Quotulatiousness

March 14, 2011

Analysis of the Fukushima reactor situation

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Japan, Media, Technology — Tags: , , , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:06

Lewis Page sees the triple-whammy disaster that hit the Fukushima nuclear plant as proof of the design:

Let’s recap on what’s happened so far. The earthquake which hit on Friday was terrifically powerful, shaking the entire planet on its axis and jolting the whole of Japan several feet sideways. At 8.9 on the Richter scale, it was some five times stronger than the older Fukushima plants had been designed to cope with.

If nuclear powerplants were merely as safe as they are advertised to be, there should have been a major failure right then. As the hot cores ceased to be cooled by the water which is used to extract power from them, control rods would have remained withdrawn and a runaway chain reaction could have ensued — probably resulting in the worst thing that can happen to a properly designed nuclear reactor: a core meltdown in which the superhot fuel rods actually melt and slag down the whole core into a blob of molten metal. In this case the only thing to do is seal up the containment and wait: no radiation disaster will take place, but the reactor is a total writeoff and cooling the core off will be difficult and take a long time. Eventual cleanup will be protracted and expensive.

In fact, though the quake was far beyond design limits, all the reactors went into automatic shutdown perfectly: triumph number one. Control rods slammed into the cores, absorbing the neutrons spitting from the fuel rods and pinching off the uranium-fission chain reactions powering the plant.

[. . .]

For a few hours all was well. Then the tsunami — again, bigger than the plant had been built to cope with — struck, knocking out the diesel backups and the backup diesel backups.

Needless to say, this being a nuclear powerplant, there was another backup and this one worked despite having been through a beyond-spec quake and the tsunami. Battery power cut in and the cores continued to be cooled, giving the plant operators some hours of leeway to bring in mobile generators: triumph number three.

Unfortunately it appears that the devastation from the quake and tsunami was sufficient that mobile power wasn’t online at all the sites before the temperatures inside the cores began to climb seriously.

On the flip side, Colby Cosh finds the information sharing from the Japanese authorities to be less than helpful:

It’s a frustrating sequence of events to behold, and it has been made more so by the poor crisis management of the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) and the Japanese government. A serious nuclear incident is the whole world’s concern, and TEPCO and Japan have an obligation to explain to the world just what has happened. But English-language reports from the state broadcaster, NHK, have been shockingly feeble and confused. TEPCO’s press releases, meanwhile, are masterpieces of indecipherable technical and even legal jargon. (“As the reactor pressure suppression function was lost, at 5:22am, Mar 12th, it was determined that a specific incident stipulated in article 15, clause 1 has occurred.”)

The global public has been left to figure out for itself what to make of hazy videos of nuclear power facilities exploding. What little context we can assemble, as we try to interpret such a mortifying sight, arrives mostly in shreds provided by Western oracles — ones who, in their turn, seem to mostly be working from supposition and indirect evidence, and who may not be particularly independent from the nuclear industry.

No one should forget, while trying to make sense of what’s happening in Japan, that something like 300 people died in major coal mining accidents around the world in 2010 alone. None of those accidents involved natural disasters, and probably not all of them even involved culpable human error. We just accept a certain quantum of mortality as the cost of keeping the lights on — when it comes to every means of power generation, that is, except nukes. A death toll in the single digits from the Fukushima troubles would represent an amazing triumph of design robustness. (Especially if we judge the quality of Japanese engineers and regulators by their competence at communications.)

Canadian in Japan claims government “providing no help” to him

Filed under: Cancon, Government, Japan, Media — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:13

Phillip Ilijevski is shocked that the Canadian government hasn’t been providing him with personalized information on what’s happening near him:

A Toronto man living in Japan says the federal government is “providing no help” to Canadians wanting to know if they should leave the earthquake and tsunami-ravaged country, especially given the nuclear threat.

Phillip Ilijevski teaches English in Takasaki, about 100 kilometres north of Tokyo. He called Canada’s Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade to find out if it’s safe to stay in Japan, but says the only advice they gave him was to watch the news.

I have no idea why the Canadian government is expected to have better information on what’s happening in Japan in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami than the Japanese government, but it must be Stephen Harper’s fault, right?

If Mr. Ilijevski was in a third world nation with poor communications and little infrastructure, it might be reasonable to assume that Canadian officials would be in a better position to provide advice than local government, but in this case there’s no reason — Japan is better equipped to handle this kind of disaster (and public information flow) than just about any other nation on earth.

As jonkay said in a Twitter update: “As usual,when disaster strikes abroad, TStar’s #1 focus is finding a Canuck to bitch about how Ottawa isn’t helping him”

I’m not sure what a “paprade” is, but apparently Toronto had one

Filed under: Cancon, Humour, Media — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:56

I guess the weekend staff were celebrating St. Patrick’s day a little early, as not only the photo caption (left) but also the pa(p)rade directions leave you a little misdirected:

The parade begins at Bloor and St. George Sts. and heads west to Yonge, where it turns south and goes to Queen and then heads west again to University, ending just south of Dundas on University.

The streets are expected to be closed from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m., making driving to the parade difficult.

Highlighting mine. Going west from Bloor and St. George won’t get you to Yonge Street for a fair amount of time:

H/T to Chris Greaves for bringing this to my attention.

Toledo, Ohio

Filed under: Economics, History, Railways, USA — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:37

P.J. O’Rourke remembers his home town:

My hometown, Toledo, Ohio, is one of those junkyards of American capitalism, a deindustrialized old industrial city. The population has declined from 383,818 in 1970 to 316,851 today. The unemployment rate is 10.4 percent. Jeeps are still made there, but most Toledo factories are gone — Auto-Lite, Willys-Overland, Champion Spark Plug, the glass plants of Owens-Illinois and Libbey-Owens-Ford. Toledo Scales aren’t made in Toledo anymore.

Downtown, the department stores are closed, as are most of the shops, theaters, restaurants, and bars. The city’s center looks plucked. Half the buildings have been razed. Toledo is a failure.

Actually, Toledo always was a failure. Incorporated in 1837, with a fancy name for what had been called the Great Black Swamp, Toledo was a land scam. A canal joining the Ohio River to Lake Erie was supposed to have its terminus there. The scam collapsed that very year, in the Panic of 1837, when Andrew Jackson ended easy land-buying credit. The canal did open, but not until 1845, by which time railroads had taken over shipping.

Toledo tried to be a rail hub. In 1860 it had six railroads. They were all short-line operations, each with a different track gauge and none connected to long-haul routes. Toledo’s Erie and Kalamazoo Rail Road never reached Kalamazoo.

March 13, 2011

Twitter updates from a Guild Wars 2 panel at PAX East

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 11:09

No, I’m not there, but the nice folks at GuildMag were sending tweets from the panel:

From a series of Twitter updates by GuildMag:

  • Panel is Colin, John, Regina, Randy, Jeff, Tirzah, and Andrew! Playing the manifesto for the newbies.
  • Colin introduces GW2. Yes, there is jumping. No, no monthly fee. Arenanet founded to innovate: personal story, dynamic events & combat
  • Dynamic events scale with population: more mobs will spawn, or a boss will grow in power & gain new skills with more players
  • No kill steals or mob tagging. All participants will gain loot and experience.
  • Active combat: line of sight and positioning are important. Mobs can block projectiles or you can face the wrong way and miss
  • Question: is there a way for players to know when dynamic events around the world are going on? A: yes. You can also leave before they are finished and still get rewards
  • Q: do dynamic events have fast resets? A: we can’t make unlimited one time events. You may run into the same one more than once but they are scripted so the resets are longer.
  • Q: how do you plan to keep people playing? A: there are different personal stories, mini games, dungeons, rated PvP for tournaments. WvW
  • You can level from 1-80 in world vs world, players drop loot.
  • Q: how does the game handle different levels? A: you’ll be sidekicked down in low level content or up to play with high level friends
  • Q: life span of norn? A: they live into the triple digits but die from battle. Leader ?? had son at 80. They are young and vital for many years
  • Q: how will you know where to go and find events? A: you can talk to scouts, they direct players. But players can just explore and find events on their own
  • Q: do you plan on “mini-patching” new dynamic events? A: we have a solid live team, you can expect more content
  • Dynamic event scaling AI detects participation: players can’t stand around and do nothing and get credit.
  • Q: how do you avoid accidentally logging out and back into enemy territory? A: you can teleport to rally points

March 12, 2011

Drinking is good for you, but we still don’t know why it’s good for you

Filed under: Health, Science, Wine — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 14:17

Moderate drinking (defined as 2-3 drinks per day) is proven to be healthy for most people, but the jury is still out on why it’s good for you:

Scientists say that more research needs to be done to understand why alcohol may be beneficial in small doses. Most commonly, evidence shows that alcohol is associated with increased cardiovascular health. Researchers at the University of Calgary recently analyzed data on alcohol consumption and heart disease and determined that those who drink one to two glasses of alcohol per day are up to 25% less likely to develop heart disease.

The team, lead by Dr. William Ghali, found that moderate drinking led to higher levels of “good” cholesterol and a decrease of a chemical responsible for blood clotting. It doesn’t matter if the booze is from Chateau Mouton-Rothschild or Labatt’s; “it does appear to be alcohol itself that is causing these favourable outcomes,” Dr. Ghali, a professor of medicine at the university, said.

Len Pasquarelli calls for a new leader for the NFL player negotiations

Filed under: Football, USA — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 14:09

You’d have to say that Len Pasquarelli really isn’t a fan of the current leader of the players’ negotiation efforts:

As the NFL and the group formerly known as the union continue to point fingers, it appears one man was focused on celebrity status more than negotiating. DeMaurice Smith’s predecessor knew how to cut a deal, something Smith could have learned from.

Paraphrasing the old joke about how one might characterize a thousand attorneys buried at the bottom of the ocean floor: What do you call a fast-talkin’ lawyer with a decertified union, no pulpit from which to preach to a congregation and technically no association to executively direct?

A good start.

At the risk of alienating the rank-and-file — and less important, since I wasn’t on the Twitter or fax accounts of assistant executive director/minister of propaganda George Attallah, the NFLPA brass — the Friday afternoon decertification maneuver by the players’ association was the move DeMaurice Smith has had in mind for a long time. And now the fait has met the accompli, and it’s time for the NFLPA to turn to someone who knows how to cut a deal.

We’re not smart enough, or well enough versed in labor law, to have prepared any suggestions. But there has got to be, somewhere, anywhere, a viable alternative to Smith, essentially Elmer Gantry in a business suit and goofy hat. Smith exponentially raised the ante with his incendiary rhetoric, demonizing the league and its owners and their financial statements, declaring the negotiations a war.

Well, on Friday afternoon, he may have won a battle. But in egotistically rejecting a treaty that would have ended the war for another half-dozen years or so, and made his constituents a lot of money, he may have led his mesmerized charges to the brink of football hell.

NFL Players’ union moves to decertify

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 13:06

The negotiations between the NFL and the players’ union went down to the wire and then past it:

A week of extended negotiations between the National Football League and the NFL Players Association have failed to produce a new labor contract.

The team owners have threatened to lock out the players — a move that could affect the scheduled start of the season this coming fall. There is even a chance that the entire season could be lost. Although most experts see that as unlikely, rating agency Standard & Poor’s has said it believes the owners have the financial wherewithal to go a full year without games being played.

With the failure of the talks, the union immediately moved to decertify itself Friday afternoon. That opened the door for a antitrust lawsuit against the league by some of the union’s star players, including quarterbacks Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

The players hope to win their arguments in court rather than at the negotiating table. But now that there is no longer a union to negotiate with the owners, resuming talks and reaching a new agreement are much more problematic.

Earthquake, tsunami, and worse

Filed under: Environment, Japan, Pacific — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:04

The earthquake by itself was one of the biggest ever recorded, and then the tsunami compounded the quake damage and will make relief and rescue efforts that much harder. Kevin Voigt has more:

The powerful earthquake that unleashed a devastating tsunami Friday appears to have moved the main island of Japan by 8 feet (2.4 meters) and shifted the Earth on its axis.

“At this point, we know that one GPS station moved (8 feet), and we have seen a map from GSI (Geospatial Information Authority) in Japan showing the pattern of shift over a large area is consistent with about that much shift of the land mass,” said Kenneth Hudnut, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Reports from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy estimated the 8.9-magnitude quake shifted the planet on its axis by nearly 4 inches (10 centimeters).

The temblor, which struck Friday afternoon near the east coast of Japan, killed hundreds of people, caused the formation of 30-foot walls of water that swept across rice fields, engulfed entire towns, dragged houses onto highways, and tossed cars and boats like toys. Some waves reached six miles (10 kilometers) inland in Miyagi Prefecture on Japan’s east coast.

Another major concern is the ongoing struggle to regain control of one of the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant:

An explosion at an earthquake-struck nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor’s temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday.

Workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant have begun flooding the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor’s temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days.

Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation to include a radius of 20 kilometers (about 12.5 miles) around the plant. The evacuation previously reached out to 10 kilometers.

H/T to Chris Taylor for the link.

This week in Guild Wars 2 news

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 00:06

I’ve been accumulating news snippets about the as-yet-to-be-formally-scheduled release of Guild Wars 2 for an email newsletter I send out to my friends and acquaintances in the Guild Wars community.

Part 1: Discussion of previous news

Part 2: Guild Wars news

  • One of the minor irritations about the big Guild Wars update last week was that all UI customizations got reset (this was probably caused by adding all the extra hero slots on your Inventory). Then, to compound the problem, they had to reset the UI again to fix a problem with the Mercenary Hero secondary profession.

Part 3: Guild Wars 2 news

  • PC Gamer has a 10 minute clip of combat in Guild Wars 2.
  • Guild Wars 2Behind the Scenes” interview with Daniel Dociu, Martin Kerstein, Isaiah Cartwright and Ree Soesbee. (35 minutes)
  • INC Gamers picks their favourite clips from the GDC sessions.
  • The folks at GuildMag lay out their plans for the PAX East show this weekend.
  • Flameseeker Chronicles: Feast or Famine. “Wow! I’ve joked to other Massively staffers that some weeks I really struggle to find content for Flameseeker Chronicles, while other weeks I struggle simply to stay ahead of the information avalanche. That has never held truer than it has this weekend.”
  • ArenaNet’s plans for PAX East, including the new bells and whistles for each of the revealed character classes so far.
  • Isaiah Cartwright with (almost) everything you want to know about Attributes and Iteration. “We often mention iteration in interviews, at trade shows, and here on the blog. But what does it mean when we talk about the iterative process? I’d like to walk you through some changes we’ve made to the Guild Wars 2 attribute system to give you a better idea of our design philosophy.”
  • Crafting in Guild Wars 2, by Andrew McLeod. “Characters can be proficient in up to two crafting disciplines at a time. We feel that this allows players to have a good variety in the items that they can craft, but still maintains player interaction and exchange. It also gives a stronger focus on the specifics of what you can craft- especially with the depth and size of each of our crafting professions.”
  • A bit more on the new crafting system from Massively.
  • Catch a glimpse of the thief.
  • ArenaNet staff provide more details on the Thief. “The interview with Eric Flannum, Jon Peters, and Isaiah Cartwright builds on much of what we already know: dual pistols, stealth skills, stealing, and so on.”
  • The updated official Thief page at the Guild Wars 2 website.
  • The “ultimate” PAX-East forum thread.
  • Livestream of this morning’s session with lots of interesting combat footage, featuring the Thief and the Guardian teaming up for a few dynamic events. Skip ahead about 10 minutes to the start of the actual presentation.
  • (So late breaking, it missed the actual email newsletter) Thick as Thieves — a more in-depth look at the Thief class, including this insight (which, based on viewing the videos, I rather agree with) “Despite the intention of making the class as easy-to-understand as possible, the team believes that many first-time Thieves will find themselves dying horribly. Players are used to going toe-to-toe with monsters, and the Thief is built around hopping in-and-out of combat. If you don’t know when to back off, you’re going to die.”

March 11, 2011

Another oddity of British law

Filed under: Britain, Law, Liberty — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 17:19

I was unaware, until today, that it is possible to get a legal injunction that effectively prevents anyone from knowing that the injunction has been issued: a “super injunction“:

The existence of the draconian injunction — so strict it prevents $PERSON being identified as a $OCCUPATION — was disclosed by John Hemming, a back-bench Liberal Democrat MP, in a question during a business debate at the House on Thursday morning. His comments are protected by parliamentary privilege.

He said: “In a secret hearing $PERSON has obtained a super-injunction preventing him being identified as a $OCCUPATION.

“Will the government have a debate or a statement on freedom of speech and whether there’s one rule for the rich like $PERSON and one rule for the poor?”

Leader of the House Sir George Young said a forthcoming Westminster Hall debate would explore freedom of speech, adding: “I will raise with the appropriate minister the issue he has just raised.”

The terms of the injunction are so strict that the Daily Telegraph cannot reveal the nature of the information that $PERSON is attempting to protect.

Because I am not rich, I’ve chosen to avoid including any information which may fall under the strict terms of the injunction . . . others are not being as careful, so you can find out who the rich wanker is and what occupation he wants to prevent the public from discovering by reading the whole thing.

Examining externalities

Filed under: Economics, Government, Liberty — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:54

Predrag Rajsic looks at the economic case for governments to address externalities:

Some theorists claim that externalities are probably the most legitimate reason for state intervention in human interactions. The ethical case for intervention is that it can presumably increase overall economic efficiency. This article demonstrates that, even if one accepts this ethical principle, the usual choice of externality-generating actions that are believed to justify state intervention is purely arbitrary.

In fact, according to the definition of actions with external effects, any human action in a multi-individual society would qualify for regulation under the banner of improving economic efficiency (i.e., internalizing externalities). However, the nature of human existence renders this internalization impossible. Thus, we end up with a paradoxical situation where every action inevitably fails the ethical criterion we have put in front of ourselves.

[. . .]

Government intervention is commonly believed to be the correcting mechanism. In the cases where too much of an action is being performed, the government should coercively limit the externality-creating action (regulations, taxes, penalties, quotas, etc.) Alternatively, actions that result in positive externalities should be encouraged using the means available to the government (i.e., subsidies).

These government interventions are supposed to move the economy to the output mix as close as possible to the mix supposedly predicated by the model of perfect competition. In this sense, the model of perfect competition is adopted as a measuring stick for determining the ethical validity of individual action. According to this principle, one ought not act without taking into account the effect of his or her actions on all other individuals within the economy.

Reason.TV: Should governments subsidize alternative energy?

Filed under: Economics, Government, Technology — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:48

Nothing to see here, citizen iPhone 3G user, move along

Filed under: Technology — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 12:31

An impertinent Apple iPhone 3G user risks becoming a non-person by asking why Apple’s latest security fixes exclude customers using earlier iPhones:

A Reg reader who brought up Apple’s decision to exclude the iPhone 3G and other older devices from its latest security update on an official forum has received a firm rebuke for his effort.

Apparently the post, which was quickly deleted, failed three separate rules of the Apple Discussions soviet, as a curt notice to our source explained (extract below):

Apple removed your post on Apple Discussions, titled “Please Apple, you cannot leave a major share of your customers vulnerable,” because it contained the following:

Speculation or Rumors Discussion of Apple Policies, Procedures or Decisions Petitions

Damn straight. Frankly our man can consider himself fortunate not to have his account deleted for suggesting Apple (at minimum) ought to release patches for Safari for the iPhone 3G. An iOS 4.3 update, released on Wednesday, which includes a number of critical security fixes, is incompatible with both the iPhone 3G and older versions of the iPod Touch. You need the iPhone 3GS, or later, or iPod Touch third generation to take advantage of the update, which includes a number of critical security fixes as well as performance and functionality improvements.

You don’t question us, Apple customer. We question you.

Amazon recommendation fail

Filed under: Books, Economics, Europe, France, History, Media — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:45

Like many of you, I’ve bought lots of books from Amazon over the years. Knowing a fair bit about my book-buying habits, their recommendations for books I might be interested in are usually pretty good. Today’s email rather missed the mark:

I’m not sure how that book relates in any way to the work of Fernand Braudel:

Fernand Braudel (24 August 1902 – 27 November 1985) was a French historian and a leader of the Annales School. His scholarship focused on three main projects, each representing several decades of intense study: The Mediterranean (1923–49, then 1949–66), Civilization and Capitalism (1955–79), and the unfinished Identity of France (1970–85). His reputation stems in part from his writings, but even more from his success in making the Annales School the most important engine of historical research in France and much of the world after 1950. As the dominant leader of the Annales School of historiography in the 1950s and 1960s, he exerted enormous influence on historical writing in France and other countries.

Braudel has been considered one of the greatest of the modern historians who have emphasized the role of large-scale socioeconomic factors in the making and writing of history.[1] He can also be considered as one of the precursors of World Systems Theory.

If you’ve browsed the history section, you’ll have seen them:

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