Quotulatiousness

October 27, 2009

Statistical measurements are important

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Health — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 07:52

So why, especially right now, have the US government’s key players in the public health arena stopped counting swine flu cases?

Part of the mystery comes from a federal government in such a tizzy to spread its vaccine and declare “national emergencies” that it doesn’t think it’s necessary to keep counting. Via CBS News:

In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there’s an epidemic?

Given that regular seasonal flu causes thousands of deaths annually, you’d think it would be good statistical discipline to count the cases of H1N1 separately, both the gauge the severity of the disease and to chart the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Lumping seasonal flu and “flu-like symptoms” together with H1N1 seems a big step backward from normal public health practice.

September 8, 2009

John Snow and the start of modern epidemiology

Filed under: Britain, Health — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:52

Another “on this date” entry for you: in 1854, John Snow persuaded the local authorities in a London borough to remove the handle from a water pump at the centre of a cholera outbreak. The move was successful, and the death rate dropped immediately. Randy Alfred has the story:

BroadSt_cholera_map

Physician John Snow convinces a London local council to remove the handle from a pump in Soho. A deadly cholera epidemic in the neighborhood comes to an end immediately, though perhaps serendipitously. Snow maps the outbreak to prove his point . . . and launches modern epidemiology.

The Soho neighborhood was not then filled with galleries, clubs, restaurants and other fine urban diversions. Some of it was an unsanitary slum where centuries-old cesspits sat chockablock with the wells that provided drinking water to a crowded populace.

Asiatic cholera had stricken Britain in successive waves since 1831. Snow, an obstetrician who pioneered the use of anesthesia in Britain, published On the Mode of Communication of Cholera in 1849. His hypothesis (and supporting data) held that the scourge was caused by sewage pollution in drinking water and “always commences with disturbances of the functions of the alimentary canal.”

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