… on Dec. 7, 1941, a U.S. Army Air Force lieutenant was spending his first-ever shift with a radar unit atop some Hawaiian high ground. Radar was brand new technology, and the U.S. was still figuring out how to best use it. The poor lieutenant watched on a scope as a big blob of something approached the naval base. He assumed it was a bunch of friendly planes coming in from the U.S. — what else would it be, right? Besides, even if he had been worried, there was no established protocol to sound an alarm. Forty-some-odd years before the release of Ghostbusters, the poor lieutenant was living the iconic tagline — when there’s a big mass of planes flying toward your base, who ya gonna call? And so the lieutenant and his men could only watch Japan’s massively successful attack on the U.S. fleet, an attack that caught the American defenders totally unprepared, with sailors asleep in their racks and senior officers golfing or breakfasting. There had been some intelligence warnings that Japan was up to something, but no one guessed that an attack on Hawaii was imminent. Not even the guys who quite literally saw it coming.
Let’s jump forward a few decades: in 1973, Israeli military intelligence was fully aware of a huge build-up of men and weapons on its borders with Syria and Egypt. The mobilizations were impossible to hide — tens of thousands of troops, tanks, artillery, the whole apparatus of modern warfare was lining up across Israel’s borders. But Israel’s top military intelligence officer concluded that the build-up was intended to apply political pressure ahead of negotiations, not actually to prepare for an assault. Israel was militarily superior, after all, and had handily defeated the combined Arab armies before, including just six years prior. The Arabs simply wouldn’t dare try again. Right?
Wrong. They dared, Israel was caught totally by surprise, and the Jewish state came shockingly close to defeat and likely destruction.
Ideally, these kinds of mistakes — mistakes of preparedness, mistakes of erroneous conclusion — are studied, learned from and then never repeated. In the real world, of course, we tend to make the same mistakes over and over.
Matt Gurney, “How the COVID crisis broke our leaders’ minds”, The Line, 2021-04-23.
