Military Aviation History
Published on 31 Aug 2017Survivor Bias was a thing in World War 2. Let’s learn what happened.
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M. Mangel, F. J. Samaniego, Abraham Wald’s Work on Aircraft SurvivabilityAbraham Wald, A Reprint of “A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors”
From the comments:
Military Aviation History
2 years ago (edited)
Hey all, I hope that you like this video. Small correction from my side at 05:00 – It was reprinted in 1980 not 1918. I misspoke. Obviously.This video was actually planned for the end of September but since I had the script already, I decided to publish it now. As mentioned to my Patreons some days ago, I have a few unexpected home visists to make. The first set was last week and after returning two days ago, I flew off to yesterday for another week abroad. As such it made sense to get such a familiar topic out now since otherwise, there would be nothing.
It should be mentioned that I did not find the “original” study Wald responded to. Either it got lost, or it was never published. Perhaps Wald saw them work on it, saw the errors and published his paper leading the other group to abandon their project. However, there is also a slight chance that over the years parts of the story were exaggerated. Wald certainly published his papers (you’ll easily find it on the internet) and was given the credit for helping US designers — but what of that inital research group? What were their conclusions, their recommendations beyond what is usually linked to Wald? Without their study, no one seems to know.
