Quotulatiousness

October 18, 2011

NFL week 6 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:43

Staying (barely) above even in this week’s predictions. Dropping in the AoSHQ pool, however, as I’m now sharing a three-way tie for ninth.

    @Atlanta 31 Carolina 17
    @Cincinnati 27 Indianapolis 17
    @Detroit 19 San Francisco 25
    @Green Bay 24 St. Louis 3
    @New York (NYG) 27 Buffalo 24
    @Pittsburgh 17 Jacksonville 13
    Philadelphia 20 @Washington 13
    @Oakland 24 Cleveland 17
    @Baltimore 29 Houston 14
    New England 20 Dallas 16
    New Orleans 20 @Tampa Bay 26
    @Chicago 39 Minnesota 10
    @New York (NYJ) 24 Miami 6

This week 8-5 (7-6 against the spread)
Season to date 59-31

October 17, 2011

The Vikings’ litany of mistakes, miscues, and brain farts yesterday

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:52

Vikings stink up Soldier Field, losing 39-10 to the Bears

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 00:11

The difference between this loss and the earlier losses is that the Vikings were never in this game. Chicago jumped out to an early lead, and never looked back. The normally great first-half defence didn’t show up tonight, and the offence was its usual anaemic self.

The Vikings had done well to avoid injuries so far this season, but lost several players to injury over the course of the game, including safety Jamarca Sandford, offensive tackle Phil Loadholt, and centre John Sullivan. With two offensive line starters out, Donovan McNabb was running for his life back there.

On the good side of the ledger, after a quiet start, Jared Allen got a sack and stripped the ball from Jay Cutler. The Vikings turned that into 6 points on an Adrian Peterson run. Late in the game, Christian Ponder took over at quarterback for Donovan McNabb, and showed some nice situational awareness (avoiding the pass rush) and good accuracy and distance downfield. Other than that, there wasn’t much for Vikings fans to cheer.

After the game, coach Leslie Frazier was careful not to commit himself about who will start next Sunday’s game, but Andrew Kulha at Bleacher Reports is sure that we’ve seen the start of a new quarterback era:

It may be time for former Philadelphia Eagles star, former Washington Redskins mistake and current Minnesota Vikings quarterback Donovan McNabb to take his curtain call.

It’s been a great run for McNabb, but it’s probably best to stop digging while he still has a chance to get out of the hole that is the latter stages of his career.

Christopher Gates at the Daily Norseman agrees:

Statistically, if you look at Donovan McNabb’s line from Sunday night, it doesn’t look like he played all that badly. . .he only threw five incompletions on the evening, and put up 177 passing yards. However, as the fourth quarter started at Soldier Field on Sunday evening, Minnesota Vikings’ head coach Leslie Frazier decided that the time had finally come.

And, with that, the Christian Ponder era got underway in Minnesota.

Sure, by the time that Ponder got into the game, the Vikings only had five healthy offensive lineman. . .Phil Loadholt was out of the game with an (as of now) undisclosed injury, and John Sullivan suffered a concussion early in the second half. As the Vikings only had seven offensive linemen dressed on the evening, another injury probably would have seen Jim Kleinsasser lining up at tackle or guard. However, despite that, and despite spending most of the evening running for his life, Ponder was not sacked once in 18 pass attempts, and completed 10 of his passes for 99 yards in his quarter of work.

Update: Tom Pelissero sums up the brief (about a quarter) appearance of Christian Ponder:

Ponder made his NFL debut with 14 minutes, 43 seconds remaining in Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears, who led 39-10 and sacked starter Donovan McNabb five times.

“I don’t see it ending like this, as you say,” McNabb said. “But it’s tough. You’re one-and-five at this particular point. I felt like we did a lot of great things (Sunday). But I guess we’ll sit down to talk, but I still expect to be in there next week.”

Ponder was 9-of-17 passing for 99 yards (52.9%) and a 70.5 rating over two drives, both ending with fourth-down passes caught short of the first-down marker. But the rookie first-round picks’s skills were on display as he repeatedly escaped pressure and made several rhythm throws into tight windows.

He scrambled for 8 yards and a first down on his second snap. His first throw was a swing pass to Adrian Peterson for no gain and his second a touch pass to Percy Harvin for 20.

“I thought he did a good job under the circumstances,” Frazier said. “We’ll go back and look at the tape and fully evaluate it. But it seems like he moved around pretty good.”

Ponder was 5-of-10 passing for 58 yards on his first drive, which went 69 yards in 12 plays before a fourth-and-10 throw to Visanthe Shiancoe gained only 9, stalling the Vikings at the Chicago 12-yard line. The Vikings’ next drive went 40 yards in eight plays before stalling at the Chicago 30.

“I was very grateful for the opportunity that Coach let me go in,” Ponder said. “I thought I made some plays, thought I missed some plays, missed a couple throws. But I definitely had fun. It’s always hard to have fun when you’re losing that bad, but I was grateful and I definitely had fun.”

Update, the second: In his column at the Pioneer Press, Tom Powers suggests it’s time for a fire sale:

Vikings for sale! Vikings for sale! Cheap!

Not the team, but individual players. Hey, all you NFL general managers out there, get your very own Minnesota Vikings player. Take him home to play with your kids. Let him tend to the petunias in the garden. Have him wash the car. All we ask for is a seventh-round draft pick in return. And, of course, you take over paying his salary.

The NFL trade deadline almost always passes unnoticed. It’s not a big deal the way it is in other sports where there is a flurry of last-minute activity. The Vikings desperately need to change all that.

The 2011 deadline is Tuesday. It should be a very big deal. There ought to be balloons, parades and free hot dogs at Winter Park if Rick Spielman, the Vikings’ Invisible Man, can partially salvage a lost season by dumping veterans for draft picks. Even very low draft picks would be swell. So would a bag of Doritos.

October 16, 2011

Will Andrew Luck be the next Peyton Manning or the next Ryan Leaf?

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 11:08

Judy Battista looks at the plight of the fans of losing NFL teams who are torn between cheering their teams for a win, or hoping to lose badly enough to get the first pick in the 2012 draft:

Last weekend was a good one for Chris Joseph. The Miami Dolphins, the team he has rooted for since he was a child and about whom he runs a blog called Fins Nation, had a bye. Joseph was freed. Not from despair that the Dolphins might lose. But from the fear that they might win and ruin everything.

The Dolphins (0-4), who play the Jets on Monday night and are one of three winless teams, are in a race for the bottom of the N.F.L. standings. But with ignominy this autumn comes glory next spring. There, for the team with the worst record and the first overall draft pick, awaits Andrew Luck, considered the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning.

While Luck, coveted for his accuracy and intelligence, enjoys his final season at Stanford, he has inadvertently turned beleaguered followers of struggling N.F.L.’s teams on their heads. From Seattle to Miami, rather than root for a win, fans root for him. Their feelings are summed up in a coarse three-word rhyme that has given shape to Twitter feeds, Facebook pages and dozens of Web sites. It implores downtrodden teams, in essence, to play really, really poorly for Luck.

Remember that college stars do not automatically become NFL stars: there was much debate over whether the best quarterback prospect in the 1998 draft was Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf. We know now, but opinions were quite divided then.

October 15, 2011

NFL week 6 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 00:08

I don’t have any particular advice to offer to other prognosticators this week, as even though I’m doing well overall, it is often the picks I’m most comfortable with that go sour on me and those I’m iffy about work out well. Here are my best guesses for this weekend’s games (favourite listed first):

    @Atlanta vs Carolina (4.0) Sun 10/16 1:00pm
    @Cincinnati vs Indianapolis (7.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Detroit vs San Francisco (4.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Green Bay vs St. Louis (15.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @New York (NYG) vs Buffalo (3.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville (12.0) Sun 1:00pm
    Philadelphia vs @Washington (1.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Oakland vs Cleveland (6.5) Sun 4:05pm
    @Baltimore vs Houston (7.5) Sun 4:05pm
    New England vs Dallas (7.0) Sun 4:15pm
    New Orleans vs @Tampa Bay (4.5) Sun 4:15pm
    @Chicago vs Minnesota (3.0) Sun 8:20pm
    @New York (NYJ) vs Miami (7.0) Mon 8:30pm

Last week 8-5 (6-7 against the spread)
Season to date 51-26

October 11, 2011

NFL week 5 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 09:05

The Vikings finally got a win, but my predictions drop a bit towards average, still maintaining that logjam for third place in the Ace of Spades HQ Yahoo! group. This was the first bye week, so only 13 games were played:

    Philadelphia 24 @Buffalo31
    @Indianapolis 24 Kansas City 28
    @Minnesota 34 Arizona 10
    @New York (NYG) 25 Seattle 36
    @Pittsburgh 38 Tennessee 17
    New Orleans 30 @Carolina 27
    @Jacksonville 20 Cincinnati 30
    @Houston 20 Oakland 25
    @San Francisco 48 Tampa Bay 3
    San Diego 29 @Denver 24
    @New England 30 New York (NYJ) 21
    Green Bay 25 @Atlanta 14
    @Detroit 24 Chicago 13

This week 8-5 (6-7 against the spread)
Season to date 51-26

October 10, 2011

Vikings finally keep a lead through an entire game

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 11:00

The 2011 Minnesota Vikings had developed a terrible habit of only playing well in the first half of games, allowing teams to beat them in the second half. Last week’s game didn’t fit the pattern, as the team played terribly in both the first and the second half. This week started to look like the pattern had been re-established as the Vikings played an excellent ground game and took advantage of turnovers to jump out to a 28-3 lead at the half (time of possession favoured the Cardinals 2:1 at this point).

Cynics among the fan base were wondering how Arizona was going to come back from that deep a deficit — not if, but how. Well the cynics were wrong: the Cardinals couldn’t come back from being that far down, so the Vikings finally win their first game of the season. The pattern did hold true, though, as Arizona did outscore the Vikings in the second half, just not by enough.

Christopher Gates of the Daily Norseman:

The Vikings were paced by a huge first quarter, in which they tied a franchise record by scoring 28 points in the game’s first fifteen minutes. The only other time they’ve accomplished that was in a blowout victory over the Green Bay Packers on September 28, 1986. The four touchdowns in that game were all touchdown passes by Tommy Kramer. . .the four touchdowns the Vikings got today all came via the ground, with three from Adrian Peterson (from 4, 24, and 14 yards) and a 4-yard run by Donovan McNabb.

The defense keyed the fast start as well, as they were dominant in the first quarter of play. The Cardinals’ first 13 offensive plays consisted of three three-and-outs, two turnovers, another fumble that went out of bounds, and one completed pass. Jared Allen and Brian Robison each had two sacks on the afternoon, and JaMarca Sanford intercepted two Kevin Kolb passes on the afternoon, with Asher Allen throwing in a third.

As several people have noted, Sanford’s two picks now give him the same number of catches on the season as our putative number one receiver, Bernard Berrian (who was deactivated for this game). The other player on the hotseat, quarterback Donovan McNabb, didn’t make a strong case for himself either, completing only 10-of-21 for 169 yards which moves his passer rating to a very mediocre 80 for the season.

Jeremy Fowler at the Vikings Now blog:

But the spotlight is still placed directly on the passing game, which has struggled with or without the inactive Bernard Berrian. Take away McNabb’s 60-yard gain to receiver Devin Aromashodu midway through the third quarter — an impressive across-the-middle throw, to be sure — and McNabb was 9-of 21 for 109 yards.

He was 3-of-10 on third down for the day while routinely missing receivers short on short or intermediate routes — sometimes five or six yards short. Cardinals defenders dropped what should have been two easy interceptions. Percy Harvin, the Vikings’ top receiver, got two targets and caught one pass for 12 yards. “There is no go-to guy right now,” McNabb said. “We’re all still getting comfortable in this offense and working on each other’s timing and chemistry.”

Maybe Christian Ponder’s not ready, and that’s fine. But McNabb must improve the accuracy for the Vikings to survive the next two weeks entering the teeth of the NFC North schedule. Speaking of the schedule…

Dan Zinski at The Viking Age:

Much of the anxiety, expressed by Metrodome fans in the form of boos, was no doubt the lingering result of psychological trauma incurred during the previous three second half choke jobs – but a lot of it was due simply to the shaky play of McNabb. The quarterback once again showed a sometimes alarming lack of accuracy on his passes, and even his better passes were wobbly and not quite on-target. The big pass of the second half, a 60-yarder to Devin Aromashodu, looked like some kind of dying bird fluttering through the air before finally landing safely in the receiver’s hands. And even worse: an attempted short pass to Visanthe Shiancoe that landed five yards in front of the intended receiver, causing the fans to jeer, McNabb to laugh and Shiancoe to get into it with his quarterback on the sideline.

This week McNabb got away with his lame-duck passes, thanks to Adrian Peterson’s hard running and the defense’s uncharacteristic ball-hawking, but that doesn’t mean the McNabb problem has suddenly disappeared. Accuracy remains a big issue for this quarterback and I don’t see that reality changing any time soon. The Vikings were fortunate that this week they faced a quarterback, Kevin Kolb, who is possibly even worse than McNabb. The defense stepped up big and Peterson did his part – even though he once again found tough sledding in the second half – but you can’t expect that sort of performance every week. At some point you need your quarterback to contribute more than 169 yards on 48% passing. A win is great but it doesn’t erase the fact that the passing game is still not anywhere near effective enough for this team to compete consistently.

Does a win keep Berrian and McNabb afloat for another week?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 00:01

It must be bad if the home team is up 21 points and the fans in the stadium are still booing the starting quarterback. McNabb is a tough guy: he’s heard the boo-birds often enough in Philadelphia, but it must be hard to cope with this level of rejection at this stage of his career. Bernard Berrian was benched for this game and his replacement does more than enough to make a case for being his permanent replacement. Will this be the week that the team parts company with their under-productive number 1 receiver?

Tom Pelissero:

The Vikings raced to a 28-0 lead in the first 12½ minutes on Sunday in spite of McNabb, not because of him. They held on despite a remarkable series of misfires that drew boos and chants of “WE WANT PONDER!” from the first quarter to the fourth.

“I can’t worry about that,” McNabb said. “I don’t worry about it at all, because at the end of the day, they look up and they see a win.”

This win was all about a defense that was opportunistic and unrelenting, sacking Kevin Kolb four times and forcing four turnovers on a day top cornerback Antoine Winfield was sidelined with a neck strain.

The offense fizzled after first-quarter touchdown drives of 18, 24 and 25 yards set up by defense and special teams, plus a 73-yarder keyed by Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson’s 36-yard pass interference penalty. McNabb completed only 10 of 21 passes, nearly was intercepted twice and threw a handful of others into the ground.

October 9, 2011

Is this the beginning of the end for Bernard Berrian as a Viking?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:56

Tom Pelissero has the story:

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Bernard Berrian was a surprise inactive for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals at the Metrodome.

Cornerback Antoine Winfield also was inactive, but that doesn’t come as a surprise given that he did not practice last week because of a neck injury. Chris Kluwe, who was bothered by a hamstring injury and missed two days of practice last week, will handle the punting duties for the 0-4 Vikings.

Berrian was not listed on the injury report during the week and although he has only two receptions this season, the move almost certainly comes as punishment for Berrian’s exchange on Twitter last Sunday with Rep. John Kriesel, R-Cottage Grove.

[. . .]

Frazier clearly was not pleased and made that clear on Monday.

“I have talked to Bernard and we do … matter of fact Bob (Hagan, the Vikings director of public relations) and some of our PR people actually talk with our team once we come to training camp,” Frazier said. “Just about social media and what our relationship should be with social media.

“It’s something we’ve talked about, something we’ll continue to deal with and talk about. Bernard kind of knows where we stand on that issue and we’ll move on from there. … We want to make sure that our focus is on football and trying to win football games. I think going forward he’ll handle things the right way.”

October 8, 2011

NFL week 5 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 11:07

Last week was pretty good for me (if not for my favourite team), keeping me in logjam tie for third place in one of the Ace of Spades HQ Yahoo! groups. Let’s see how well I can predict this week’s games (first bye week, so only 13 games being played):

    Philadelphia vs @Buffalo (2.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Indianapolis vs Kansas City (2.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Minnesota vs Arizona (2.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @New York (NYG) vs Seattle (10.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Pittsburgh vs Tennessee (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    New Orleans vs @Carolina (6.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Jacksonville vs Cincinnati (2.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Houston vs Oakland (6.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @San Francisco vs Tampa Bay (3.0) Sun 4:05pm
    San Diego vs @Denver (4.0) Sun 4:15pm
    @New England vs New York (NYJ) (9.0) Sun 4:15pm
    Green Bay vs @Atlanta (6.0) Sun 8:20pm
    @Detroit vs Chicago (5.5) Mon 8:30pm

Last week 12-4 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 43-21

October 4, 2011

NFL Week 4 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:49

A pretty good weekend for my picks, although I’m still chasing the leaders in the AoSHQ pool (now in a 7-way tie for third).

  • @Chicago 34 Carolina 29
  • Buffalo 20 @Cincinnati 23
  • @Cleveland 13 Tennessee 31
  • @Dallas 30 Detroit 34
  • Minnesota 17 @Kansas City 22
  • Washington 17 @St. Louis 10
  • @Philadelphia 23 San Francisco 24
  • New Orleans 23 @Jacksonville 10
  • @Houston 17 Pittsburgh 10
  • New York (NYG) 31 @Arizona 27
  • Atlanta 30 @Seattle 28
  • @Green Bay 49 Denver 23
  • New England 31 @Oakland 19
  • @San Diego 26 Miami 16
  • @Baltimore 34 New York (NYJ) 17
  • @Tampa Bay 24 Indianapolis 17

This week 12-4 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 43-21

October 3, 2011

Time to consider a change at quarterback?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:46

Tom Pelissero of ESPN1500.com reports after yesterday’s game in Kansas City.

October 2, 2011

Vikings finally break habit of stinking in 2nd half by stinking equally in both

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 18:03

After showing some excellent results in the first half of each of the first three games of the season, then mentally checking out for the second half, Minnesota finally broke the habit. Unfortunately, they broke the good habit, not the bad one, falling to the 0-3 Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 22-17.

One thing most seem to agree on is that even if he’s not the worst problem, Donovan McNabb has failed to live up to expectations. He’s been throwing the ball erratically and off-target (one Twitter comment jibed that he’s the perfect QB if receivers could catch with their feet). He was brought in on a one-year contract to take care of the team until Christian Ponder was ready to take over. “Taking care” of the team isn’t quite what you’d describe what he’s done in the last four games.

The argument is that it can be very bad to throw a rookie quarterback in before he’s ready to take over: some thrive, but many sink (taking their teams with them). The counter argument is simple: we’ve already taken four torpedoes, so why not give the keys to Ponder? If we continue to lose, we’ll be early favourites for the first pick in the draft next year (the “Suck for Luck” pick).

Here’s the immediate reaction to the game from various folks in the Vikings fan base and in the media:

  • Clint Starks, Viking Age: “With the Vikes moving to 0-4 and McNabb playing at what looks to be an all-time low the question moves to Ponder. Fans across Viking Nation are wondering when we were see the cocksure rookie from Florida State. Next week could present a good opportunity for the young rookie as the Arizona Cardinals are coming to Mall of America field.”
  • Eric J. Thompson, Daily Norseman: “For the fourth straight week, the Vikings have wrestled defeat away from the jaws of victory. It was more of the same for the hapless Vikes, coming up small against the Chiefs at the most inopportune times. Donovan McNabb missed passes with alarming consistency. Adrian Peterson was largely ignored in the second half game plan. The tired and inept secondary got burned. The pass rush disappeared.”
  • Tom Pelissero, ESPN1500.com: “Leslie Frazier said the Minnesota Vikings must “reevaluate everything” in the wake of their fourth consecutive loss on Sunday.
  • “That apparently won’t include giving consideration to replacing starting quarterback Donovan McNabb with rookie first-round draft pick Christian Ponder beginning next week against Arizona.”

  • Ray Tannock, BleacherReport.com: “Without giving away too much, some of the rising whispers in Minnesota have been for the possible sacking of quarterback Donovan McNabb in favor of the anticipated “quarterback of the future” Christian Ponder.
  • “Another comment that has passed in the wind over the weeks is whether or not this set of coordinators even know what they are doing.

    “Defensive coordinator Fred Pagac’s inability to adjust to the opposition and Offensive coordinator’ Bill Musgrave’s inability to get the right players on the field and involved, have been a growing concern in the minds of Vikings fans; concerns that haven’t had much resolution through three games.”

The greatest 0-3 team ever?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 10:50

Christopher Gates at the Daily Norseman summarizes an argument from a behind-the-paywall ESPN Insider article:

First off, according to the article, only six teams in NFL history have had the same sort of dominance in the first halves of football games that the 2011 Minnesota Vikings have shown (scoring more than 50 points while allowing 7 or fewer). The Vikings have outscored their opponents 54-7 in the first half this year. Here are the other teams that fall into that same category.

Team Year Points For Points Against
Seattle Seahawks 2006 55 6
Dallas Cowboys 1973 53 6
Los Angeles Rams 1970 63 6
San Diego Chargers 1961 73 3
Cleveland Browns 1947 75 7
Cleveland Browns 1946 55 0

One minor difference between the 2011 Vikings and those other six teams . . . the six teams listed above all went 3-0. Minnesota has managed to go 0-3.

ESPN even managed to put a number on the odds of the Vikings’ losing all three of their games in the fashion that they have. With win probabilities at halftime ranging from 84.9% in the game against the Chargers to 97.1% in last week’s game against Detroit, ESPN put the odds of the Vikings losing their first three games with the halftime leads they had at 3,800-to-1. To put it another way, if you could have placed an actual bet of $50 on such a thing occurring, you would have walked away with a cool $190,000.

October 1, 2011

NFL week 4 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 00:01

Last week wasn’t stellar, but it kept me above water in the pool (actually, against the spread, I’m currently in an eight-way tie for third place in one of the Ace of Spades HQ Yahoo! groups). Let’s see how well I can predict this week’s games:

  • @Chicago vs Carolina (6.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • Buffalo vs @Cincinnati (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
  • @Cleveland vs Tennessee (1.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • @Dallas vs Detroit (1.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • Minnesota vs @Kansas City (1.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • Washington vs @St. Louis (1.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • @Philadelphia vs San Francisco (8.5) Sun 1:00pm
  • New Orleans vs @Jacksonville (7.0) Sun 1:00pm
  • @Houston vs Pittsburgh (4.0) Sun 1:00pm
  • New York (NYG) vs @Arizona (1.5) Sun 4:15pm
  • Atlanta vs @Seattle (4.5) Sun 4:15pm
  • @Green Bay vs Denver (12.5) Sun 4:15pm
  • New England vs @Oakland (4.5) Sun 4:15pm
  • @San Diego vs Miami (7.0) Sun 4:15pm
  • @Baltimore vs New York (NYJ) (3.5) Sun 8:20pm
  • @Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis (10.0) Mon 8:30pm

Last week 10-6 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 31-17

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