Quotulatiousness

August 31, 2026

David Friedman on the racial IQ controversy

Filed under: Health, History, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — Nicholas @ 05:00

David Friedman responds to a question from one of his readers:

Lynn’s national IQ estimates (source)

    It is never too much to remember how much ethnic cleansing was made in the past based on “scientific evidence” that some races were “not as intelligent as ours” … (Comment on my blog)

Claims of this sort, about genocide, slavery, or ethnic cleansing, are offered as a reason not to talk about group differences. The implicit argument is that even if the average IQ of Africans is lower than that of Europeans or fewer women than men are talented at mathematics it is better not to say so, better to pretend it isn’t true. People making the argument rarely put it that way but it is pretty clearly what they believe.

This raises three questions. One is whether group differences exist. My view is that they almost certainly do. Darwinian evolution implies that humans are “as if designed” for reproductive success. Male and female differ in their role in reproduction so it would be surprising if the same distribution of talents were optimal for both. Africans are optimized against different environments than Europeans; that is the reason for the differences in appearance by which we distinguish them. It would again be surprising if the same distribution of abilities were optimal for both. That does not tell us what the differences are but it makes me skeptical of claims that they do not exist.

That is not, however, the subject of this post.

A second question is whether, if the claim is true, it is a valid argument for concealing true facts about group differences. It might be. If something is true and the consequences of it being known are sufficiently bad that is a reason to conceal it. Consider, for example, accurate instructions for creating a plague virus.

Whether that is the case for the existence of group differences depends on the consequences of concealing or not concealing it; my guess is that if significant group differences exist the consequences of pretending they don’t are worse than of admitting that they do1 but that is also not the subject of this post.

The third question is whether the claim is true, whether the belief that some groups were less intelligent was the cause of terrible things in the past. As far as I can tell it was not. There were terrible things done in the past and the perpetrators often expressed a low opinion of the victims but I have found no case in which supposedly scientific evidence of their inferior intelligence was the cause. In the most plausible cases, mass killing of Jews, Slavs and Romani by the Nazis, prejudice and conflict long predated the purported scientific evidence.

Consider some examples of terrible things.

Ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia, so far as I can tell, had nothing to do with scientific evidence, real or bogus, about the relative intelligence of races. In some cases the cleansers and their victims differed only in whether their ancestors had or had not converted to Islam in the distant past. In others, the justification offered for the cleansing was “it’s historically our land, and they have taken it over by immigrating and having more babies than we did”.

The largest race killing in the post-war period may have been the Hutu/Tutsi conflicts in southern Africa.2 The victims were mostly Tutsi, an ethnic minority that before independence been the dominant group.3 It is hard to believe that any significant amount of it was motivated by evidence of their inferior IQ.

What about the Holocaust? Some Nazis made claims about Jewish inferiority of one sort or another but the basis for their antisemitism was the idea that Jews were race enemies, in which case the more intelligent they were, the more dangerous. One can see that pretty clearly in Henry Ford’s less malevolent version of antisemitism. The Nazis claimed that Slavs were an inferior race but their motive for killing or deporting them was to seize their land, a conflict that had been running, off and on, since medieval times. The Romani, the other major target of racial killing, were viewed as inferior but principally as criminals and vagabonds, again an issue that long predated the Nazis.


  1. Nathan Cofnas argues that the confident denial of group differences is responsible for the popularity of woke beliefs. If you know for certain that Africans and Europeans, men and women, have the same distribution of abilities it follows that any difference in group outcomes must be due to one group having a less favorable environment; if you cannot find evidence of racism, sexism, or something similar you must not be looking hard enough.
  2. The Nigerian Civil War may have killed more people but although the sides were racially different the conflict was over the attempt of the Ibo minority to secede from Nigeria.
  3. I somewhat oversimplify.

A Fighter to Make the European Skies Nazi – Nazi Rearmament 03 – Bf 109

Filed under: Germany, History, Military, Weapons, WW2 — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 04:00

World War Two
Published 30 Aug 2026

The Messerschmitt Bf 109 was designed to solve one of the fundamental problems of modern warfare: how do you gain control of the air long enough for everything else to operate unhindered? Germany’s answer was a fast, heavily armed, highly advanced fighter that became the spearhead of the Luftwaffe‘s pursuit of air superiority.

In this German Rearmament special, we trace the Bf 109 from its origins in the clandestine development programs of the 1930s to its first combat missions over Spain and its emergence as one of the defining fighters of the Second World War. We examine its revolutionary design, its development and production, its role in the emerging doctrine of Bewegungskrieg, and its deployment from the opening campaigns in Poland and France to the Battle of Britain and the vast air war over the Eastern Front.

But the 109 also exposes the limits behind the image of an unstoppable German war machine. Its narrow-track landing gear made it notoriously unforgiving, its short range limited its effectiveness over Britain, and its ageing airframe became increasingly difficult to improve as the war progressed. By the later years of the war, Germany could still produce thousands of Bf 109s, but lacked the fuel, experienced pilots, industrial resources, and ultimately the air superiority needed to make those aircraft decisive.

The Bf 109 was an exceptionally advanced fighter for its time, and in the hands of an experienced pilot it remained lethal long after its first flight. But it also became a symbol of a deeper problem within the Nazi war economy: the growing inability to replace yesterday’s weapons with tomorrow’s.

This is the story of the fighter that made Blitzkrieg possible, and the machine that stayed in the sky long after Germany had lost control of it.

Never Forget.

The unerring predictions of climate doom

Filed under: Environment, History, Media, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 03:00

On the social media site formerly known as Twitter, John Wright provides a useful timeline of climate catastrophism in response to someone posting “projected” sea rise in Florida due to global warming:

For those of you keeping track:

1. 1958 New York Times: Ice-free Arctic within 70 years.

2. 1967 Salt Lake City Tribute, quoting Paul Ehrlich: Global famine by AD 1975. Involuntary mass sterilization needed to curtail population growth.

3. 1970 Boston Globe, quoting James Lodge: Ice Age by the 21st Century.

4. 1971 Washington Post, quoting NASA: Ice Age within 50 years.

5. 1972 Brown University: Global climate deterioration due to Global Cooling.

6. 1974 Guardian: Ice Age coming fast.

7. 1974 Time Magazine: New Ice Age.

8. 1978 New York Times: No end in sight to cooling trend.

A year later, the same paper with the same somber urgency, was reporting the opposite.

9. 1979 New York Times: Global climate catastrophe. Ice-free Arctic within 70 years.

10. 1982 New York Times, quoting UN: Environmental catastrophe by AD 2000.

11. 1988 AP: Global Warming: Maldives drowned by rising sealevel within 30 years (AD 2019).

12. 1989 San Jose Mercury, quoting UN: Global Warming: nations drowned AD 2000.

13. 2000 Independent: Snowfalls a ‘thing of the past’ in England within ‘a few years’.

14. 2001 Albuquerque Journal, quoting George Hurt: Climate-change to kill New England maple syrup industry.

15. 2004 Guardian, quoting secret Pentagon report: Climate change will trigger nuclear war, submerge major European cities, Britain ‘Siberian’ by AD 2020.

16. 2006 AP, quoting Al Gore: Greenhouse gas. Point of no return in 10 years (AD 2016).

17. 2007 New York Times, quoting UN: Point of no return by 2012.

18. 2007 Canwest News: Ice-free Arctic by AD 2010 or 2015.

19. 2007 AP, quoting NASA: Ice-free Arctic by AD 2012.

20. 2007 BBC: Ice-free Arctic before AD 2013.

21. 2008 Xinhua (Chinese News), quoting Norwegian official: Ice-free Arctic.

22. 2008 New Scientist Magazine, quoting director National Snow and Ice Data Center: Ice-Free Arctic by AD 2008 (that year).

23. 2008 National Geographic, quoting scientist: Ice-Free Arctic by AD 2008 (that year).

24. 2008 AP, quoting NASA: Ice-Free Arctic by AD 2013 to 2018.

25. 2009 USA Today, quoting Al Gore: Ice-Free Arctic by AD 2014.

Note that on or about this time, circa 2010, the Glacier National Park erected signs warning that all glaciers would be melted entirely away by AD 2020

26. 2012 Australian: Snow gone by AD 2020.

27. 2013 Guardian: Ice-Free Arctic by 2015, will trigger methane catastrophe.

28. 2017 Sydney Morning Herald: Climate Changes to curtail Australia’s ski industry.

29. 2018 Forbes, quoting Harvard University: Ice-Free Arctic by AD 2022. Chance of any permanent ice remaining is “essentially zero”. (Despite these odds, 5.6 million square miles remain.)

30. 2018 Greta Thunberg, autistic schoolgirl, quoting ‘Top Climate Scientist’: Humans to go extinct if Climate Change not fixed by AD 2023. All humanity to perish unless fossil fuel use stopped within five years.

31. 2021 LA Times: No Snow in California by “sooner than you think”.

32. 2022 Bloomberg: End of Snow threatens to upend 76 million American lives.

Please note that in AD 2020, Glacier National Park (see above) removed the signs predicting the glaciers clearly looming above the sightseers were to have had vanished by now.

Terrible Naval Plans – Five of the worst ideas of naval history

Filed under: Britain, Germany, History, Military, USA, WW1, WW2 — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 02:00

Drachinifel
Published 22 Apr 2026

Today we look at some of the worst thought out naval strategies and plans of all time, as selected by me.

00:00 – Intro
00:34 – Selection Criteria
02:17 – The 1914 Dardanelles Bombardment
11:38 – Britain’s post-WW2 Carrier Plan
29:01 – Germany’s High Seas Fleet Build-Up
38:43 – French attempts to invade Ireland
44:16 – The US “we don’t need a navy” plan

QotD: India, “coasting on inertia”?

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Government, India, Quotations — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 01:00

There are lots of examples of “nations” that don’t have any real reason to exist as coherent political entities. All of Africa, for instance, but also India, and they’re a pretty good test case for how far coasting on inertia can take you. I didn’t get into any trouble when I was there – I’m the law-abiding sort, and besides, I was a guest in their country β€” but I knew that, should trouble find me, the first thing I was going to do was hand Officer Friendly-ji my passport … in which he would find two nice crisp Tubmans. And if that didn’t solve the problem, I’d invite him to come down to the ATM with me and figure it out from there.

Moreover, if I happened to witness a crime … well, that wasn’t going to happen. I’d make sure of it. Pro wrestling referees got nothing on me. But if somehow I did get roped into an investigation, I was going to flee to the nearest Western embassy and hole up like Julian Assange. As with the Tubmans-in-the-passport thing, this is not because I condone or encourage crime. I really hope they find the guy whodunit, and nail his balls to the wall … in the abstract. But in the concrete, my main concern is that Officer Friendly-ji will have much less paperwork, and far more business opportunities, by pinning it on the burra sahib, so sahib β€” that would be me β€” is making his pasty pale ass scarce.

This is not a blanket condemnation of the Indian police. Rather, it’s an acknowledgement of reality. India is a huge country of over a billion people, in which there are at least 30 major languages (= “spoken by over a million people”) and a thousand minor ones. There are at least six major religions, the adherents of which are always bickering with each other. Even granting that every single national official in India has the wisdom of Solon, how the hell are they supposed to pass laws that mean anything under those conditions?

The administration of “justice”, then, devolves to the lowest common denominator in the localities. About which I know nothing, which makes me a nice fat target, so … yeah. How many dolla dolla bills to make this go away, Inspector?

Severian, “Friday Mailbag”, Founding Questions, 2022-07-22.

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