Quotulatiousness

April 24, 2011

No 21-gun salute for royal wedding due to “health and safety” concerns

Filed under: Britain, Bureaucracy, Health — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 13:41

Ah, those “elf’n’safety” goons strike again:

When Prince William and Kate Middleton leave Westminster Abbey on Friday, there will be no 21-gun salute to mark their union. Mandrake can disclose that plans for such an honour in Hyde Park were abandoned because of fears over “health and safety” and “noise pollution”.

One of the Prince’s pals tells me: “We thought it would be a fitting tribute for the wedding, but we were told that, because of health and safety, and noise pollution concerns, it would involve too much red tape to get a new salute authorised.”

Twenty-one gun salutes in Hyde Park and Green Park are a traditional military honour, carried out by the King’s Troop, Royal Horse Artillery, to mark important royal occasions including Coronation Day and the official birthdays of the Queen, the Duke of Edinburgh and the Prince of Wales. Queen Victoria and Prince Albert’s wedding in 1840 began with such a tribute.

Duceppe throws down the gauntlet: “This election is a battle between… Canada and Quebec”

Filed under: Cancon, Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — Nicholas @ 13:20

The rise of the NDP in Quebec is forcing Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe to take a much stronger line against Jack Layton:

The NDP’s newfound status proved jarring enough for Duceppe to make a strident, emotional appeal to his base Saturday:

“This election is a battle between… Canada and Quebec,” said a message Saturday from the Bloc leader’s Twitter account.

He later erased that note and replaced it with a toned-down appeal for all sovereigntists to back his party. The message is a clear departure from previous campaigns that saw Duceppe work to broaden his appeal beyond sovereigntist voters.

“This election is not a left-right battle, but a battle between federalists and sovereigntists,” said the later message from Duceppe’s account. “Between the parties of the Canadian majority and Quebec.”

There are even anti-NDP attack ads, including a new one from the Liberals featuring a yellow traffic light and the message, “Not so fast, Jack.”

The Liberals have been forced to pay more attention to the NDP than they had planned, especially with the parties in a statistical tie in the latest polls. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was even booed loudly at at hockey game last night, which has only been lightly mentioned in the media. His low personal popularity is starting to be seen as a big reason for the Liberals’ plight in the polls — although it can’t be the only reason.

The NDP’s financial promises are one area the Liberals can safely attack:

The Liberals are pointing out a series of alleged exaggerations in the NDP platform, saying the promises are based on invented revenues like a supposed $3.6 billion that would come in the first year of a climate cap-and-trade system. The Liberals call it, “fantasy money.”

The Liberals also heaped ridicule on the NDP promise to hire 1,200 new doctors and 6,000 nurses for the bargain-basement rate of $25 million.

They said the NDP promise to save $2 billion by slashing subsidies to the oil sands overstates the possible savings by four times, and that the math is similarly wonky on the NDP’s pledge to crack down on foreign tax havens.

“It’s time to take a close look at what Jack Layton’s saying to the Canadian people. The numbers add up and up and up,” Ignatieff said.

“Mr. Layton has got a platform that when you look at it closely has . . . $30 billion of spending, which we think is not going to be good for the economy and he derives it from sources we just don’t think are credible.

“He’s got a cap-and-trade system that’s going to deliver $3.5 billion in the first year. We don’t even have a cap and trade system. It’s science fiction.”

Latest poll shows Liberals in statistical tie with NDP

Filed under: Cancon, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:41

If you wanted an interesting election, this one is certainly shaping up as the most interesting in the last ten years:


Unhappy tax day for online poker players

Filed under: Gaming, Law, USA — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:07

Well, tax day generally isn’t a happy day, but online poker players were especially unhappy:

Last week, while many people reported their income to the Internal Revenue Service, others suddenly found their source of income shut off. On a day now known among online poker players as “Black Friday,” the Department of Justice did us Americans the favor of saving us from ourselves by shutting down the three most popular and trusted online poker platforms.

Not only did the department seize the three domain names, it also froze 77 accounts around the world and charged the founders of PokerStars, Full Tilt Poker and Absolute Poker, among others. What’s there crime? While the charges very carefully center on bank fraud, the heart of the department’s clampdown on Internet gambling stems from the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). Passed during a midnight vote in 2006, the UIGEA doesn’t actually prohibit online gambling but rather bans credit-processing companies from processing payments from “unlawful” online gambling activities. However, the bill never clarifies what it means by “unlawful” activities.

After the law’s passage, several online poker companies continued to operate in the United States, and Justice has turned the prosecution of those entities into a very lucrative endeavor. United Kingdom-based SportingBet, an online betting platform, signed a non-prosecution agreement with the U.S. government last year in return for a payment of $33 million, and in 2008, the co-founder of PartyGaming.com paid authorities $300 million in a settlement. In last week’s indictment, Justice announced that it was seeking a total of $3 billion from the poker companies. Compare this with the $105 million fine that Wachovia, which was found to be laundering billions of dollars in drug money, paid to the U.S. government, and one must wonder what kind of metric Justice uses when deciding which injustices to pursue.

April 23, 2011

A neat way to address software piracy

Filed under: Gaming, Humour, Technology — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 12:52

I still find it hard to believe that Cracked, of all the media entities from the pre-internet era, is worth visiting (and linking to). However, this is good stuff:

The [Arkham Asylum] developers included a little bit of extra code to detect when the game has been pirated, a common tactic used to track a company’s losses or simply mess with cheap people. The game is mostly unchanged when hacked, with one seemingly minor exception: Batman’s glider cape is hilariously unusable and has the aerodynamics of a piece of cardboard riddled with bullet holes.

It’s not that the cape is faulty, apparently; it’s simply that your version of Batman doesn’t know how to use it. Instead of gliding from one surface to another, Batman simply opens his wings over and over like a total ass-clown, causing him to lose altitude and fall down. It’s like you’re being forced to play with the pudgy Batman copycat from the beginning of The Dark Knight.

All the other gadgets still work, so you can always fight your way across the level on foot, right? Well, yeah, except that without the glider cape you’ll be completely stranded in a certain room — you know, the one filled with poisonous gas. That’s right, in the pirated version of Arkham Asylum, the always-prepared Dark Knight is such an useless idiot that he gets himself killed due to his shitty cape.

This trick gets misconstrued a lot as a simple game glitch, so you have people like this guy asking what’s wrong with his game at the official Eidos message board … only for the forum administrator to explain the situation and tell him: “It’s not a bug in the game’s code, it’s a bug in your moral code [punk].“

Is this where the “ponygirl” fetish got started?

Filed under: History, Humour, Randomness — Tags: — Nicholas @ 12:32

One of a series of “WTF?” postings at How to be a Retronaut may show the origin of the “ponygirl” fetish. (I would advise you not to Google Image Search for that . . . unless that’s what you are interested in):

QotD: The debunking problem in media

Filed under: Media, Quotations, Science — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:23

[. . .] the second issue is how people find out about stuff. We exist in a blizzard of information, and stuff goes missing: as we saw recently, research shows that people don’t even hear about retractions of outright fraudulent work. Publishing a follow-up in the same venue that made an initial claim is one way of addressing this problem (and when the journal Science rejected the replication paper, even they said “your results would be better received and appreciated by the audience of the journal where the Daryl Bem research was published”).

The same can be said for the New York Times, who ran a nice long piece on the original precognition finding, New Scientist who covered it twice, the Guardian who joined in online, the Telegraph who wrote about it three times over, New York Magazine, and so on.

It’s hard to picture many of these outlets giving equal prominence to the new negative findings that are now emerging, in the same way that newspapers so often fail to return to a debunked scare, or a not-guilty verdict after reporting the juicy witness statements.

All the most interesting problems around information today are about structure: how to cope with the overload, and find sense in the data. For some eyecatching precognition research, this stuff probably doesn’t matter. What’s interesting is that the information architectures of medicine, academia and popular culture are all broken in the exact same way.

Ben Goldacre, “I foresee that nobody will do anything about this problem”, Bad Science, 2011-04-23

Another fake war hero emerges

Filed under: Military, USA — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 11:28

This time, it’s a 20-year-old woman in Minnesota:

The town of Cass Lake embraced Elizabeth McKenzie last month when she arrived at the high school in her Army uniform for a welcome home ceremony.

Though she isn’t a tribal member, the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe Honor Guard gave her a blanket and an eagle feather to honor her as a woman warrior for her service in Afghanistan. There was a tribal drum ceremony and a reception line. Accepting the town’s gratitude, McKenzie talked about the close calls she’d had and a war injury that brought her home. She led the march in the high school gym, carrying the American flag, and the local newspaper documented the hero’s return.

But none of it was true. The 20-year-old McKenzie was never injured in combat, had never been to Afghanistan, never been deployed anywhere. In fact, she’s never been in the military.

Now the 2009 grad of Cass Lake High School has been cited for impersonating an officer, which in Minnesota includes the military. And the people of Cass Lake are trying to recover from feeling duped by their own good intentions.

Google Easter egg hunt

Filed under: Randomness — Tags: — Nicholas @ 11:18

A bit of light fluff for the Easter weekend: Another Dozen Google Easter Eggs.

QR on Demand With Goo.gl
Most Google easter eggs are played strictly for laughs, but this one’s actually useful: When you’re working with Google’s URL shortener, goo.gl, simply add “.qr” to any shortened URL to generate a scannable QR code for the Website in question

April 22, 2011

Houston loses space shuttle sweepstakes

Filed under: History, Space, USA — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 16:26

Houston has a problem with the allocation of the soon-to-be retired space shuttles:

Which city, in the whole of the United States, would the average person associate most clearly with America’s towering achievements, and no few sorrows, over the past half century of sending men and women into space? Why, Houston, of course — home of the Johnson Space Centre, where NASA’s mission control is located. We know this from all that has been said and done in the past. The first words Neil Armstrong uttered as Apollo 11 touched down on the Moon in 1969 were: “Houston, Tranquility base here — the Eagle has landed.”

The name of Houston will forever be associated with the manned exploration of space. No astronaut ever radioed laconically back from a crippled spaceship, “Manhattan, we have a problem”. Yet, in NASA’s recent selection of the final destinations for its four extant space shuttles, now that the last operational ones are about to be pensioned off, New York City will get Enterprise, the first of the shuttles that was rolled out in 1976, while Houston gets snubbed.

A score or more of museums and other institutions around the country competed for the honour of having a shuttle in their permanent collection. Apart from offering an appealing display, each had to be ready to stump up $28.8m to cover the cost of preparing and transporting the winged spacecraft to its new location. Of the three other remaining shuttles, Discovery is destined for the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum annexe outside Washington, DC. After the launch in late June of the 135th (and last) mission in the shuttle programme, Atlantis will remain in Florida to be exhibited at the Kennedy Space Centre’s visitor centre.

Meanwhile, after its own final mission later this month, Endeavour, the youngest of the shuttles, will be ferried to Los Angeles to end its days in the California Science Centre, alongside existing exhibits of the Mercury, Gemini and Apollo spacecraft, and close to the old Rockwell plant in Palmdale where the shuttle was developed. Meanwhile, just up the road, at Edwards Air Force Base, is the runway where nearly half of all shuttle flights touched down.

DC business owner successfully fights photo tickets

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Law, Technology — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 16:17

Jon sent me this link, which shows that you sometimes can fight speed camera tickets:

Five times and counting before three different judges, the Prince George’s County business owner has used a computer and a calculation to cast reasonable doubt on the reliability of the soulless traffic enforcers.

After a judge threw out two of his tickets Wednesday, Mr. Foreman said he is confident he has exposed systemic inaccuracies in the systems that generate millions of dollars a year for town, city and county governments.

He wasn’t the only one to employ the defense Wednesday. Two other men were found not guilty of speeding offenses before a Hyattsville District judge during the same court session using the same technique.

“You’ve produced an elegant defense and I’m sufficiently doubtful,” Judge Mark T. O’Brien said to William Adams, after hearing evidence that his Subaru was traveling below the 35-mph limit – and not 50 mph as the ticket indicated.

This week in Guild Wars 2 news

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 15:58

I’ve been accumulating news snippets about the as-yet-to-be-formally-scheduled release of Guild Wars 2 for an email newsletter I send out to my friends and acquaintances in the Guild Wars community.

A day early this time due to the Easter weekend: I doubt that Arenanet will be publishing any new material from Friday to Sunday.

Part 1: Discussion of previous news

  • Nothing in this category this week, it’s all Charr, all the time.

Part 2: Guild Wars news

  • Reminder: If you’d like to keep track of the upcoming “Winds of Change” and other “Guild Wars Beyond” material, keep this page bookmarked.
  • Rubi Bayer: Walk on the wild side. “I have a confession to make: I’m
    burned out on Guild Wars. That’s not the fault of Guild Wars at all — I’m finding a general feeling of burnout with all themepark MMOs in general. I discussed it at length with Shawn and Beau on last week’s Massively Speaking [podcast], but the short version is that I find myself logging into my core MMOs (Guild Wars, Dungeons and Dragons Online, and RIFT), saying some version of “Meh,” and logging out again. After a couple weeks of this, it finally occurred to me to take my own darn advice: Try something new and different. With my typical all-or-nothing approach, I’m jumping in with both feet. So what is my new venture? Most of you can probably guess, but follow along after the jump for the skinny on my latest project.”

Part 3: Guild Wars 2 news

  • Kill Ten Rats: Shades of Zoo. “This doesn’t necessarily make one dynamic event system better than the other. Just like some people prefer the focused experience of Disney’s Animal Kingdom to the San Diego Zoo, so to will some people prefer Rift’s guided approach to Guild Wars 2′s events-are-everywhere approach. We are seeing different sides to Rift only because it is live and being experienced by so many. Obviously Trion Worlds hit their first stumble when trying to provide a singular whammy of an event last Saturday. It will be interesting to see what we and ArenaNet learns when the masses hit their servers. Trion Worlds is already learning from theirs.”
  • Prepare yourself for Charr Week! “The charr first appeared in the original Guild Wars as the implacable foes of humanity, but a lot has happened in the 250 years between the first game and the time period of Guild Wars 2. The charr have rejected their false gods and embraced industry and technology with gusto, crafting devastating weaponry and incredible machinery. But empire and expansion comes with a heavy price, and the charr of Guild Wars 2 are beset by formidable enemies on all sides.”
  • Introducing the Charr as a playable race. “There are eight professions we’ve announced, and Charr will be able to play all eight,” confirmed ArenaNet’s Jon Peters. “Race choices are a story and role-playing decision for us, but that being said, we do like to add some flavour to the races by giving them specific skills. So the Charr are technologically advanced compared to the other races, so some of their profession skills do things like a hidden pistol, shrapnel mines, and an elite skill where they can call in an artillery barrage,” added the developer.”
  • Charr Week interview with Jeff Grubb and John Peters. “In the
    original Guild Wars we had one playable race, which was human, but now we’ve got the humans, the Charr, Asura, Sylvari and the Norn. This week we’re officially revealing the Charr, who were the bad guys in the original prophecies. They were the race that broke through the great wall, attacked Ascalon, and now, they are a playable race. We go a lot more into their culture, their world, their rationale, as well as why they’re here and what their goals are. The Charr themselves are these huge, feline, horned warriors. You know, they have come from a military culture, and in Guild Wars 2 they have conquered Ascalon. Although they would say they ‘re-conquered’ it, because that land was originally theirs before the humans arrived and drew them out.”
  • Part 2 of the interview with Jeff Grubb and John Peters. “Looking at the MMO space specifically, it’s important to be very social. In most MMOs, you have all of these players playing together, but they’re not very social, and like, we took every aspect of it and said, ‘what can we do to make Guild Wars 2 more social?’ That’s why the combat is more about working together, and why the story in the persistent world is all about events, which is content that players do together. “
  • Interview with Jeff Grubb. “The humans and charr have a truce, and part of that truce is that both species are welcome in each other’s cities. In practice, only adventurous souls would walk into the other race’s city. The charr don’t eat other sentient races, though they will gladly let you believe that if it makes it easier to deal with you.”
  • Creating the Charr starting area. “Every map is important, but the importance of the starter maps is magnified because they are the first maps you see when you create a new character and set the tone for each race. I wanted to talk a bit about the first area of the map, the Village of Smokestead, and what the process was to get it to its final state. Along the way, I’ll discuss the iterative process that we employ at ArenaNet and just how important it is to us that we get things done right, even if it takes extra time to get there.”
  • Arenanet hints at Guild Wars 2 expansions. “Dragons are ‘all over the place’ in the Guild Wars universe, according to Grubb, but as for appearing in future expansions the developer remained coy: ‘Going beyond Guild Wars 2 — yes, the other dragons are there, and they have potential — but what we’re doing with them? Well, we’re worrying about dealing with Zhaitan first,’ he added.”
  • Scott McGough on Writing the Charr. “Our world designers and writers approach the charr with a certain amount of gusto. After all, it’s just plain fun to write for the bad guys, especially when you get to explore their point of view, in which they’re the good guys. We know some people will feel a lingering resentment of the charr — probably because of that whole Searing thing — in addition to the gleeful anticipation of getting inside their fur, so our guiding principle for writing them has been to delve into some of the unexplored charr virtues (industry, discipline, fearlessness) along with their well known vices (aggression, bloodthirst, and ruthlessness). Balancing the admirable traits with the fearsome ones allows us to present a more complete picture of charr society without negating or retconning their violent history.”
  • It’s just plain fun to write for the bad guys. “This is an especially interesting read for longtime fans of Guild Wars because we’ve watched the Charr evolve over the years and learned more about their hierarchy, their values, their strengths, and their failings. The Charr began (in the eyes of the humans) as a formidable but lesser group of creatures to be removed from the human lands of Old Ascalon. Over time, we’ve learned much more about this fierce, intelligent, and strictly organized race — even becoming allies with some of its members.”
  • Charr Fanfic, for those inclined (I haven’t read it).
  • The artistic origin of the Charr. “In our world, if you are a human, large cats are terrifying. They’ve been eating people for thousands of years, and they come for us out of the trees and the brush and the darkness. So we took a risk and tried concepting cat people. However, the original concepts weren’t impressive, and even came troublingly close to being cute. We began incorporating fire and horns into their designs to push towards a more threatening, demonic feel. We ended up with a fire worshipping race of hell cats. As we fleshed out more of their story we followed through on less of the varied forms than we originally planned, but you can still see remnants of the original design in the stances of the magic-using and weapon-wielding charr in Guild Wars.”
  • A fire-worshipping race of hell cats. “Oh, they were always around, of course. The introduction of female Charr in Guild Wars 2 caused a huge buzz among fans, though, because the females were never seen in Guild Wars 1. Artist Kristen Perry was responsible for translating the monstrous Charr into a feminine form — and proving that “fantasy genre” doesn’t have to equal “buxom, wasp-waisted catgirl.” As with the original Charr design, there was quite a bit of discussion and some uncertainty along the way.”
  • Warfronts and technological advances. “Charr are a race to be reckoned with. We already knew that after the searing, but now that they’ve gone through a mechanical revolution, they’re even more powerful. Today we’re getting spoiled with yet another update on the charr, this time we’re getting the full back story to get up to speed to Tyria, 250 years forward.”
  • Updated Charr page at the official site (including new video). “The feline charr of Tyria are a victorious race challenged by their own success. They have survived defeat, oppression, and civil war. They have returned, reconquered, and rebuilt their original homes. Their mighty fortress, the Black Citadel, dominates the surrounding ruins of the human city of Rin, and their non-magical technology is the mightiest in the land. Yet despite their success, they are challenged by divisions among their people, the power of the Elder Dragons, and the ghosts of their own victories. This, then, is their story.”
  • Massively analyzes the new Charr video. “Sharp-eyed Guild Wars fans will catch more than one startling contrast in the first seconds of the video. There’s the obvious: the pastoral landscape combined with the aggressive, drum-heavy, militaristic score. But look a little closer. Things are green and growing, the river isn’t tar. It looks like Pre-Searing, or maybe the Charr homelands in the north. But a glance at the background landscape gives the location away — this is Ascalon, and those structures are the broken ruins of the human city.”

Update, 23 April: I was wrong . . . Arenanet did post a bit more Charr information on Friday:

The Legions of the Charr. “In the year 1090 of the Mouvelian calendar, King Adelbern, last human ruler of Ascalon, released the Foefire. The human residents of that land succumbed to the terrible magic, only to rise again as ghosts. By 1112, the High Legions of the charr reclaimed the entirety of Ascalon. Only four years later, Kalla Scorchrazor of the Blood Legion came before Forge Ironstrike, the imperator of the Iron Legion, and challenged him to help her free their people from the shamans’ control. Together, Kalla and Forge led a rebellion against the Flame Legion, overthrowing their tyrannical rule. The three legions, Blood, Ash, and Iron, then reassembled a nation from the ruins of the past.”

April 21, 2011

Elon’s Dragon may “land on Mars”

Filed under: Space, Technology — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:35

While you’re talking up your own private space venture, you can probably be excused for a bit of boasting:

Famous upstart startup rocket company SpaceX, bankrolled and helmed by renowned internet nerdwealth hecamillionaire Elon Musk, has once again sent its goalposts racing ahead of its rapidly-advancing corporate reality.

The plucky challenger has stated that its “Dragon” capsule is not merely capable of delivering supplies to the International Space Station: it is — potentially — also capable of carrying astronauts to the space station and back down to Earth again.

In a statement released yesterday, Musk and SpaceX also make the bold claim that the Dragon, once fitted with modifications that the company is now developing under NASA contract, would also be able to land “almost anywhere on Earth or another planet with pinpoint accuracy, overcoming the limitation of a winged architecture that works only in Earth’s atmosphere” (our emphasis).

News topic for today: the rise in NDP support in Quebec

Filed under: Cancon, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:04

It may be just another blip in the polling, or it could really be the NDP benefitting from weaker BQ numbers. Lots of trees will be consumed in this debate, and many electrons will be inconvenienced. The national numbers don’t show the pattern all that well, but the NDP may finally be close to that popularity breakthrough they’ve been hoping for since the brief taste of power they got in the Trudeau years. Instead of asking the Liberal leader how many NDP cabinet seats he’d need to give to Jack Layton, we might be asking Jack how many Liberal cabinet ministers he’d have in his coalition.

Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Quebecois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to an Ekos public opinion poll released exclusively to iPolitics.

The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1% while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7%.

The Liberals are steady at 20.6% while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9%.

While the margin of error is higher at the city level, in Montreal the NDP is at 32.9% while the Bloc is at 29.7%.

Nationally, the NDP is now in a statistical tie with the Liberals at 24.9% to 25.8%. Both lag well behind the Conservatives who were preferred by 34.5% of respondents.

Update: Jane Taber has more on the regional breakdown:

Atlantic Canada now is shaping up to be a three-way race, with the NDP gaining every day for the past seven days. The Tories are at 36.3 per cent followed by the Liberals with 33.1 per cent and the NDP at 28.3 per cent. (There is a margin of error of plus or minus 9.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 in the regional sample.)

In British Columbia, the Liberals have dropped significantly — Mr. Ignatieff has seen his support decrease from 33.5 per cent Monday to 22.7 per cent Wednesday night. The Conservatives have 43.5 per cent support and the NDP are at 29.6 per cent, up from 24.7 per cent the night before. (The margin of error in that province is plus or minus 7.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

In Quebec, Mr. Layton remains strong although the Bloc is still in first place with 32 per cent support compared to 23.4 per cent for the NDP, 20.8 per cent for the Liberals and 17.5 per cent for the Conservatives. “At 32 per cent it would be the worst ever showing for the BQ in a federal election,” Mr. Nanos said, noting that their previous worst showing was in 1997 where they won 37.9 per cent of the vote.‬

If all of this isn’t just a blip, it’s terrible news for Michael Ignatieff. That grinding noise you hear is the knife-sharpening back at Liberal HQ.

Update, the second: If the initial news was promising for Jack Layton, the poll done for La Presse must have been like a big shot of adrenalin:

A new poll by CROP for La Presse suggests that the enthusiasm for Mr. Layton is such that the NDP has now overtaken the Bloc Québécois in voting intentions for the first time in Canadian history. The online poll suggested that the NDP is now first choice for 36% of Quebecers, compared to 31% for the Bloc, 17% for the Conservatives and a mere 13% for the once mighty Liberal Party.

Having heard the NDP boast about “historic breakthroughs” over the years, I’m loath to get too carried away until these numbers are confimed by other pollsters. In 2008, Mr. Layton was in a statistical tie with Stéphane Dion two weeks before election day but ended up trailing by eight points and 40 MPs.

Yet there are signs this time might be different. In Quebec in particular, the Liberal brand is damaged goods and the Bloc is looking like a tired, one-trick pony. There is nowhere else to go for left-of-centre voters.

Update, the third: Forum Research says that the NDP is already in second place nationally:

“The Tories are ahead everywhere except Quebec, it’s all going to come down to what happens in Quebec,” says Mr. Bozinoff, noting the tradition of Quebec voters to move en masse when they have sharply changed preferences in past elections.

The survey of 2,727 voting-age Canadians was conducted Wednesday evening. It was an interactive voice response survey with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 per cent 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for regional and provincial breakdowns is slightly higher, but in such a large survey, with 348 citizens reached in the GTA alone, it is a reliable indicator of election trend lines.

Nationally, the survey gave the Conservative Party support from 36 per cent of decided and leaning voters, 25 per cent for the NDP, 23 per cent for the Liberal party, and six per cent each for the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois. A separate Forum Research analysis, based partly on ridings won and lost in the 2008 election, suggest the survey results would give the Conservatives 149 of the 308 Commons seats if an election were held today, with 71 seats for the NDP, 64 for the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois would have 24 seats.

My occasionally updated percentage tracker, now (thanks to commenter request) with a graph to match:


Why the headline inflation rate may not force the Bank of Canada to increase interest rates

Filed under: Cancon, Economics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 08:00

Stephen Gordon explains why the spike of certain prices may not trigger interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada:

The increase in the headline March CPI inflation rate is due to increases in a relatively small number of goods, and is best seen as a change in relative prices that will have only a transitory increase in the CPI. There are two ways that headline CPI can return to target. The first is that consumers adjust their spending patterns and substitute away from the goods whose prices have risen; the resulting fall in demand will bring prices back down. If this doesn’t happen, prices of other goods can fall — or at least rise more slowly — so that the rate of inflation of the broader index falls back to target.

The Bank of Canada is preoccupied with inflation, not fluctuations in relative prices, so the current increase in the CPI will only be a problem if firms and workers start using 3 per cent as a benchmark for increases in wages and the prices of other goods.

Even though the target is the headline CPI inflation rate, it is the Bank’s opinion that the core CPI inflation rate is a better predictor for future inflation. The components of core CPI are generally those whose prices are set infrequently and whose increases reflect expectations for future inflation as well as market conditions. If expected inflation starts to rise, it will be more visible in the core rate than in the headline number.

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