Quotulatiousness

September 6, 2011

Is the freelancing sector the “new industrial revolution”?

Filed under: Economics, Liberty, USA — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 09:03

Sara Horowitz, founder of Freelancers Union, presents an anecdote-heavy but data-poor view of the surge in freelancing as “the Industrial Revolution of our time”:

It’s been called the Gig Economy, Freelance Nation, the Rise of the Creative Class, and the e-conomy, with the “e” standing for electronic, entrepreneurial, or perhaps eclectic. Everywhere we look, we can see the U.S. workforce undergoing a massive change. No longer do we work at the same company for 25 years, waiting for the gold watch, expecting the benefits and security that come with full-time employment. We’re no longer simply lawyers, or photographers, or writers. Instead, we’re part-time lawyers-cum-amateur photographers who write on the side.

Today, careers consist of piecing together various types of work, juggling multiple clients, learning to be marketing and accounting experts, and creating offices in bedrooms/coffee shops/coworking spaces. Independent workers abound. We call them freelancers, contractors, sole proprietors, consultants, temps, and the self-employed.

And, perhaps most surprisingly, many of them love it.

I’m in this category myself, as a self-employed technical writer. I buy my own tools, pay my own taxes (reminder to self: next tax installment due on the 15th), and — within reason — set my own working hours. Of course, my clients have a lot to say about when my working hours tend to be, so it’s more an extra degree of flexibility than it is total freedom. But it works well for me.

September 5, 2011

Vikings sign players to practice squad

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:10

The team roster has solidified a bit from the initial release yesterday, as they claimed linebacker Xavier Adibi off the waiver wire from Houston, and cut tight end Allen Reisner to make a roster spot for him.

Position Starter(s) Backups Practice Squad Injured Reserve
QB (3) McNabb Ponder, Webb    
WR (5) Berrian, Harvin, Jenkins Camarillo, Aromashodu Arceneaux, S. Burton  
RB (3) Peterson Gerhart, Booker King  
FB (0)     Asiata, D’Imperio  
TE (3) Shiancoe, Rudolph Kleinsasser, Reisner1 Reisner  
OL (10) Loadholt (RT), Hutchinson (LG), Sullivan (C), Herrera (RG), C. Johnson (LT) Cooper, Love, Fusco, Brown, Olsen DeGeare Kooistra
DL (9/10) Robison (LE), Williams (UT)2, Ayodele (NT), J. Allen (RE) Griffen, Ballard, Awasom, Guion, Reed, Evans McKinley  
LB (6) Greenway (S), E.J. Henderson (M), E. Henderson (W) Onatolu, Dean, Adibi    
CB (6) Winfield, Griffin C. Cook, Sherels, A. Allen, B. Burton    
S (5) Abdullah, Sanford T. Johnson, Frampton, Raymond   Brinkley
K (1) Longwell      
P (1) Kluwe      
LS (1) Loeffler      
KR Harvin* Booker*    
PR Sherels* Camarillo*    

Players who have been waived are marked like this, and newly signed players are marked like this.

Notes:

1. Allen Reisner was cut to make room for signing linebacker Xavier Adibi. The team hoped to sign him to the practice squad if he cleared waivers on Monday night.

2. Kevin Williams has been suspended for the first two games of the season, and fined another two game cheques. He won’t count against the roster limit until the third game.

Update, 6 September: The team announced that Christian Ponder will be the backup quarterback (Joe Webb will run the scout team), Jamarca Sanford will be the starting safety over Tyrell Johnson, and Allen Reisner cleared waivers and has been signed to the practice squad.

“Listening to some foodie types, you would think that anything that has been remotely industrially processed was as deadly as nerve poison.”

Filed under: Food, Health, Media — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:48

Rob Lyons calls out hypocritical attitudes toward processed food:

Listening to some foodie types, you would think that anything that has been remotely industrially processed was as deadly as nerve poison. Yet even food snobs eat plenty of processed food. It’s just the right kind of processed food.

A great illustration of the fact that there is nothing wrong, per se, with processed food is a little bit of self-experimentation by Mark Haub, a professor of human nutrition at Kansas State University. Last year for 10 weeks, Haub ate a Twinkie bar every three hours instead of a meal, adding variety to his diet with Doritos, Oreos and sugary cereals. He kept up some semblance of good nutrition by taking multivitamins and throwing in a few vegetables, too.

But most importantly, Haub stuck to eating no more than 1,800 calories per day — well below the 2,500 calories per day usually suggested for men. The result was that Haub lost 27 pounds. This ‘convenience store diet’ may not have been ideal, but in many respects his health appeared to be better. His cholesterol test results suggested he was in better condition than before, despite this diet of ‘junk’.

How the wreck of a ship-of-the-line led to the Mary Rose

Filed under: Britain, History — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:41

The bottom of the Solent must be carpeted with shipwrecks:

According to naval historian Dr John Bevan, the largely forgotten flagship, which sank in the Solent at Spithead in August 1782, helped divers to locate the wreckage of the Mary Rose in the 1830s — a full 150 years before the stricken vessel was raised from the seabed.

More than 900 people died when the Royal George sank, including 300 women and 60 children who were visiting the ship which was due to head for Gibraltar with HMS Victory.

It was the biggest loss of life in British waters.

The 100-gun battleship had been heeled on to its side for repairs to be carried out on its sea cock — a valve on the hull — when it began to take in water though its open gun ports. It capsized and sank.

“For weeks after the tragedy, bodies washed ashore at Southsea, Gosport and Ryde and were buried in mass graves along the seafront,” said Royal Marines Museum historian Stuart Haven.

The Royal George remained in shallow water just beyond the entrance to Portsmouth harbour for many years, “her masts standing above the water a macabre reminder of the tragedy,” Mr Haven said.

Some 50 years later the pioneering divers Charles and John Deane tried to recover the battleship, which had become a hazard to other vessels.

Between 1834-36 the brothers undertook a series of dives.

False ideas about investment risk

Filed under: Economics — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 10:25

Dan Ariely points out that most people have no idea at all about some of the key questions on investment risks:

To this point, we’ve run a number of experiments. In one study, we asked people the same question that financial advisors ask: How much of your final salary will you need in retirement? The common answer was 75 percent. But when we asked how they came up with this figure, the most common refrain turned out to be that that’s what they thought they should answer. And when we probed further and asked where they got this advice, we found that most people heard this from the financial industry. Sort of like two months salary for an engagement ring and one-third of your income for housing, 75 percent was the rule of thumb that they had heard from financial advisors. You see the circularity and the inanity: Financial advisors are asking a question that their customers rely on them for the answer. So what’s the point of the question?!

In our study, we then took a different approach and instead asked people: How do you want to live in retirement? Where do you want to live? What activities you want to engage in? And similar questions geared to assess the quality of life that people expected in retirement. We then took these answers and itemized them, pricing out their retirement based on the things that people said they’d want to do and have in their retirement. Using these calculations, we found that these people (who told us that they will need 75% of their salary) would actually need 135 percent of their final income to live in the way that they want to in retirement. If you think about it, this should not be very surprising: If you add 8 hours (or more) of free time to someone’s day, they will probably not want to spend this extra time by going for long walks on the beach and watching TV — instead they may want to engage in activities that cost money.

You can see why I’m confused about the one-percent-of-assets-under-management business model: Why pay someone to create a portfolio that’s 60 percent too low in its estimation?

And 60% is if you get the risk calculation right. But it turns out the second question is equally problematic. To show this, we also asked people to tell us how much risk they were willing to take with their money, on a ten-point scale. For some people we gave a scale that ranges from 100% in cash on the low end of the risk scale and 85% in stocks and 15% in bonds on the high end of the risk scale. For other people we gave a scale that ranges from 100% in bonds on the low end of the risk scale and buying only derivatives on the high end of the risk scale. And what did we find? People basically looked at the scale and said to themselves “I am a slightly above the mean risk-taker, so let me mark the scale at 6 or 7.” Or they said to themselves “I am a slightly below the mean risk-taker, so let me mark the scale at 4 or 5.” In essence, people have no idea what their risk attitude is, and if they are given different types of scales they end up reporting their risk attitude to be very different.

September 4, 2011

James Delingpole forced to offer an apology

Filed under: Britain, Environment — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:45

Yes, it’s true. Delingpole made an error in a recent column and has to make a full apology for the error:

It has been brought to my attention that this blog owes Sir Reginald Sheffield, Bt. an apology. In a recent column entitled Green Jobs? Wot Green Jobs? (Pt 242), I carelessly suggested that Sir Reg — beloved dad of the famous environmentalist “Sam Cam”; distinguished father-in-law of the Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, no less — is making nearly £1000 a week from the wind turbines on his estates.

The correct figure is, of course, nearly £1000 a day.

In other words, Sir Reginald is making the equivalent of roughly 1000 looted widescreen plasma TV screens every year from the eight 400 foot wind turbines now enhancing the view for miles around on his 3,000 acre Normanby Hall estate, near Scunthorpe.

There will be those who suggest that my mistake is a resigning matter. I do share their concern. However it is my view that if a journalist is going to resign on a point of principle these days, it has to be over something immeasurably trivial, rather than over something merely quite trivial. What I do nevertheless agree is that I owe Sir Reginald Sheffield, Bt, an apology.

A big apology.

Scottish Conservative party too tainted to survive, claims leadership candidate

Filed under: Britain, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 11:10

Scotland has not been kind to the Conservative party for the last few decades, and a candidate for the leadership thinks the solution is to destroy the party in order to save it:

The Scottish Tory party could be scrapped and replaced by a new centre-right party, under radical reform proposals drafted by the favourite to become its next leader.

Murdo Fraser, deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, will launch his campaign to head the party on Monday by claiming that its only hope to attract greater popular support would be to split off from the UK party led by David Cameron.

Fraser, a former chairman of the Scottish Young Conservatives, will argue that creating a new Scottish centre-right, tax-cutting party would allow it to build up a fresh political mandate and attract voters disenchanted by the current party, which has failed to recover significantly from 25 years of decline.

After losing every Scottish seat at the 1997 Westminster election, the party now has only one MP at Westminster, David Mundell, the Scotland Office minister. It won just 15 out of 129 seats for the Scottish parliament at the last Holyrood elections and has failed to benefit from the collapse in Liberal Democrat support in Scotland.

UK “will lose 2 to 3 per cent GDP a year for around 20 years” on renewable energy subsidies

A report in The Register says that the subsidies for green renewable energy will be a big net drain on the national economy:

The UK’s headlong rush into renewable energy — one ignored by the rest of the world — will hit British jobs and then general incomes, an economic study finds.

The report, The Myth of Green Jobs by economist Professor Gordon Hughes of Edinburgh University, examines the long-term impacts of subsidising expensive “green” renewable energy projects. It says that if the UK continues to do so, it will lose 2 to 3 per cent GDP a year for around 20 years. If reducing CO2 emissions is your goal, says Hughes, your economy really can’t afford renewable energy.

[. . .]

“All forms of green energy tend to be substantially more expensive than conventional energy, so there is a trade-off between higher costs and lower emissions,” writes Hughes. “This trade-off is not specific to green energy, since there are many ways of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Hence, the starting point of any assessment of such programmes should be the total cost per tonne of carbon dioxide saved — or its equivalent — which will be incurred by relying upon different measures or policies to reduce emissions.”

California is apparently not in deep enough trouble

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Economics, Government, USA — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:44

Otherwise, there’s no explanation for yet another extension of the state’s regulatory reach into the lives of everyday citizens. The most recent example is a bill that (at least on first look) appears to mandate workers’ compensation coverage, detailed pay slips (with all deductions clearly indicated), and paid vacation time for babysitters. Coyote Blog would like to see even more of this kind of thing:

I know this is exactly the kind of thing you would expect me to oppose, but I have decided this is exactly the kind of thing California needs. I am tired of average citizens passing crazy requirements on business without any concept of the costs and injustices they are proposing, and then scratch their head later wonder why job creation is stagnant.
I want to propose that California do MORE in this same vein. Here are some suggestions:

  • Every household will have to register for a license to conduct any type of commerce, a license to occupy their house, and a license to hire any employees. Homeowner will as a minimum have to register to withhold income taxes, pay social security taxes, pay unemployment insurance, pay disability insurance, and pay workers comp insurance.
  • Households should have to file a 1099 for every payment they make to contractors
  • All requirements of Obamacare must be followed for any household labor, including payment of penalties for even part-time labor for which the homeowner does not provide medical insurance
  • No alcohol may be purchased by any individual without first applying for and receiving a state liquor license
  • No cigarettes may be purchased by any individual without first applying for and receiving a state cigarette license
  • No over the counter drugs may be purchased by any individual without first applying for and receiving a state over the counter drug license

And the list goes on. But they’re not just being randomly generated: they’re all things that ordinary businesses in California already have to do.

Vikings cut down to 53-man roster

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 00:06

All NFL teams had to reduce their rosters to 53 players by 5:00 Saturday evening, but can’t sign players to their practice squads for a period afterward — as some teams are forced to cut quality players, the “final” roster is subject to a certain amount of churning. As a result the following summary is still only “mostly” final.

,

Position Starter(s) Backups Practice Squad Injured Reserve
QB (3) McNabb Ponder, Webb    
WR (5) Berrian, Harvin, Jenkins Camarillo (?), J. Johnson, Aromashodu Arceneaux, Iglesias, S. Burton  
RB (3) Peterson Gerhart, Booker Davis, Robinson  
FB (0) D’Imperio (?)   Asiata  
TE (4) Shiancoe, Rudolph Kleinsasser, Dugan, Reisner1    
OL (10) Loadholt (RT), Hutchinson (LG), Sullivan (C), Herrera (RG), C. Johnson (LT) DeGeare, R. Cook, Cooper, Love, Fusco2, Brown2, Olsen3    
DL (9/10) Robison (LE), Williams (UT)4, Ayodele (NT), J. Allen (RE) Griffen, Ballard, Awasom, Guion, Reed, Evans5    
LB (5) Greenway (S), E.J. Henderson (M), E. Henderson (W) Farwell, Onatolu, Dean Homan  
CB (6) Winfield, Griffin C. Cook, Sherels, A. Allen (?), Carter, B. Burton6 Parks, Torrence  
S (5) T. Johnson, Abdullah Sanford, Frampton, Raymond7   Brinkley8
K (1) Longwell      
P (1) Kluwe      
LS (1) Loeffler      
KR J. Johnson* Sherels*      
PR Booker*      

Players who have been waived are marked like this, while players who I didn’t predict making the team’s roster are marked in green. I’d marked Ryan D’Imperio and Asher Allen with question marks in my original post, as I wasn’t sure either one of them would make the team and didn’t know if they could be signed to the practice squad.

Notes:

1. I’d assumed that Reisner would be cut, but projected to signing on the practice squad. Cutting Dugan created a slot for him.

2. I listed aboth Brown and Fusco as practice squad candidates. Rather surprised to see Fusco made the team, based on the reporting about him.

3. Seth Olsen wasn’t even on my list of practice squad candidates. He must have been doing good work away from the reporters, as I’d barely heard his name until now.

4. Kevin Williams has been suspended for the first two games of the season, and fined another two game cheques. He won’t count against the roster limit until the third game.

5. Fred Evans was a veteran I didn’t expect to see back on the full roster. I was clearly mistaken.

6. I’d originally predicted that CB Brandon Burton would be signed to the practice squad, but Jeremy Fowler noted that he’d made the regular roster.

7. Mistral Raymond made enough moves to join the regular season roster (I projected him as a practice squad player).

8. Jasper Brinkley moved to Injured Reserve: his season is over, and he won’t count against the roster.

September 3, 2011

QotD: The American judicial system

Filed under: Law, Liberty, Media, Quotations — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 11:26

Whatever one thinks about Conrad Black’s guilt or innocence, there is no doubt that he has proven his claim that America’s legal deck is stacked in prosecutors’ favour: Even before his conviction, he had to endure a genuinely Kafkaesque ordeal of assets being frozen and seized by the FBI, email and phone lines hacked, backroom deals with sleazy witnesses (David Radler, please call your office), and outrageous leveraging of blunderbuss statutes to generate dozens of charges on the basis of tangential procedural indiscretions. The very institution meant to protect innocent people from this machinery of state — the private legal sector — is an old-boys’ club whose members often seem just as concerned with seven-figure paydays as with keeping clients out of jail. The fact that Mr. Black happens to be a famous person makes the claims more credible because, as the author writes, if all this could happen to Conrad Black, it “could happen to anyone, and often does.”

Jonathan Kay, “Conrad Black and his new book: A man in full pay-back mode”, National Post, 2011-09-03

US troops allegedly handcuffed and executed children in 2006

Filed under: Middle East, Military, USA — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 11:05

Wikileaks may have been sitting on a particularly disturbing report:

A U.S. diplomatic cable made public by WikiLeaks suggests that U.S. troops executed at least 10 Iraqi civilians, including a woman in her 70s and a 5-month-old infant, then called in an airstrike to destroy the evidence, during a controversial 2006 incident in the central Iraqi town of Ishaqi.

The unclassified cable, which was posted on WikiLeaks’ website last week, contained questions from a United Nations investigator about the incident, which had angered local Iraqi officials, who demanded some kind of action from their government. U.S. officials denied at the time that anything inappropriate had occurred.

But Philip Alston, the UN’s special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, said in a communication to American officials dated 12 days after the March 15, 2006, incident that autopsies performed in the Iraqi city of Tikrit showed that all the dead had been handcuffed and shot in the head. Among the dead were four women and five children. The children were all 5 years old or younger.

Claims of American troops committing atrocities were very common, but few of them appear to have been anything other than Al Qaeda propaganda exercises. This may well be another case of this, but the initial investigation implied otherwise:

The original incident report was signed by an Iraqi police colonel and made even more noteworthy because U.S.-trained Iraqi police, including Brig. Gen. Issa al Juboori, who led the coordination centre, were willing to speak about the investigation on the record even though it was critical of American forces.

Throughout the early investigation, U.S. military spokesmen said that an Al Qaeda in Iraq suspect had been seized from a first-floor room after a fierce fight that had left the house he was hiding in a pile of rubble.

But the diplomatic cable provides a different sequence of events and lends credence to townspeople’s claims that American forces destroyed the house after its residents had been shot.

In praise of air conditioning

Filed under: Randomness, Technology, Wine — Nicholas @ 10:56

File this one under “first world problems”. Air conditioning is something that I’ve tended to take for granted . . . until this week, when our air conditioner failed. I should be grateful that the unit managed to last until nearly the end of summer before giving up the ghost, but it’s hard to feel grateful when even sitting still produces profuse sweating.

Even going to the basement isn’t much of a relief. My miniscule wine cellar is in the corner of the basement, and I monitor the temperature there. It’s usually in the range of 17-19 degrees. Yesterday it was 24. <sarc>That’ll help age those wines nicely</sarc>.

Update: Oh, joy: “Today’s weather: A high of 30 C feeling more like 40 C, the humidex advisory continuing. A mix of sun and cloud with scattered showers.”

Update, the second: Even better: “Heat alert issued for Toronto, public encouraged to stay cool, drink lots of fluids and monitor those at risk for heat-related illness.”

Surge in “escort” ads in cities hosting political conventions

Filed under: Economics, Media, Politics, USA — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:46

It should be no surprise that the cities hosting the Democratic or Republican party conventions have a brief spike of activity in certain businesses:

The sex workers of Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, can get ready for a spike in business at the end of next summer: the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, respectively, are coming to town. In the last electoral cycle, the political jamborees were held in Denver and Minneapolis — and there seems to have been a coincidental surge in the local market for sex.

The economists Scott Cunningham and Todd Kendall discovered this by examining advertisements in the “adult services” section on Craigslist, the online ad service. (Craigslist has since closed down this section.)

Using postings in Seattle and Philadelphia as a control group — these cities did not have almost 50,000 visitors descending on them for a few days — the economists estimated that advertisements selling sexual services increased by 29-44 per cent in Minneapolis during the Republican visit and 47-77 per cent in Denver when the Democrats arrived. I’m not going to make jokes about oversexed politicians, largely because the majority of visitors appear to have been journalists.

An even more amusing letter was posted to The Economist on the same general topic:

SIR – You note that call girls are being drawn from far and wide to service America’s political conventions (“On the trail”, July 3rd). While standing in line to register for an American Economic Association annual meeting some years ago, I overheard someone remark that the prostitutes of New Orleans look forward to the arrival of economists in town. While glancing at my colleagues in their ill-fitting suits and dragging cardboard suitcases, I heard the following clarification: “It’s their opportunity to take a week off.”
Robin Watson
Berlin

Do celebrities get better treatment from the police?

Filed under: Football, Law, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:37

It was interesting to read in this story about the wife of former Viking tight end Joe Senser, that the police waited for a warrant before searching the vehicle, even though the family had given permission:

Phanthavong, 38, was killed as he was putting gas in his car after it ran out of fuel on the ramp leading from westbound Interstate 94 to Riverside Avenue about 11 p.m. He was head cook at True Thai, a restaurant on nearby Franklin Avenue.

He was hit directly by Senser’s vehicle and propelled into the air, Schwebel said. Blood was found on the parts of the Mercedes left at the scene, according to a search warrant.

Investigators received a call at 10:30 p.m. on Aug. 24 from Nelson indicating he was calling on behalf of the registered owner of the suspected vehicle and the owner’s family.

At their Edina home, the Sensers gave investigators the keys to their 2009 Mercedes ML350 and it was towed to the Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office crime lab.

The family gave investigators permission to search the vehicle, but authorities waited until they obtained a search warrant, Nelson said.

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