Quotulatiousness

March 19, 2011

Trying to sort out truth from speculation at Fukushima

The only thing that is certain about the Fukushima situation right now is that both the operating company (Tokyo Electric Power Co. aka TEPCO) and the Japanese government have been ridiculously slow to provide information. They may or may not be actively concealing what they know, but they’re taking far too long to share what they do know with the rest of the world.

Inline update: New Scientist has a timeline of Japanese nuclear cover-ups and accidents. [end update]

wormme is a radiological control technician, so he’s very well informed about the overall picture — in a way non-specialists are not — and he’s had an epiphany about Fukushima:

See the light bulb above my head? Lesson Learned!

My first post on Fukushima is still the most widely read. Alas. I’m a radiological control technician who wasn’t paranoid about a radiological situation. Never good. Never acceptable. So I’ve been “hotwashing” myself ever since.

Where did I go wrong? What was the first cause, the primary mistake? I had to know in order to answer the most important question of all:

How do I never make that mistake again?

I turned a nifty phrase in “incalculable danger”, got generous links . . . then steam began venting and cores melting and hydrogen exploding and fuel pools leaking and spent fuel smoldering, all at once, with my brain sprinting like a hamster on a wheel and making about as much progress.

How did Fukushima have several quiet days after the event and only then have the Hellmouth open?

No lesson learned.

Then a couple of days ago we learned the site went six days without electricity. That monstrous tsunami took out the electrical backups, the backup-backups, and the backup-backup-backups in one fell swoop.

And I thought, ”well, that explains most everything”.

But still, no lesson learned.

It’s only now, right now, the realization: I wrote the post assuming that they had electrical power.

Not even an assumption, really. It wasn’t even a consideration. Of course they had power. They couldn’t possibly not have power.

But they did not have power.

Lesson Learned: the Japanese are different from Americans.

He also has interesting and highly informative posts (earlier than the one quoted above, so perhaps to be read with that in mind) on radiation poisoning, stuff that can cause a meltdown, some crappy radiological terminology, characteristics of radiation(s) and shielding(s), why the spent fuel is a bigger problem than the reactors, nuclear triage, time, distance, and shielding, spent fuel pools, first notes on the “Event Summary” file, and how NOT to wear a respirator.

Andrew Sullivan: It’s time to rein in the Imperial Presidency

Filed under: Africa, Government, Law, Military, USA — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 09:32

I stopped reading Andrew Sullivan a long time ago, when he seemed to lose his mind over Sarah Palin and her family. If this is typical of his writing these days, perhaps he’s recovered from his temporary obsession:

The president’s speech was disturbingly empty. There are, it appears, only two reasons the US is going to war, without any Congressional vote, or any real public debate. The first is that the US cannot stand idly by while atrocities take place. Yet we have done nothing in Burma or the Congo and are actively supporting governments in Yemen and Bahrain that are doing almost exactly — if less noisily — what Qaddafi is doing. Obama made no attempt to reconcile these inconsistencies because, one suspects, there is no rational reconciliation to be made.

Secondly, the president argued that the ghastly violence in Libya is destabilizing the region, and threatening world peace. Really? More than Qaddafi’s meddling throughout Africa for years? More than the brutal repression in Iran? And even if it is destabilizing, Libya is not, according to the Obama administration itself, a “vital national interest”. So why should the US go to war over this?

So what is to be done? Sullivan has an answer:

The proper response to this presidential power-grab is a Congressional vote — as soon as possible.

That will reveal the factions that support this kind of return to the role of global policeman, and force the GOP to go on the record. I also look forward to the statements of the various Republican candidates in support of this president.

But it seems clear enough: exactly the same alliance that gave us Iraq is giving us Libya: the neocons who want to see the US military deployed across the globe in the defense of freedom and the liberal interventionists who believe that the US should intervene whenever atrocities are occurring. What these two groups have in common is an unrelenting focus on the reason for intervention along with indifference to the vast array of unintended consequences their moralism could lead us into. I do not doubt their good intentions and motives. No human being can easily watch a massacre and stand by. Yet we did so with Iran; and we are doing so in Yemen and Bahrain as we speak, and have done so for decades because we rightly make judgments based on more than feeling.

American Digest: This is why Kodak is withering away

Filed under: Bureaucracy, History, Randomness — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:11

Tell me that this simple idea has never occurred to anyone at Kodak:

If the company that calls itself Kodak today had a brain, it would copy the “Instamatic 100” from Kodak’s greatest hits, drop a first rate lens in it, add some great chips, a view screen as big as the back of the camera, and rebrand it as the “Kodak Digimatic 100.” Instant win.

Kodak Instamatic

They’ll never be cool enough to do it. Somewhere in the 1990s, Kodak lost the ability to design and innovate. Once the king of the camera world, Kodak’s now just the place where bad designs and worse marketing go to die. Today, Kodak needs a brain the same way Scarecrow needed one in the first reel of “Wizard of Oz.” Like Scarecrow, there’s a long brick road awinding into the land of its dreams.

It wasn’t always that way. There was a time when it seemed that everyone in America owned an Instamatic. It was a camera that, in its simplicity, elegance and rock-bottom cost, was an icon of its age

Of course, doing it now would be far too late: this was a winning strategy for 2001, not 2011. If they do it now, it’ll flop because they’ve squandered all the immense goodwill that used to be associated with the company name. It was the “everyman” camera and film: professionals had their specialized cameras and even more specialized film, but everyone else just bought Kodak. Kodak was “good enough”, dependable, predictable.

It takes immense lack of talent to fumble that much potential so thoroughly and so consistently. Almost a genius level of anti-talent at the corporate level.

This week in Guild Wars 2 news

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 00:08

I’ve been accumulating news snippets about the as-yet-to-be-formally-scheduled release of Guild Wars 2 for an email newsletter I send out to my friends and acquaintances in the Guild Wars community.

Part 1: Discussion of previous news

  • Rubi asks if ArenaNet’s introduction of Mercenary Heroes to Guild Wars is approaching the pay-to-win line.

Part 2: Guild Wars news

  • There was a game update on Thursday to fix a bug that ended the “lucky weekend” early. The event will now end on Friday.
  • Skill update preview. “In an update next week, we will address some PvP issues that came up as a result of our latest Dervish update. To give our tournament players time to plan ahead, we’re releasing all the skill-related update notes in advance. After the last MAT, we decided to tone down several Dervish skills that proved to be stronger than intended. Additionally, this update will address the power of Blood Magic Necromancers and some other builds that have gotten a little out of line. Finally, we will make a few small buffs to Mesmers and Elementalists.”

Part 3: Guild Wars 2 news

  • Here’s a thought for you, especially if you use one of the Guild Wars wikis for more than just looking up stats: if Guild Wars 2 is going to be non-mission/non-quest in the traditional style (that is, pretty much everything in PvE play is driven by dynamic event chains), will you still find the wiki to be as useful?
  • Fifteen things we learned from last week’s Guild Wars 2 combat footage: “Last week we posted a massive 10-minute long video of pure, unadulterated carnage in Guild Wars 2. Of course, the GW2 fan communities rabidly analyzed every tiny detail of the video in the hunt for new info, and we were right there in the trenches with them. In particular, we chatted with the the fans over at Guild Wars 2 Guru as they discussed and debated everything they found in our video.”
  • I already mailed this one out separately: a series of Twitter updates by the GuildMag folks, and a video of the panel from which they were sending the Tweets – http://quotulatiousness.ca/blog/2011/03/13/twitter-updates-from-a-guild-wars-2-panel-at-pax-east/
  • Ravious at Kill Ten Rats tries to consolidate all the information we’ve been given about the Thief class. “The best thieves are going to live on the razor’s edge having a sustained skill barrage with going as close to zero initiative as possible.”
  • Randomessa pores over all the videos to discover clues to things that haven’t been directly discussed by ArenaNet. “New dynamic events will be added on the fly after the game’s release, and not publicized, for explorers to discover on their own. I have no intention of wiki-ing these.”
  • Dynamic Events” a Guild Wars 2 comic.
  • Hands-on preview of the Guardian class. “The guardian is easily going to be a class that will be for masters of the game. High leveled dungeons and the hardest of missions will put the pressure on this class and make him a needed commodity. I only got a taste of this class and I am already dead set on having him as my primary character when the game arrives.”
  • PAX East interview and demo. “I would be a bloody liar if I said that Guild Wars 2 wasn’t one of my major reasons for going to PAX East. I’ve been playing the original Guild Wars since the launch of GW: Factions back on April, 2006. Guild Wars is the game I always fall back on when I’m in-between games, and as a result, I’ve logged over 2,000 hours in the game. It’s safe to say I’m pretty darn excited about the sequel.”
  • Martin Kerstein’s wrap-up of PAX East on the official site. “We’ve safely returned from PAX East to ArenaNet World Headquarters here in Seattle, weary but exhilarated after such an incredible show. I wanted to take a moment to share some of the highlights of our PAX East experience with you.”
  • Ravious had a fascinating interview with ArenaNet staff at PAX East: “there was one dominant theme in my talks with Peters and Sharp, they are still iterating on nearly every mechanical feature in Guild Wars 2. It is important to keep in mind that even things fans “know” now because of the demo, interviews, or official articles might be obsolete on launch.”
  • Top honours for two ArenaNet artists in the Spectrum 18 awards.

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