Quotulatiousness

November 16, 2011

The (sad) tale of the tape

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 09:36

Tom Pelissero has the task of going through the tape of Monday night’s game against the Packers, doing the stats and assessing the play of the team. It’s not a happy job:

Here’s the tale of the tape from the Minnesota Vikings’ 45-7 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with grades on a scale of 0 to 5 in parentheses:

Quarterbacks (1)

Packers DC Dom Capers pulled out all the stops to chase and confuse QB Christian Ponder (62 snaps), who looked truly flustered at times for the first time in his young career. Using 11 different combinations of blitzers and mixing man and zone coverage behind them, Capers sent 28 patterns (rushes involving inside linebackers or defensive backs) in Ponder’s 36 dropbacks (77.8%), including the last nine in a row despite leading by 30-plus. MLB Desmond Bishop blitzed most frequently (13 times), followed by CB Charles Woodson (seven), BLB A.J. Hawk (seven), subpackage CB Jarrett Bush (six), FS Morgan Burnett (three) and CB Tramon Williams (one). The result was three sacks, 17 total QB pressures, three passes batted at the line and a 16-of-34 passing line (47.1%) that could have been worse if Ponder hadn’t stuck several tough throws into traffic. A flat-footed strike up the seam for 33 on third-and-4 was as good as it got. Ponder made one terrible decision, turning a flea-flicker into an interception for Williams even though the Packers had the right defense to defend it. Woodson missed chances for two more interceptions — one on a late crossing throw, the other when two players collided in pattern. A fumble caused by LOLB Clay Matthews’ sack was recovered by a teammate. Ponder scrambled twice for 17 yards. It seemed like Capers was in the Vikings huddle with the way the Packers kept taking away bootlegs, screens and other manufactured plays. One of Ponder’s three “explosive” completions and 38 of his 190 passing yards (20%) came on the final drive, after Green Bay had pulled several starters. The rookie has long way to go, but don’t they all? Joe Webb (three) took a counter option for 6 yards on his lone snap under center and played two snaps at receiver, catching his first NFL pass for 9 yards on a long drag against Woodson on third-and-18.

The rest of the article is just as depressing as this. The highest mark he hands out is a bare (2) to the defensive line. The receivers and the defensive backs each got half a mark, which may be too generous. You may have the best running back in the NFL (and I think they do), but if you can’t pass and you can’t stop your opponent from passing, it is not going to make enough of a difference.

November 15, 2011

Vikings show no life in loss to Packers

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:46

This was an ugly game. It will turn up on Wikipedia as the definitive video illustration for both “ugly” and “futile”. Unlike the last match-up between the Vikings and Packers at the Metrodome, there are no positives to dwell on: it was an old-fashioned butt-whipping. It was so bad that the Vikings looked pathetic against the Green Bay backups. According to a tweet from Jeremy Fowler, this is the Vikings’ worst loss since “a 51-7 clubbing by San Francisco on Dec. 8, 1984”.

For next week’s game, the Vikings are going to be starting the press corps in their secondary: injuries against Green Bay included cornerback Antoine Winfield with a fractured clavicle (probably ending his season), safety Husain Abdullah with a concussion (his second of the season), and cornerback Cedric Griffin just being himself (playing on two reconstructed knees). What would have been even more depressing for Viking fans — if the sportscasters had bothered to mention it — was quarterback Christian Ponder heading to the locker room for X-rays (negative, thank goodness).

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NFL week 10 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:39

It seems appropriate that an ugly weekend should end in an ugly loss at Lambeau Field. My only consolation is, um, well, I’m sure there’s something there to take consolation from. I now have a half-share of 13th spot in the AoSHQ pool, six points back of the leader.

    @San Diego 17 Oakland 24
    @Atlanta 23 New Orleans 26
    Pittsburgh 24 @Cincinnati 17
    @Cleveland 12 St. Louis 13
    @Dallas 44 Buffalo 7
    Jacksonville 17 @Indianapolis 3
    @Kansas City 10 Denver 17
    @Miami 20 Washington 9
    @Philadelphia 17 Arizona 21
    Houston 37 @Tampa Bay 9
    @Carolina 3 Tennessee 30
    Baltimore 17 @Seattle 22
    @Chicago 37 Detroit 13
    @San Francisco 27 New York (NYG) 20
    @New York (NYJ) 16 New England 37
    @Green Bay 45 Minnesota 7

This week: 7-9 (7-9 against the spread)
Season to date 87-59

November 13, 2011

NFL week 10 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 12:09

Well, the early game was a disappointment, as San Diego not only didn’t cover the spread, they lost the game. Hopefully the rest of my picks will return to above average form.

    @San Diego 17 Oakland 24

    @Atlanta vs New Orleans (0.0) Sun 1:00pm
    Pittsburgh vs @Cincinnati (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Cleveland vs St. Louis (2.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Dallas vs Buffalo (5.5) Sun 1:00pm
    Jacksonville vs @Indianapolis (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Kansas City vs Denver (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Miami vs Washington (3.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Philadelphia vs Arizona (0) Sun 1:00pm
    Houston vs @Tampa Bay (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Carolina vs Tennessee (3.0) Sun 1:00pm
    Baltimore vs @Seattle (6.5) Sun 4:05pm
    @Chicago vs Detroit (2.5) Sun 4:15pm
    @San Francisco vs New York (NYG) (3.5) Sun 4:15pm
    @New York (NYJ) vs New England (1.5) Sun 8:20pm
    @Green Bay vs Minnesota (13.5) Mon 8:30pm

Last week: 6-8
Season to date 80-51

November 10, 2011

Early game prediction, NFL week 10

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 12:52

I’ll post the rest of my picks on Sunday, but here’s tonight’s game prediction best guess:

     @San Diego vs Oakland (7.0) Thu 8:20pm

Season to date 80-50

San Diego is a good team, they’re sure to cover the spread, right?

John Scalzi on the Penn State child rape cover-up

In four points, John Scalzi walks us through what should have happened at Penn State when the first incident was discovered:

1. When, as an adult, you come come across another adult raping a small child, you should a) do everything in your power to rescue that child from the rapist, b) call the police the moment it is practicable.

2. If your adult son calls you to tell you that he just saw another adult raping a small child, but then left that small child with the rapist, and then asks you what he should do, you should a) tell him to get off the phone with you and call the police immediately, b) call the police yourself and make a report, c) at the appropriate time in the future ask your adult son why the fuck he did not try to save that kid.

3. If your underling comes to you to report that he saw another man, also your underling, raping a small child, but then left that small child with the rapist, you should a) call the police immediately, b) alert your own superiors, c) immediately suspend the alleged rapist underling from his job responsibilities pending a full investigation, d) at the appropriate time in the future ask that first underling why the fuck he did not try to save that kid.

4. When, as the officials of an organization, you are approached by an underling who tells you that one of his people saw another of his people raping a small child at the organization, in organization property, you should a) call the police immediately, b) immediately suspend the alleged rapist from his job responsibilities if the immediate supervisor has not already done so, c) when called to a grand jury to testify on the matter, avoid perjuring yourself. At no time should you decide that the best way to handle the situation is to simply tell the alleged rapist not to bring small children onto organization property anymore.

For “organization”, feel free to substitute “Catholic church” for “Penn State University” as required.

November 9, 2011

Penn State’s problem

Russ from Winterset loses his temper over the truly disturbing way Penn State is handling their child rape issues allegations:

So Joe Paterno is going to retire at the end of the season?

Whiskey? Tango? Foxtrot? Does Joe think he is going to be carried off the MISS PIGGY field to the BEAKER cheers of the DR. BUNSEN HONEYDEW crowd after leading Penn STADLER State to another GONZO bowl game? FOZZIE BEAR that noise. He should have the common DR. TEETH & THE ELECTRIC MAYHEM decency to slink out the back door of the coaching offices in shame like John SAM THE EAGLE Edwards leaving a session of a Federal RIZZO THE RAT Grand Jury.

That moderation expressed in my first update? KERMIT that. If Joe JANIS THE BASS PLAYER Paterno is allowed to coach another ANIMAL football game at Penn RALPH THE DOG State University, every WALDORF fan in the stadium who so much as smiles when their BERT team scores their first ERNIE touchdown can go Suck The Barbed Cock of Satan as far as I’m concerned.

BIG BIRD! Now I’m pissed.

And when you come back with the “look at all he’s done for the community” card, tell me this. How many other kids have been raped since 2002 because JoePa and the other jackasses at Penn State didn’t think it was necessary to get the police involved in this situation? Ten? Five? Even one? Is that a fair trade for all that Joe Paterno has done for his community?

If it’s not quite clear from context, he “replace[d] all but one of my f-bombs in the original draft of the post with the names of Muppet Characters”

November 8, 2011

NFL week 9 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:27

This was a bad week to take the home team: most teams lost at home this weekend.

    @Buffalo 11 New York (NYJ) 27
    @Dallas 23 Seattle 13
    Atlanta 31 @Indianapolis 7
    @Kansas City 3 Miami 31
    @New Orleans 27 Tampa Bay 16
    San Francisco 19 @Washington 11
    @Houston 30 Cleveland 12
    @Tennessee 17 Cincinnati 24
    @Oakland 24 Denver 38
    @New England 20 New York (NYG) 24
    @Arizona 19 St. Louis 13
    Green Bay 45 @San Diego 38
    @Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 23
    @Philadelphia 24 Chicago 30

This week 6-8 (7-7 against the spread)
Season to date 80-50

November 7, 2011

Occupy Winter Park!

Filed under: Business, Football, Government, Politics — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 13:35

Minnesota is blessed with some particularly colourful legislators, but all of them must take second place to State Representative Phyllis Kahn. She has a long history of, shall we say, “imaginative” legislative proposals, and this one is a doozy:

Throw in one more idea for a new Minnesota Vikings stadium: Have the public buy shares in the team, enabling them to own a piece of the Vikings and help finance a stadium.

The community ownership idea has been floated before but Rep. Phyllis Kahn, DFL-Minneapolis, said Monday she would introduce legislation to require Gov. Mark Dayton and the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission to work with the National Football League to make it happen. The commission owns the downtown Minneapolis Metrodome, the team’s home for nearly 30 years.

“Dayton asked for all ideas to be put on the table and that’s exactly what I’m doing here,” said Kahn. “No single idea [for funding a new stadium] has gained enough traction to pass the Legislature.”

The Vikings are hoping to get a new stadium built, and the state legislature has been doing what they can to kick the issue down the road every time it’s come up. I don’t have a say in the matter, as I’m not located in Minnesota and I’d probably still cheer for the team even if it moved elsewhere (though it would be a sad thing to see it move after half a century in Minnesota).

In general, I don’t think governments should build stadiums for professional sports teams, as it’s using tax money to subsidize private profits. If a new stadium is going to generate a profit, the team’s ownership should bear the costs themselves. The fact that they generally don’t — mostly because politicians don’t want to deal with angry sports fans after the team leaves town — doesn’t make it right.

However, Rep. Kahn’s proposal won’t fly because the NFL itself forbids public ownership of teams (the grandfathered-in exception being the Green Bay Packers). What’s even more interesting about her plan is that the proceeds of selling shares in the team would be put directly towards building a new stadium:

The funds from selling stock in the Vikings, said Kahn, could go toward helping the team build a new stadium. She added that, under her plan, Vikings owner Zygi Wilf and his family could retain a 30 percent controlling interest in the team.

So the Wilfs will be allowed to retain a minority share, but wouldn’t be compensated for the proportion of the stock that was being sold? Isn’t that just expropriation? I didn’t realize the DFL was a modern-day successor to Mussolini’s Fascist Party.

November 6, 2011

NFL week 9 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 12:07

My team is enjoying a bye this week, so I’m not passionately interested in the outcomes of today’s games except for my NFL pool. I like the favourites in almost all the games this week (danger sign number 1) except for Seattle (danger sign number 2), and that’s mainly because I don’t think Dallas will beat the spread.

    @Buffalo vs New York (NYJ) (2.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Dallas vs Seattle (11.5) Sun 1:00pm
    Atlanta vs @Indianapolis (7.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Kansas City vs Miami (4.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @New Orleans vs Tampa Bay (8.0) Sun 1:00pm
    San Francisco vs @Washington (3.5) Sun 1:00pm
    @Houston vs Cleveland (11.0) Sun 1:00pm
    @Tennessee vs Cincinnati (3.0) Sun 4:05pm
    @Oakland vs Denver (8.0) Sun 4:05pm
    @New England vs New York (NYG) (9.0) Sun 4:15pm
    @Arizona vs St. Louis (2.5) Sun 4:15pm
    Green Bay vs @San Diego (5.5) Sun 4:15pm
    @Pittsburgh vs Baltimore (3.0) Sun 8:20pm
    @Philadelphia vs Chicago (7.5) Mon 8:30pm

Last week 10-3 (8-5 against the spread)
Season to date 74-42

November 1, 2011

NFL week 8 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:12

I’m much happier with my results this week, although it only helps me regain some of the ground I’d lost over the previous two weeks. I’m now sharing a three-way tie for tenth spot in the AoSHQ pool (six points behind the leader, but only two points out of second place).

    @Tennessee 27 Indianapolis 10
    New Orleans 21 @St. Louis 31
    @New York (NYG) 20 Miami 17
    @Carolina 21 Minnesota 24
    @Baltimore 30 Arizona 27
    @Houston 24 Jacksonville 14
    @Buffalo 23 Washington 0
    Detroit 45 @Denver 10
    New England 17 @Pittsburgh 25
    @San Francisco 20 Cleveland 10
    Cincinnati 34 @Seattle 12
    @Philadelphia 34 Dallas 7
    San Diego 20 @Kansas City 23

This week 10-3 (8-5 against the spread)
Season to date 74-42

October 31, 2011

Vikings hang on to defeat Panthers at home, 24-21

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:34

For what was billed as a team that couldn’t stop the run, Carolina certainly kept Adrian Peterson bottled up for much of the day — at least on the ground. Peterson didn’t break 100 yards of rushing, but he made up for that in receiving yards with 162 yards in total. Cam Newton did awful things to the Vikings’ secondary including a big completion on fourth-and-fourteen that kept the Panthers’ final drive alive. Christian Ponder put in a good performance at quarterback for the Vikings, making no serious mistakes and keeping the chains moving on third down, especially in the second half.

Carolina looked snake-bit early in the game, with several ugly plays that the Vikings failed to fully capitalize on. Their first possession lasted exactly one play as a strip-sack handed the ball over to the Vikings deep in Panther territory. Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson hit Newton forcing the ball out, and Jared Allen came up with the loose ball. Allen also had a sack later in the half, which also forced Newton to fumble. Allen set a new team record with a sack in ten consecutive games.

Percy Harvin, on the other hand, had a much more up-and-down game. He scored a rushing touchdown, but was also stripped of the ball deep in Panthers’ territory, and also drew a 15-yard penalty for what looked like a fistfight with Carolina’s Captain Munnerlyn well off the playing field (actually at the Panthers’ bench).

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October 30, 2011

NFL week 8 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 11:03

After a strong start in the prediction business, my picks have been regressing to the mean over the last few weeks. Here’s hoping that this week will put me back in contention:

    @Tennessee vs Indianapolis (8.5) Sun 1:00
    New Orleans vs @St. Louis (13.5) Sun 1:00
    @New York (NYG) vs Miami (10.0) Sun 1:00
    @Carolina vs Minnesota (3.5) Sun 1:00
    @Baltimore vs Arizona (13.0) Sun 1:00
    @Houston vs Jacksonville (9.5) Sun 1:00
    @Buffalo vs Washington (6.0) Sun 4:05
    Detroit vs @Denver (3.0) Sun 4:05
    New England vs @Pittsburgh (3.0) Sun 4:15
    @San Francisco vs Cleveland (8.5) Sun 4:15
    Cincinnati vs @Seattle (3.0) Sun 4:15
    @Philadelphia vs Dallas (3.5) Sun 8:20
    San Diego vs @Kansas City (3.5) Mon 8:30

Last week 5-8 (5-8 against the spread)
Season to date 64-39

Rookie QB matchup

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:52

This is one of those games that could attract a lot more attention than the (respectively) 1-6 and 2-5 teams would normally be able to get. The biggest reason is the head-to-head matchup of two rookie quarterbacks, the Vikings’ Christian Ponder and the Panthers’ Cam Newton. Jim Souhan points out a few parallels between the two rookies:

When Cam Newton scores a touchdown, which is often, he rips open an imaginary shirt, imitating Superman.

When Christian Ponder threw his first NFL touchdown on Sunday, he ran down the field firing imaginary guns like the Shooter McGavin character from “Happy Gilmore.”

While one channels a hero and the other embraces a parody, Newton and Ponder, two rookie quarterbacks who will meet today in Charlotte, share an intriguing set of connections and similarities.

They worked out together this summer with St. Paul native and former Florida State star Chris Weinke. They were both selected in the first round of the 2011 draft. Their fathers tried out for the Dallas Cowboys in 1983. They might have the four best legs this side of Secretariat.

What might be most interesting about them is that they have the athletic ability to alter the way the quarterback position is played, yet seem determined to prove they can win games with their arms.

October 26, 2011

Mis-perception of relative risks

Filed under: Football, Health, Randomness — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 00:03

Gregg Easterbrook provides a good example of how difficult people often find to discern the relative weight of risks:

The first consideration is that both absolute numbers of football deaths and rates of death compared to participants are in long-term decline — mirroring the decline in many forms of risk in society. Age-adjusted rates of all deaths in the United States have declined for 10 consecutive years. Auto fatalities have been declining for more than a generation. Winning the War on War, an important new book by Joshua Goldstein [. . .] shows that despite the impression created by cable news, exposure to violence is in decline both in the United States and worldwide.

[. . .]

Data from the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research reflects a steady decline in deaths caused by football. Table 1 of the center’s most recent report shows that in the past decade, 34 high school, three pro and two college football players have died as the direct result of games or practices, with the primary cause of deaths being heat stroke. That is entirely awful — but much lower than the rate of a generation ago. In 1968 alone, 26 high school players died as a direct result of football; last year, the number was two. Table 3 of the report shows the direct fatality rate from high school football peaked at 2.6 deaths per 100,000 players in 1969 and declined steadily to 0.13 deaths per 100,000 in 2010. That means a 1968 high school football player was 20 times more likely to die than a 2010 player. (The main reason for declining deaths was that football helmets were improved to eliminate skull fractures.)

[. . .]

How to compare the slight risk of a terrible football outcome to other common risks experienced by the young? Consider the risk of being in a car. About 3,000 teens die each year in car crashes. There are about 21.3 million Americans between 15 and 19 years of age. Teens average about 146 miles driven per week, roughly 150 hours per year of driving. These figures yield a roughly one in 1 million chance that a teen will die in an hour of driving. The National Federation of State High School Associations reports that 1.1 million boys (and a few girls) played high school football last academic year. A typical high school football season would include, in games and practice, perhaps 75 hours of exposure to contact. That’s about 80 million total hours of exposure to contact on the part of high school football players. The National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research reports a recent average of three deaths per year directly caused by high school football. That’s a roughly one in 27 million chance of a high school player dying from an hour of football contact.

These are all rough estimates. Taking them together, a teenager has a one in 1 million chance of dying in an hour behind the wheel, compared to a one in 27 million chance of dying in an hour of football contact. Being in pads on a football field is less deadly than driving to high school for class. Many contemporary parents, especially moms, might say, “I don’t want you playing football because it’s so dangerous, but it’s fine for you to drive to the mall.” As regards mortality, this misperceives the risks.

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