Quotulatiousness

April 18, 2011

Happy thought of the day

Filed under: Law, Liberty, Media, Technology, USA — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 15:43

Darlene Storm offers this cheery little nugget of information (from a post back in December):

Dear Americans: If you are not “authorized” personnel, but you have read, written about, commented upon, tweeted, spread links by “liking” on Facebook, shared by email, or otherwise discussed “classified” information disclosed from WikiLeaks, you could be implicated for crimes under the U.S. Espionage Act — or so warns a legal expert who said the U.S. Espionage Act could make “felons of us all.”

As the U.S. Justice Department works on a legal case against WikiLeak’s Julian Assange for his role in helping publish 250,000 classified U.S. diplomatic cables, authorities are leaning toward charging Assange with spying under the Espionage Act of 1917. Legal experts warn that if there is an indictment under the Espionage Act, then any citizen who has discussed or accessed “classified” information can be arrested on “national security” grounds.

H/T to Bruce Schneier for the link.

Oh, stop worrying: everything is going according to the plan!

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Government, Liberty, USA — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 11:02

Julian Sanchez notes a fascinating parallel:

Batman’s archnemesis the Joker — played memorably by Heath Ledger in 2008′s blockbuster The Dark Knight — might seem like an improbable font of political wisdom, but it’s lately occurred to me that one of his more memorable lines from the film is surprisingly relevant to our national security policy:

You know what I’ve noticed? Nobody panics when things go “according to plan.” Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it’s all “part of the plan.”

There are, one hopes, limits. The latest in a string of videos from airport security to provoke online outrage shows a six-year-old girl being subjected to an invasive Transportation Security Administration patdown — including an agent feeling around in the waistband of the girl’s pants. I’m somewhat reassured that people don’t appear to be greatly mollified by TSA’s response:

A video taken of one of our officers patting down a six year-old has attracted quite a bit of attention. Some folks are asking if the proper procedures were followed. Yes. TSA has reviewed the incident and the security officer in the video followed the current standard operating procedures.

While I suppose it would be disturbing if individual agents were just improvising groping protocol on the fly (so to speak), the response suggests that TSA thinks our concerns should be assuaged once we’ve been reassured that everything is being done by the book — even if the book is horrifying. But in a sense, that’s the underlying idea behind all security theater: Show people that there’s a Plan, that procedures are in place, whether or not there’s any good evidence that the Plan actually makes us safer.

The real secret weapon of the “China economic miracle”

Filed under: China, Economics, Government — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 10:35

Chriss W. Street thinks the Chinese banks are about to suffer a crisis moment:

It is ironic that China is demanding greater control of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, just as the nation’s banking system is about to be devastated by the white hot flames of inflation.
From a distance, China’s economy seems to be the poster child of sustainable growth. Recent government reports show the economy expanding by 9.7%, retail sales up a blistering 17.4%, foreign reserves at $3 trillion, and inflation only 5.4%. But these statistics mask a dark side; Chinese communist authorities have been artificially holding down fierce inflationary pressures by subsidizing consumer prices.

[. . .]

The less known and far more important secret-weapon of the “China Economic Miracle” is the absolute control of the banking industry by China’s four largest state-owned banks (“SOB”); Industrial and Commercial Bank, Agricultural Bank, People’s Bank of China and Construction. Since the government does not provide adequate social welfare programs and restricts its citizen’s investment options to bank accounts, about 40% of Chinese household income is deposited in SOBs each month. The SOBs then leverage the deposits by ten times and loan 75% of this massive amount of cash at extremely low interest rates to state-owned-enterprises (“SOE”). The other 25% of lending is allocated to real estate development.

China is no stranger to bankers making risky loans to communist party officials and their crony real estate developers. During the Asian Financial Crisis of the mid-1990s, it is estimated that 40% of all SOB loans were non-performing and most were written off. The Chinese paid for the SOB losses with a 76% devaluation of their currency that crushed the people’s buying-power by 76%. From 1997 to 2004 Chinese frivolous lending was somewhat restrained, but since 2003 the bureaucrats have mandated a massive expansion of lending. In comparison to the U.S. and Europe where bank lending is flat, SOBs have been expanding loans by 25% annually.

H/T to Jon for the link.

Toronto area gas station boycott

Filed under: Cancon, Economics — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:01

Chris Greaves (who doesn’t even own a car) looks at the possibility of using weekly boycott targets in an attempt to force oil companies to lower the retail price of gasoline in Toronto:

Consider therefore a web site for the GTA which announced as the next boycott period approached that the new target was “Shell”.

Those drivers who subscribe to the mass-boycott idea would avoid buying gas at Shell and, being evangelical, would tell their friends and colleagues that “Shell” was the target this period.

The question is “Who picks the target?” and the answer is simple: torontogasprices already announces the highest and lowest price for gas in the GTA. Score +1 against that company with the highest gas price at a random time each day. Then pick the company with the highest score. Over a short period, the company with the highest prices would float to the top of the list and be ready for a boycott.

In order to avoid any hint of collusion and legal attack, the web site would be hosted as a private web site, a blog perhaps, with the views expressed being solely those of the individual. There can be no legal complaint against an individual blogging and/or tweeting a disarmingly simple statement “This week I am boycotting Shell”.

Malinvestment the next big problem for China?

Filed under: China, Economics, Government — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 09:54

Nouriel Roubini thinks that the Chinese central planners are missing the clues about overinvestment in their infrastructure binge:

China’s economy is overheating now, but, over time, its current overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally. Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible — most likely after 2013 — China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Instead of focusing on securing a soft landing today, Chinese policymakers should be worrying about the brick wall that economic growth may hit in the second half of the quinquennium.

Despite the rhetoric of the new Five-Year Plan — which, like the previous one, aims to increase the share of consumption in GDP — the path of least resistance is the status quo. The new plan’s details reveal continued reliance on investment, including public housing, to support growth, rather than faster currency appreciation, substantial fiscal transfers to households, taxation and/or privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), liberalization of the household registration (hukou) system, or an easing of financial repression.

China has grown for the last few decades on the back of export-led industrialization and a weak currency, which have resulted in high corporate and household savings rates and reliance on net exports and fixed investment (infrastructure, real estate, and industrial capacity for import-competing and export sectors). When net exports collapsed in 2008-09 from 11 percent of GDP to 5 percent, China’s leader reacted by further increasing the fixed-investment share of GDP from 42 percent to 47 percent.

Thus, China did not suffer a severe recession — as occurred in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere in emerging Asia in 2009 — only because fixed investment exploded. And the fixed-investment share of GDP has increased further in 2010-2011, to almost 50 percent.

The problem, of course, is that no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50 percent of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity and a staggering nonperforming loan problem. China is rife with overinvestment in physical capital, infrastructure, and property. To a visitor, this is evident in sleek but empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, thousands of colossal new central and provincial government buildings, ghost towns, and brand-new aluminum smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.

H/T to Publius for the link.

The Magic Washing Machine, by Hans Rosling

Filed under: Economics, Environment, Health, Technology — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:49

H/T to Jon for the link.

April 17, 2011

Ilkka lets his anti-pedestrian flag fly

Filed under: Cancon, Humour, Randomness — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:33

Ilkka is usually a pedestrian/public transit rider, so it’s quite a surprise when he looks at the world from the driver’s perspective:

It’s always good to see things from the other guy’s perspective, and today we went on errand to the city on a car, very different from my usual public transit and pedestrian viewpoint. I understand not just the complaints of drivers much better now, but also the notion of “high cost of free parking”. I thought it was absurd how the city of Toronto, by allowing curbside parking, effectively turns its perfectly good four-lane streets into narrow two-lane bottlenecks that massively throttle the traffic. And then all those freaking pedestrians crossing the streets wherever they feel like, something I basically never do. It actually wouldn’t be a bad idea to impose a law that not only is it never a crime to hit a pedestrian who is on the street anywhere else than the sidewalk or a crosswalk, but the city would actually pay a small reward for this service to society, bit like the “kill money” bounty that hunters traditionally get for putting down pests. The problem of pedestrians running around in the traffic would vanish within a week.

I think he’s kidding . . .

Academic short cuts: group projects

Filed under: Education, Randomness — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:27

I always hated group project when I was in school, especially the couple of times where I had to depend on the expertise of other students to help me get through. Professors, however, still seem very fond of assigning group work in certain academic areas:

Group work is largely an academic joke, a process where the weaker members of the group rely almost exclusively on the stronger, more conscientious students to carry them all to the grade they want. (Of course, the same “weak rely on the strong” dynamic prevails in real-world group work as well.) Group work serves lazy students and professors quite well — the low-performing students can relax while their peers complete the task, and the professors have fewer papers or projects to grade.

While easy classes and group assignments may do little to further the students’ actual education, that’s not the point, is it? After all, the real purpose of many second-tier (and even some first-tier) public- and private-university business degrees is to provide the mandatory credential required by employers, who then do the actual, on-the-job training the position requires. Recent marketing, accounting, or management grads enter the workplace (with rare exceptions) as essentially glorified interns, and they’ll sink or swim based on their performance in a job they learn as they go. While’s there nothing inherently wrong with starting low and working your way up through determination, creativity, and discipline, why must these new employees spend four years and tens of thousands of dollars before they can start their real training?

Steve Paikin on moderating the leaders’ debate

Filed under: Cancon, Media, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 09:55

Everyone is watching the debate to hear what the leaders say. Nobody tunes in to watch the moderator, so the best moderator is the one who manages to keep the debate moving smoothly but remains mostly invisible to the viewers. Steve Paikin was the moderator for the leaders’ English language debate this time around. He has a post on his experiences:

I’ve had the honour of moderating two previous federal leaders’ debates, and both times, the four minutes of waiting for the top of the clock can be agonizing. It’s not an exaggeration to say that in 2006 — the first time I ever participated in a leaders’ debate at any level — I felt like vomiting during those four minutes. Yes, I was that petrified.

So I cracked a joke.

“I don’t know what you guys are so nervous about,” I said to them. “You’ve all done this before. I never have.”

For all the criticism that he’s wooden and humourless, it was actually then opposition leader Stephen Harper who had a funny comeback.

“Yeah,” he said, “but you’ve got someone talking in your ear to help you. We’ve got nothing.”

So how about that whole “being invisible” part of the moderator’s role?

For some reason, I always seem to mess something up. The first time in 2006, I had forgotten to turn off my BlackBerry. As I was reading the introduction, I felt it buzz. How embarrassing was it going to be to have my phone ring as I was 30 seconds into my script. Somehow, I reached down and silenced it as I was reading the intro. Then the TelePrompter broke, so I quickly had to find my place in the script and keep reading, trying to make it all look seamless. Was someone trying to give me a heart attack?

This year, I somehow managed to kick the wiring out of the monitor on my desk, again, while reading the intro, meaning I spent the entire two hours flying blind. I couldn’t see the videos of the questions and couldn’t see what shots were being used during the broadcast. I spent the first five minutes of the debate playing with the wires, trying to reattach them, hoping the camera wasn’t catching me trying to play technician. Ultimately, I gave up.

Was the debate a good television experience? I don’t know. I never saw it.

Latest polling data

Filed under: Cancon, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 09:38

China’s real estate bubble

Filed under: China, Economics, Government — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:24

This is why the Finnish election matters to Portugal

Filed under: Economics, Europe, Politics — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:00

Unlike most other EU states, Finland has an option of putting the bailout to a vote:

Opinion polls suggest the True Finns have nearly quadrupled in popularity since the last election though they are unlikely to enter government.

Analysts see mainstream parties taking a harder line on the EU as a result.

Unlike other eurozone states, Finland can put requests for bail-out funds to a majority vote in parliament.

Since any bail-out must be approved unanimously by all 17 eurozone members, a hostile Finnish government could theoretically veto it.

The outcome of Sunday’s election may affect EU plans to shore up Portugal as well as impacting on stability in debt markets.

Atlas Shrugged has good opening day in the theatres

Filed under: Liberty, Media — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 08:31

No, I haven’t seen the movie. But that’s more because I’m not much of a moviegoer. Others have seen it:

Let’s look at the numbers first. According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, Atlas Shrugged: Part 1, which was filmed with a meager $5 million budget, brought in $683,000 on Friday, the film’s opening night. It placed 13th overall in total box office receipts for the day. Not too shabby.

There is another interesting metric that BoxOfficeMojo.com provides. It breaks down a film’s estimated gross on a per theater basis. This is a fair thing to do considering Atlas Shrugged was only shown in 300 theaters and, say, Rio, the number one grossing film for the day, was shown in 3,826.

Atlas Shrugged’s per theater gross was $2,277, ranking third for the day. Rio’s per theater gross, on the other hand, was $2,666. One has to wonder, then, if Atlas Shrugged’s opening day would have grossed more if it would have received a wider release. After all, it’s per theater take was very near the number one grossing film for the day.

The critics have generally panned the movie, but the RottenTomatoes.com users have given it a 3.8 out of 5, which is quite positive.

April 16, 2011

Sorry for the lack of blogging

Filed under: Administrivia — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 22:32

Sorry for the lack of blogging today: just after I posted the Guild Wars 2 round-up, we had a power outage that lasted a few hours. By the time the power came back on, I didn’t get any opportunity to get back to the blog. Normal blogging will resume on Sunday (I hope).

This week in Guild Wars 2 news

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 11:26

I’ve been accumulating news snippets about the as-yet-to-be-formally-scheduled release of Guild Wars 2 for an email newsletter I send out to my friends and acquaintances in the Guild Wars community.

Another slow week, although we’ve been promised some big news starting on Monday, during Charr Week.

Part 1: Discussion of previous news

  • The Guild Wars community, by Rubi Bayer. “I hope ArenaNet appreciates what a fantastic community it has. I don’t mean to suggest that the developers and community team are not appreciative, but this time of year it always strikes me anew what an incredibly dedicated fanbase this company enjoys. The community talks freely with (and often at) the Guild Wars development and community teams, usually in a very casual and comfortable fashion — inside jokes and off-topic chats are as common as serious game discussion and feedback. I’m sure it can get overwhelming for the ANet team sometimes, but it speaks volumes about the community that it’s so entrenched, consistent, and knowledgeable about ArenaNet and the people behind it.”
  • NCsoft posted a retrospective video and photo gallery from this year’s PAX East show.

Part 2: Guild Wars news

  • No new Guild Wars information this week (not even a game update worth mentioning). If you’d like to keep track of the upcoming “Winds of Change” and other Guild Wars Beyond material, keep this page bookmarked.

Part 3: Guild Wars 2 news

  • “One of the major concerns of Guild Wars 2 fans is, for lack of a better word, depth. As I was listening to GuildCast the other day, one of their guests went into a long rant about how he thinks Guild Wars 2 doesn’t present any depth.”
  • More on the nomination of Ghosts of Ascalon for a Scribe award. “The IAMTW is an organization of writers who create works of fiction where the intellectual property rights are held by others — stuff like movie and game tie-ins, novelizations, and other shared world projects. This year Ghosts of Ascalon — a gripping tale that sets the stage for Guild Wars 2 — was nominated in the Speculative Original category.”
  • How to make MMOs better. “From both a business and a development standpoint, making and launching a new MMO is the most intimidating task in video games. Where does ArenaNet find such confidence and daring? What makes this unassuming studio, founded by a trio of ex-Blizzard staff in 2000 and with one game to its name, think it can take on the might of their former employer?”
  • Ten Ton Hammer: Why care? “If you haven’t been watching Guild Wars 2, then you’re missing history in the making. Let me tell you why!”
  • You might want to bookmark NowGamer’s website for next week (aka “Charr Week”):
    “Monday — From 10am we have the first part of our exclusive interview with ArenaNet’s Jeff Grubb, Continuity and Lore Designer and John Peters, Game Designer. They talk about the story of Guild Wars 2, quests, skills and more — as well as an exclusive reveal.
    Tuesday — Day two features the broader half of our Guild Wars 2 interview, which takes in the plot, how the world has changed, the new microtransaction model, hints at where expansions could go and the future of Free2Play.
    Wednesday — Look out for exclusive images related to the Monday reveal.
    Thursday — Hit NowGamer at 5pm GMT for the world premiere of the official Guild Wars 2 reveal trailer.”
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