Quotulatiousness

April 27, 2013

The last Beguine

Filed under: Europe, History, Religion — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:53

An obituary (and short history lesson) in The Economist:

AT THE heart of several cities in Belgium lies an unexpected treasure. A gate in a high brick wall creaks open, to reveal a cluster of small, whitewashed, steep-roofed houses round a church. Cobbled alleyways run between them and tiny lawns, thickly planted with flowers, grow in front of them. The cosiness, the neatness and the quiet suggest a hortus conclusus, a medieval metaphor both for virginal women and the walled garden of paradise.

Any veiled women seen there now, however, processing to Mass or tying up hollyhocks in their dark habits and white wimples, are ghosts. Marcella Pattyn was the last of them, ending a way of life that had endured for 800 years.

These places were not convents, but beguinages, and the women in them were not nuns, but Beguines. In these communities, which sprang up spontaneously in and around the cities of the Low Countries from the early 13th century, women led lives of prayer, chastity and service, but were not bound by vows. They could leave; they made their own rules, without male guidance; they were encouraged to study and read, and they were expected to earn their keep by working, especially in the booming cloth trade. They existed somewhere between the world and the cloister, in a state of autonomy which was highly unusual for medieval women and highly disturbing to medieval men.

Nor, to be honest, was it the first thing Juffrouw Marcella thought of when, as a girl, she realised that her dearest wish was to serve her Lord. But she was blind, or almost so, and no other community would accept her. She wanted to work, too, and was not sure she could in an ordinary convent. The beguinages had originally been famous for taking the “spare” or “surplus” women who crowded into 13th-century cities in search of jobs. Even so, the first community she tried sent her back after a week, unable to find a use for her. (In old age she still wept at the thought of all the rejections, dabbing with a handkerchief at her blue unseeing eyes.) A rich aunt intervened with a donation to keep her there, and from the age of 21 she was a Beguine.

The Caspian Sea as a potential trouble zone

Filed under: Asia, Military, Russia — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:46

Strategy Page provides some background on the possibility of conflict on the Caspian in the post-Soviet era:

The Caspian Sea, long a Russian lake, is now witnessing a naval arms race. Before the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, the only nations bordering the Caspian were Russia (with most of the coastline) and Iran. But now those two nations have been joined by parts of the Soviet Union that have become independent states (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan). It goes downhill from there.

Iran shares a land border with Azerbaijan and has a historical claim on Azerbaijan. In the 19th century Azerbaijan (as in the area occupied the Azeris, a Turkic people) was divided by Russia and Iran. Currently about a quarter of the Iranian population is Azeri, but the Azeris of Azerbaijan believe all Azeris should be part of an independent Azerbaijan. This was how it was for centuries before Turkey, Russia and Iran began seeking to conquer Azerbaijan. Some Iranian Azeris like this idea and Iran is always looking for ways to make Azerbaijan back off. So Iran is building up its Caspian naval forces, which is annoying Russia more than Azerbaijan.

The Iranian buildup includes a new corvette, an Iranian built 1,400 ton ship. Azerbaijan responded by buying $1.6 billion worth of weapons from Israel (which angered Iran a great deal.) Among the items ordered were Gabriel anti-ship missiles. These are 522 kg (1,150 pound) weapons with a range of 36 kilometers. Azerbaijan will use these to protect its Caspian Sea coast from the growing number of Iranian warships being introduced in the area. Most of the Iranian Caspian “fleet” consists of small patrol boats. Some are armed with anti-ship missiles but they are basically coast guard type craft.

What really controls the Caspian is aircraft and Russia has the most of those. Russia also has the only water link to the ocean and thus the ability to bring in more warships on short notice. These, plus Russia’s larger air force gives Russia the edge.

The misplaced outrage over Amazon’s tiny tax bill in the UK

Filed under: Books, Britain, Business, Economics, Europe, Media — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 08:40

Tim Worstall explains that the current efforts by various campaigners including Stephen Fry are not only a waste of time and effort, but betray a fundamental misunderstanding of how the EU is set up:

There are several points that could be made. One being that selling to Brits from Luxembourg is not tax dodging, it’s exactly what the EU intends the Single Market should be. A, umm, single market across 27 countries. A second might be that even if we start to whine about UK warehouses, tax is still not due here. Our double taxation treaty with Luxembourg means that such warehouses do not lead to tax being due. And that’s from 1968 or so when Wilson ruled: it’s also a standard part of all double taxation treaties and for good reason.

(For example, the metals trade uses warehouses in Rotterdam as the point at which a contract is concluded. The cut flowers business warehouses in a small village near Schipol. Should Holland get all the tax from the world’s metals and flower businesses? Or should everyone be taxed where they really are, not the warehouses?)

But there’s much worse than this. We’ve had the Margaret Hodges screeching that we’re talking about immoral, not illegal. The TJN and other fools similarly scream about how awful it is that people can do business without paying tax. And it is precisely all of this activism that leads these gentle booksellers to spend their year collecting signatures. To absolutely no avail whatsoever.

For in the year they are complaining about, last year, 2012, Amazon did not make a profit. A $39 million loss in fact according to their accounts. It’s simply not true that “tax dodging” by Amazon is leading to the crucifixtion of the independent book shop. That’s a lie that’s been foisted upon people by the obfuscations of the campaigners.

April 26, 2013

This week in Guild Wars 2

Filed under: Gaming — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 11:24

My weekly Guild Wars 2 community round-up at GuildMag is now online. This week has lots of information about the final chapter of the Flame and Frost living story and new sPvP features plus the usual assortment of blog posts, videos, podcasts, and fan fiction from around the GW2 community.

Minnesota introduces new policy for dealing with veterans

Filed under: Humour, Military, USA — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 10:30

You may not hear about this in the mainstream press, but The Duffel Blog digs for the real story:

Officials from the Minnesota Department of Motor Vehicles have confirmed approval of a new policy making it mandatory for all active-duty and military veterans to register their status with the agency. The move will require all veterans to have a special “Vet” designation on their drivers’ licenses and state identification cards.

The Minn. DMV, which hopes to have the policy implemented by 2015, cites an inherent mental health threat by veterans as their main reason for devising the plan.

“We’ve seen what these savages are capable of all over CNN and MSNBC,” says DMV director, Greg Olson. “Out of all the millions of men and women who have deployed to combat zones this past decade, there are literally a dozen, perhaps even two, who have come home and committed atrocious acts. That’s way too big a chance. We can’t risk having these people hidden in our community and will be making sure they’re easily identifiable to law enforcement personnel and citizens in general.”

The new strategy will most likely result in changed police escalation-of-force procedure when dealing with veterans during routine traffic stops.

According to Olson, law enforcement officers will be given more opportunity to defend themselves against a perceived threat.

“Phase One will consist of the officer identifying an individual’s vet status on his or her driver’s license,” he says. “Once the officer realizes what he or she is dealing with, Phase Two will kick in and they will immediately unsheathe their pistol and drawdown on the potential psychopath. Then, at Phase Three, the officer will be given free reign to search the individual’s vehicle for weapons and dead bodies. If, and only if, the officer doesn’t find anything, then he will subsequently release the veteran and thank them for their service.”

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The PC is dying!

Filed under: Media, Technology — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:24

Matt Baxter-Reynolds challenges the Chicken Littles of the tech reporting world:

There are two problems with the statement “the PC is dying”. The first problem is that people like their PCs, and hearing that something that they have affection for is dying, or it isn’t relevant, or it’s going away, can be inflammatory.

The second, bigger problem, is that people when hearing this look at the PC that is today and has been a useful tool oftentimes for decades, and rightfully regard the statement as just being non-sensical. It’s patently untrue.

The idea of waking up one morning and finding a world bereft of PCs is silly. Most people reading this couldn’t do their jobs, studies, or hobbies without having access to a PC.

What is meant by “the death of the PC” is that the relevance of the PC within people’s lives is being diluted by compute devices that are not PCs and the ability to use them for activities that are rewarding yet do not require PCs. This has in fact been going on a long time (e.g. SMS), it’s just that we’ve reached a tipping point over the past few years where the whole world seems to be full of smartphones and tablets and everyone is now talking about it.

Vikings make three picks in the first round of the draft

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:32

As I mentioned yesterday, the Vikings had 11 picks in the 2013 NFL draft to begin with, but that the number of picks might change frequently during the three day event. It changed even more than I expected, as after using their first pick on defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and their second pick on cornerback Xavier Rhodes, the Vikings traded back into the first round and selected wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson.

Of course, you don’t get the 29th pick in the draft for free: Minnesota sent their 2nd, 3rd, one of their two picks in the 4th, and the last of their 7th round picks to the New England Patriots. It sounds like a terrible rate of exchange, but according to the unofficial draft value chart the 29th pick is worth 640 points, while the bundle of picks the Vikings gave up is worth 649.5 points.

The Vikings moved up 23 spots from 52 overall to 29, and if you’re a fan of the NFL trade value chart, it was an even trade. The 29 pick is worth 640 points, and the Vikings gave up picks that are valued at about 600. Everyone is going on about four picks for one, but the Vikes still have a fourth round pick, and really, who gives a hoot about a 7th round throwaway pick?

So let’s calm down on the ‘Vikings got fleeced’ talk for a bit, because right now they added three starters in positions of need that will immediately pay dividends.

But Rick Spielman has officially become Crazy Uncle Rick The Riverboat Gambler, and by God, I love it. This 2013 first round will be the turning point for the Vikings: they’re either heading towards the elite of the NFL or into oblivion, but they aren’t treading water. Isn’t that right, Kenny Rogers?

So, on the first day of the draft, the Vikings addressed three of the their top four needs, but it will be tough to find a starting-quality middle linebacker in the 4th round (and I doubt they have enough picks left to trade up very far unless they start shopping next year’s draft picks, too). Yesterday, I identified what I considered to be the team’s top requirements and MLB was the one I thought most urgent. It’s going to be fascinating to see what they do in that area, given that their next pick isn’t until Saturday…

(more…)

April 25, 2013

What we “know” as opposed to what is actually true

Filed under: Business, Football, Health, Law — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 13:36

We all know the NFL is in serious trouble as more evidence comes out about the relationship between playing professional football and brain damage in later life. But what we know may not be true:

Dr. Everett Lehman, part of a team of government scientists who studied mortality rates for NFL retirees at the behest of the players’ union, discovered that the pros live longer than their male counterparts outside of the NFL. The scientists looked at more than 3,000 pension-vested NFL retirees and expected 625 deaths. They found only 334. “There has been this perception over a number of years of people dying at 55 on the average,” Dr. Lehman told me. “It’s just based on a faulty understanding of statistics.”

The scientists also learned that, contrary to conventional wisdom, NFL players commit suicide at a dramatically lower rate than the general male population. The suicides of Junior Seau, Dave Duerson, and Andre Waters don’t represent a trend but outliers that attract massive attention, and thereby massively distort the public’s perception. More typical was the death of Pat Summerall, who passed away quietly last week at 82 after a productive post-career career.

Indeed, a 2009 study by University of Michigan researchers reported that NFL retirees are far more likely to own a home, possess a college degree, and enjoy health insurance than their peers who never played in the league. The myth of the broke and broken-down athlete is just that: a myth. A few surely struggle after competition ceases; most apply their competitive natures to new endeavors.

It’s true that skill-position players on rosters for five or more years in the NFL faced elevated levels of Alzheimer’s, Lou Gehrig’s, and Parkinson’s disease deaths. But some perspective is in order. Of the 3,439 retired athletes studied by Lehman’s group, less than a dozen succumbed to deaths directly attributable to these neurodegenerative killers. Had Parkinson’s killed one rather than the two retirees it did kill, for example, its rate would have been lower among players than among the general population.

It’s quite possible the NFL is concerned (and ensuring that it is seen to be concerned) primarily because of the need to address public perceptions, rather than as a defensive move against future or ongoing legal challenges.

Predict the draft?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:21

As I say every year around this time, I don’t follow college football so except for the odd name I kinda-sorta recognize, I don’t have particularly strong feelings about who the Vikings should be drafting this year. Before the first round starts this evening, they hold two first-round picks and nine picks in the other six rounds. This number will almost certainly change several times over the weekend as teams swap picks to move up or down in the draft order.

One constant everyone seems to understand is that the can’t miss top-tier players are limited, and they are pretty much guaranteed to be gone just before your team is on the clock. This is what drives fans crazy: their stubborn general manager/owner won’t trade up to get that one last blue-chip player that would guarantee your team the Lombardi Trophy for years to come.

I don’t know who the Vikings will end up drafting over the next three days, but there are some positional needs that pretty much demand to be attended to — either in the draft itself or in the free agent market that will heat up again once the draft is finished. Here are what I think are the Vikings’ most urgent needs:

  1. Middle linebacker. With the departure of Jasper Brinkley in free agency, the only middle linebacker on the roster right now is Audie Cole. Cole played well in very limited preseason action (recording back-to-back interceptions returned for touchdowns) and special teams work in the regular season. It’s not anticipated that he’d be ready to step in to a starting role this year. Arif Hasan at the Daily Norseman says the top linebackers who would fit the Vikings’ scheme are Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Arthur Brown, and Manti Te’o.
  2. Wide receiver. Last year’s receiving corps was one of the weakest in the NFL, and most of the receivers who saw extended playing time have left (Harvin traded to Seattle, Jenkins released and signed with New England, Aromashodu an untendered free agent). Signing Greg Jennings from the Packers is a major upgrade, but a deep-threat receiver is still needed. Arif’s choices would be DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, and Da’Rick Rogers
  3. Cornerback. This wasn’t an urgent need until the team unexpectedly cut Antoine Winfield to clear salary cap room to re-sign Phil Loadholt. Now, it means the Vikings should try to find a starting-calibre player early in the draft (or hope that first-year player Josh Robinson develops enough to step in to Winfield’s shoes). Arif suggests Dee Milliner, Desmond Trufant, Johnthan Banks, and Xavier Rhodes.
  4. Defensive tackle. Kevin Williams has been a great player for the Vikings, but he’s not what he was a few years back. Guion and Evans are both adequate at nose tackle, but as Tom Pelissero would put it, they’re just guys. (Technically the other half of the Williams Wall is rejoining the team, but Pat Williams is only going to be a Viking for one day so he can retire.) Arif’s preferred picks would be Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, and Johnathan Jenkins.
  5. Offensive guard. 2012 starters Brandon Fusco and Charlie Johnson remain with the team (although Johnson is in the final year of his contract), so this isn’t an urgent need now. This would be a luxury pick compared to the higher-priority needs listed above. Arif would pick Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, or Larry Warford.
  6. Defensive end. This is one of the undoubted strengths of the team. For this year, anyway: the top three ends (Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Everson Griffin) all have contracts that expire at the end of this season. It’s unlikely the team will re-sign all three, so drafting a potential replacement this year would be prudent. Arif says Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner, Ezekiel Ansah, Cornelius “Tank” Carradine, or Datone Jones would be the best choices for the Vikings.

Interpreting what NFL coaches and general managers say leading up to the draft

Filed under: Business, Football, Humour — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:02

It’s a time of the year when pretty much nothing coming out of the mouths of team officials can be taken at face value … GMs and coaches don’t want to tip their hands in advance of making their selections on draft day, so lots of misinformation is spread. For example, the Daily Norseman‘s Ted Glover goes through yesterday’s press conference by Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and tries to give us an interpretation of what was said (and not said):

Vikings GM Rick Spielman has become known for his amazing ability to fill up a notebook saying anything…unless one is willing to read between the lines.

Here at DN, I got drunk one night and started posting, I was tasked with deciphering what we’ve come to know as Rick Speak, and take his paragraphs of nothing, non- denials, and unequivocal statements that really are equivocal, and turn them into some useful information.

[. . .]

    Rick Says: I think this is going to be one of most intriguing drafts I’ve been associated with because of the depth of the draft.

What that means: There’s not a lot of top shelf talent, and GM’s across the league would cut their grandma’s achilles tendons if they could get a good deal. We’re moving up to get an impact player, because he’s got two draft picks and and they’re BURNIN’ A HOLE IN MAH POCKET WOOOOOOOOOO!

    Rick Says: And to be honest with you (Ed note: LOLWUT), where we’re picking at 23 and 25, we’re looking at all our needs, from the whole defensive side of the ball to needs on the offensive side of the ball, trying to distinguish what makes this potential receiver better than this corner, better than this linebacker, better than this defensive end, better than this defensive tackle.

What that means: None of our scouts agree on anyone, and that means no matter who we draft, a sizeable portion of our fanbase is going to be disappointed and call for my head on a platter. If we stay where we are many of you will IMMEDIATELY draw comparisons to 2005. But hey…new uniforms WOOO!

[. . .]

Rick also talked about a couple positions and position players, and how that might relate to the upcoming draft.

    Tom P says Rick says: Asked if Erin Henderson was strictly considered a weak-side linebacker at this point, Spielman said, “No, that’s flexible. That depends on what happens in the draft. If we go outside, Erin can slide inside or if we go inside Erin can play outside. That’s what is great about this linebacker thing. We have the flexibility to go either way.”

What that means: We’re so gooned at linebacker right now. There’s nothing great about not having a starting MLB on the roster, and we have to be so flexible because we’re currently gooned. Did I mention we’re gooned at the linebacker position right now?

Populist talk on taxes may please the voters (sometimes), but it won’t help the economy

Filed under: Cancon, Economics, Government, Politics — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:01

In Maclean’s, Stephen Gordon explains why the only kind of tax hikes that seem in any way “popular” are particularly bad if implemented:

Magical thinking might be smart politics, but it’s not very good economics. Here are the two most popular themes:

  1. Higher corporate income taxes. From a political marketing point of view, the appeal of increasing corporate income tax (CIT) rates is obvious: “Hey, I’m not a corporation, so it’s no skin off my nose.” But the economics of CIT rates are very dodgy indeed: higher CIT rates are the most costly way of generating revenue and are most harmful to economic growth. It also turns out that workers and consumers are the ones who ultimately bear the burden of higher CIT rates. (If you start taxing corporate profits, shareholders will eventually move their money to jurisdictions with more competitive rates, reducing the availability of investment capital. In the long-run, that results in lower output and weaker labour demand. More on that here.) But even if you were willing to pay these costs, higher CIT rates don’t generate much in the way of new revenues.
  2. Increased taxes on high earners. While there may be good reasons for wanting to use the personal income tax system to counter recent trends in the concentration of income, policymakers should be under no illusions about how much new revenue taxing the rich will bring in. There simply aren’t that many high earners to tax, and they have access to expert tax planning advice: there is overwhelming evidence showing that those with high incomes can and will respond to higher tax rates by reporting lower taxable income.

April 24, 2013

Tax day is approaching…

Filed under: Cancon, Government, Humour — Tags: — Nicholas @ 13:11

Copyright terms are almost certainly too long already

Filed under: Books, Business, Economics, Law, Media — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 11:59

At Techdirt, Mike Masnick makes the case for reducing the swollen length of time current copyrights are protected:

We’ve pointed a few times in the past to a chart from William Patry’s book, looking at how frequently copyright was renewed at the 28 year mark back when copyright (a) required registration and (b) required a “renewal” at 28 years to keep it another 28 years. The data is somewhat amazing:

Copyright renewal rates 1958-59

As you can see, very few works are renewed after 28 years. Only movies, at 74% are over the 50% mark. Only 35% of music and only 7% of books tells quite a story. It makes it quite clear that even the copyright holders see almost no value in their copyrights after a short period of time. It appears that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is coming to the same conclusion from a different angle. As Matthew Yglesias notes, as part of its effort to recalibrate how it calculates GDP, the BEA is considering money spent on the creation of content an “investment” in a capital good, which needs to be depreciated over the time period in which it is valuable. Frankly, I’m not convinced this is the smartest way to account for money spent on the creation of content, but either way, the BEA’s analysis provides some insight into the standard “economic life” of various pieces of content, which match up with the chart above in many ways.

More on the currency choices facing an independent Scotland

Filed under: Britain, Economics, Europe — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 10:49

John Kay works through the short list of options about money that a newly independent Scotland would need to decide about:

Speculation about Scotland’s currency future would begin on the day Scotland voted for independence — or the day on which a poll showed that this result was likely. Scotland would have three main options — the euro, the pound sterling, or its own distinct money.

The euro is the official currency of the EU, and Scotland would in principle be committed to its adoption. But there would be little enthusiasm for that course in either Edinburgh or Brussels, and Scotland — like the UK — would not meet the criteria on debt and deficits for joining the euro. A vague Scottish aspiration to join the single currency at some distant date would probably satisfy everyone.

The sensible outcome would be continued currency union with England — or with the entity that, in deference to Wales and Northern Ireland, participants in the Scottish debate call rUK — rest of UK. Scotland might ask for — and get — a Scottish economist on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (not a representative of Scotland — the rules of the committee preclude representative roles). But that would be the extent of Scottish influence on monetary policy.

[. . .]

If I represented the Scottish government in the extensive negotiations required by the creation of an independent state, I would try to secure a monetary union with England, and expect to fail. Given experience in the eurozone, today’s conventional wisdom is that monetary union is feasible only as part of a move towards eventual fiscal union. But desire to break up fiscal union was always a major — perhaps the principal — motive for independence in the first place.

Scotland could continue to use the pound unilaterally, whether the Bank of England liked it or not — as Ecuador uses the dollar and Montenegro the euro. But this is not really an attractive course, and the only countries that have adopted it are those — such as Ecuador and Montenegro — whose monetary histories are so dire that they prefer to entrust their policies to foreigners.

A call to abolish the draft … the NFL draft, that is

Filed under: Business, Football, Law, Media — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 00:02

S.M Oliva calls for the abolition of the NFL’s annual offseason TV mega-event in Reason:

The sports draft is an anomaly of the American labor market. In most industries new hires are free to seek employment wherever there’s an opening. Even promising high school athletes may accept a scholarship offer from any college. But the NFL shield has stood resolutely against labor freedom since 1935 when Bert Bell, then the struggling owner of the last-place Philadelphia Eagles, convinced the rest of the nine-team league that poorly performing clubs should be rewarded with first choice of promising college talent. Under this new system, a “drafted” player could only negotiate a contract with a single team.

[. . .]

Regardless of how players come into the league, they are all subject to a salary cap that fixes total compensation as a percentage of football-related revenues. The present collective bargaining agreement further constrains rookie salaries, and roster limits prevent a team from simply stockpiling players. All the draft does is increase the likelihood that the most promising new talent — the players taken at the top of the first round — will go to teams with a demonstrated history of mismanagement.

This should concern the league as it faces a rising tide of concussion-related lawsuits brought by former players. While the NFL tinkers with playing rules in an effort to make the game “safer,” there’s been no effort to question the role of the draft system in promoting unsafe working conditions. Let’s say Player X is a highly touted quarterback prospect drafted by Team A. What if Team A has a poor offensive line and a coach prone to recklessness with his quarterbacks? Player X can’t turn around and negotiate with Team B, which offers a better line and a coach with a stronger record of developing young quarterbacks. Player X is stuck with Team A, and if that means he’s out of football after four years, a record number of sacks and a half-dozen concussions, then so be it.

« Newer Posts — Older Posts »

Powered by WordPress