Quotulatiousness

April 29, 2025

Canadian federal election result

Filed under: Cancon, Media, Politics — Tags: , , , , , , — Nicholas @ 03:00

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1 Comment

  1. Matt Gurney on the social media site formerly known as Twitter:

    I’m sifting through some of the numbers I’m gonna make a few observations here. I’m not offering these as editorial positions. I’ll figure out what I actually think about them later. But here’s what I noticed this morning.

    Pierre Poilievre won over a million more votes in Ontario than Doug Ford did two months ago.

    CPC overperformed. Polling miss or late swing? I’d guess more the latter.

    Narrative of a CPC blown lead looks shaky. Their polling maximum was what, 45ish? They’re finishing only about three points off of that.

    Put that another way: Liberals bounced by about 25 points and maybe three of those came from the CPC, tops?

    As good as the CPC might feel this morning to have avoided some of the scenarios they were worried about only two weeks ago, the leader losing his seat is an astonishing failure by the campaign. There were plenty of indicators, and they were dismissed right to my face as bad-faith dirty tricks or a bought-and-paid-for fake-news media having it in for them. Well. Not so much.

    I have no particular thoughts about Bruce Fanjoy but I obviously congratulate him. He worked incredibly hard. A late friend of mine, whom I miss very much, was a huge fan of his. That brought a smile to my face this morning.

    Quebec numbers are fascinating. Anyone have a recent poll on support for separatism?

    Observation: weird map. This kind of outcome was foreseeable in terms of overall seat count. I dunno anyone who thought it would look like this.

    This isn’t a worst-case outcome to my mind. But it’s pretty close. We have a re-elected Liberal government that did not get enough of a mandate to really risk anything bold or transformational. But won enough of a mandate to probably have some longevity. So we’ll stagnate even further.

    Anyway. Nap time.

    Comment by Nicholas — April 29, 2025 @ 10:39

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