Quotulatiousness

December 1, 2011

Grim situation for North Korean civilians gets grimmer

Filed under: Asia, Media, Military — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:58

Strategy Page reports that the North Korean government is trying to distract the population from a declining economy with talk of an invasion from South Korea:

North Korean media is taking an ominous turn. For much of the year, the big story was that everything would change in 2012, with new housing and more of everything. That failed, as it is obvious to all that the 2012 promises are not going to be fulfilled. The new pitch urges North Koreana to eat less and save food. That military is being praised, as is the artillery attack on South Korea (Yeonpyeong Island) a year ago.

The most visible aspects of the 2012 promises (and the centennial of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung) are many new construction projects in the capital. This effort is not only way behind schedule, but is putting up poorly built structures and killing hundreds of students and others who have been conscripted as unskilled labor. The government puts a positive spin on the construction, but darker views get around, despite government efforts to control the news.

While North Koreans are warned about hunger, the government is silent on why they are going to be cold. The government has greatly increased coal exports to China, meaning prices have doubled in some parts of North Korea. The government denies that exports are up sharply, but won’t say anything about the rising prices. Meanwhile, illegal tree cutting is increasingly common as people seek fuel with which to survive the cold weather. Satellite photos show the sharp difference between forestation in the north and south. Foreign aid groups believe that at least three million North Koreans are in danger of starvation. Many more North Koreans are eating less. But many North Koreans are living better. The market economy, but the legal markets and the black market, increasingly thrive.

August 7, 2011

Trawling a virtual economy to support a non-viable “real” economy

Filed under: Asia, Economics, Gaming, Technology — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 14:47

Give North Korea some credit for finding a viable source of revenue:

What’s a dictator to do when his third-world economy is wheezing along on its last legs? Hack some video games, of course! According to a report in the New York Times, North Korea’s Kim Jong-il unleashed an army of young computer crackers on popular South Korean online gaming portals to find ways to make quick cash.

South Korean authorities claim that a squad of approximately 30 hackers operated from a base in China and were given the mission of breaching online gaming servers (including those of the immensely popular Lineage) to set up bot factories and automated farming collectives. The digital booty was then sold to gamers for a reported $6 million over two years.

March 24, 2011

China’s “sexy spies” score another intelligence goal

Filed under: China, Japan, Military, Technology — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 09:52

Strategy Page says that the Chinese are “probably the most enthusiastic, and successful, users of this technique these days”:

China is widely known to use sex to obtain secrets from foreigners, inside and outside of China. Four years ago, Japan uncovered a widespread Chinese effort to use sex to steal military technology. Attractive Chinese female intelligence agents in Japan were marrying members of the Japanese armed forces, and then using that access to obtain military secrets. The situation was complicated by the military attempts to keep these “embarrassing incidents” secret. The government was particularly anxious to keep the Americans in the dark about all this, since the Chinese apparently got their hands on Aegis anti-aircraft system technology via their sexy spies.

Actually, most of the Chinese agents don’t have to marry Japanese troops. Just putting out usually does the trick. In Japan, the military doesn’t get much respect, and many of the bases are in backwaters. So the troops are pretty lonely. It’s not unusual for Chinese women to be in the country, as many come, legally or illegally, looking for jobs. The set-up is perfect for using the old “honey pot” (sexual entrapment) routine to extract military secrets.

The military geeks are the most sought after, as these guys have access to the most valuable military secrets. Geeks tend to be least experienced with women, and most vulnerable to a clever, and shapely, Chinese spy. Military commanders are not sure if they have the problem under control, but now that the situation is out in the open, there will be more efforts to tighten up security. As the Japanese expected, the Americans were not amused. And the Chinese honey pot scandal was apparently one reason for refusing to sell F-22s to Japan. To make matters worse, part of the Japanese cover-up involved prosecuting the Chinese spies on immigration, not espionage, charges.

September 1, 2010

T.R. Fehrenbach’s This Kind of War

Filed under: Asia, Books, History, Military, USA — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:01

Austin Bay recommends a book first published in 1963 as still being the best single-volume history of the Korean War (and I agree):

June 25 marked the 60th anniversary of North Korea’s premeditated attack on South Korea. The attack, which scattered South Korea’s weak and disorganized defense forces, began a vicious two and a half months of combat. The North Koreans would smash the ill-starred U.S. 24th Division’s Task Force Smith, then shove remnant South Korean troops and U.S. reinforcements into the Pusan Perimeter, at the southern tip of the peninsula.

In the weeks since June 25, I’ve re-read T.R. Fehrenbach’s “This Kind of War,” still the premier Korean War history. (Clay Blair’s “The Forgotten War” is also an excellent book.) Published in 1963 and reissued in 2000, “This Kind of War” is lyric history, delivering analysis in elegant, honest prose. Fehrenbach is also a decorated Korean War veteran, a man in touch with the emotions as well as the facts.

“This kind of war,” Fehrenbach writes, “is dirty business first to last.” Fehrenbach’s commentary on those first battles of July and August 1950 depicts the confusion of initial defeat and retreat, as well as the courage and intellect required to stem the onslaught. His chapter on the Inchon landing of September 1950 — the American amphibious counter-stroke — is incisive. Its 60th anniversary is two weeks away.

I think I first saw This Kind of War recommended by Jim Dunnigan, many years ago, but the Korean War has never been a major historical interest of mine. When I did get around to reading the book, it certainly opened my eyes. As Bay points out, the work is still topical because the war has never officially ended (as the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan amply demonstrated).

May 21, 2010

“Courageous Channel” exercise cancelled in South Korea

Filed under: Asia, Military, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:07

Strategy Page reports that a regular exercise has been cancelled to avoid further raising tensions between North and South Korea:

In South Korea, the semi-annual American evacuation (for American civilians) exercise has been cancelled. This was because relations between North and South Korea are particularly tense. It was felt that this exercise, which involves setting up the 18 evacuation points and having 10,000 people actually go through some of the procedures involved during an evacuation, might make the unstable North Koreans do something rash. The tension is the result of North Korea torpedoing a South Korean warship two months ago, killing 46 sailors. The North Koreans officially denied they did it, although North Koreans have been congratulating each other about it, and the North Korean general in charge of such things was very publicly promoted for no particular reason. Recently, South Korea announced it was certain the ship was sunk by a North Korean torpedo. North Korea called that accusation an insult and threatened war.

Called Courageous Channel, the evacuation drill has been held twice every year (in the Spring and Fall) since 1996. That was when someone noticed that there a lot more U.S. citizens living in South Korea, particularly in and around the capital Seoul. This city contains a quarter of South Korea’s population, and is a primary target for any North Korean invasion. The city is within range over a thousand North Korean guns and rocket launchers. If there were an actual evacuation, some 140,000 American citizens (and some non-citizen dependents) would be moved south.

The report on the sinking of ROKS Cheonan was issued earlier this week.

May 20, 2010

Torpedo damage and the sinking of the Cheonan

Filed under: Asia, Military — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 12:18

Geoffrey Forden posted information on likely causes of the sinking of the South Korean frigate Cheonan before the formal report was released:

One of the “mysteries” surrounding the sinking of the ROK’s warship, Cheonan, is that the explosion split the ship in half, a result our popular culture has trained us to forget. After all, World War II movies always show a torpedo strike in the same way: one or two white streaks quickly approaching the ship followed by a localized jet of water where the torpedo struck the hull. Sailors stream out of their bunks to jump over the side as the ship keels over, taking in water. Below the water line, jagged holes, punched by the explosive force of the warhead, let in sea water. Compartments quickly (or if dramatic effect is needed, slowly) fill with water, drowning all the bit players, uh, sailors trapped below.

These movies have influenced our expectations for the damage caused by modern torpedoes even though there are much more efficient ways for a torpedo to destroy a surface ship. [. . .]

The second major effect damaging the hull, and probably the one that caused the vessel to break in half, was a jet of water blasting its way through the ship. This jet was formed as the gas bubble created by the initial explosion collapsed upon reaching the ship’s hull.

This is the way modern torpedoes sink ships. Everything about the Cheonan’s sinking is consistent with either a torpedo or submerged mine blowing up beneath the ship’s keel.

Fascinating though this is, the official report (as filtered through what was made available to international media) discounted this mechanism:

South Korean scientists at the Sound Engineering Research Lab of Soongsil University have performed an analysis of the acoustic signals (the media report mistakenly calls them seismic waves) associated with the sinking of the Cheonan. It would be very nice to see their actual analysis — and the data would be even cooler — but it appears on the face of it to be a very interesting result. Their main conclusion, again based solely on the media report of their findings, seems to be that the Cheonan was actually struck by a heavy torpedo. (The say the most likely candidate is the Chinese Yu-3 heavy torpedo with a 205 kg high explosive warhead.) According the article, the South Korean scientists believe the torpedo struck the hull of the Cheonan but since the explosive is significantly aft of the torpedo’s bow, the center of the explosion was a little over 2 meters away. They rule out the “kill mechanism” being a bubble jet.

Interestingly, a summary in New Scientist (which is where I found the link above), seems to have been written before the updated information was added to the original post, as it attributes the sinking to the “deadly bubble jet”.

February 5, 2010

China ramps up submarine activity

Filed under: China, Japan, Military — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 12:39

Strategy Page reports on increased activity around China’s maritime periphery:

Recently, the Taiwanese Navy detected an unidentified submarine outside one of its major naval bases. Ships and helicopters pursued the contact, but the suspected submarine left the area. A Chinese boat was suspected, mainly because for the last decade, Chinese subs have increasingly been showing up close to Japan and South Korea as well.

[. . .]

Chinese Song class diesel electric and Han class nuclear powered boats have been detected and tracked with increasing frequency over the last few years. In that time, one of each of these was spotted stalking the American carrier USS George Washington, as it headed to South Korea for a visit.

China is rapidly acquiring advanced submarine building capabilities, and providing money (for fuel and spare parts) to send its subs to sea more often. Moreover, new classes of boats are constantly appearing. The new Type 39A, or Yuan class, looks just like the Russian Kilo class. In the late 1990s, the Chinese began ordering Russian Kilo class subs, then one of the latest diesel-electric design available. Russia was selling new Kilos for about $200 million each, which is about half the price other Western nations sell similar boats for. The Kilos weigh 2,300 tons (surface displacement), have six torpedo tubes and a crew of 57. They are quiet, and can travel about 700 kilometers under water at a quiet speed of about five kilometers an hour. Kilos carry 18 torpedoes or SS-N-27 anti-ship missiles (with a range of 300 kilometers and launched underwater from the torpedo tubes.) The combination of quietness and cruise missiles makes Kilo very dangerous to American carriers. North Korea and Iran have also bought Kilos.

November 10, 2009

Korean War flare-up at sea

Filed under: Asia, Military — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:25

The technically still-at-war Korean navies had a brief sea battle yesterday:

Warships from North and South Korea exchanged fire in disputed waters off the western coast of the Korean peninsula on Tuesday, leaving one North Korean vessel engulfed in flames, South Korean officials said.

The two Koreas accused each other of violating their territorial waters to provoke the two-minute skirmish. It was the first border fighting in seven years between the two countries, which remain technically at war.

[. . .]

North Korea appeared to have intended the clash to highlight its long-standing argument: the 195-53 Korean War never officially ended and the United States must negotiate a peace treaty with it if it wants the North to give up its nuclear weapons program, according to analysts in Seoul.

“Our high-speed patrol boat repelled the North Korean patrol boat,” the South Korean Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement following the skirmish. “We are fully prepared for further provocations from the North Korean military.”

South Korea said it suffered no casualties. Speaking in Parliament, Prime Minister Chung Un-chan said the North Korean boat limped back to its waters “enveloped in flames.”

October 19, 2009

North Korea conducting nerve gas tests?

Filed under: China, Military — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 07:44

Strategypage reports that there have been multiple incidents where nerve gas has been detected along the Chinese-North Korean border:

Anonymous Chinese military sources revealed that, a year ago, nerve gas detectors on the North Korean border went off. Further investigation revealed small amounts of Sarin nerve gas. There were no casualties, but the detectors went off again three months later. The Chinese don’t have nerve gas detectors deployed on the North Korean border, but they do periodically send special operations troops to the border to check security, and these units carry the detectors with them.

The North Koreans denied any responsibility, but it’s long been suspected that a chemical plant in the North Korean town of Sinuiju (on the Chinese border and the location of one of the major bridges, on the Yalu river, connecting the two countries) produced nerve gas, along with non-military products. Apparently there were problems in the plant, but there were no reports (not unusual in North Korea) of any nerve gas casualties in, or near, the plant.

September 23, 2009

Watch the collector value of M1 rifles drop now

Filed under: Asia, History, USA, Weapons — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 12:05

The South Korean government is planning to sell off its large holdings of M-1 rifles and carbines, according to this BBC News report:

South Korea has come up with a novel way to boost its defence budget — by selling a vast stockpile of old Korean-war rifles to collectors in the US.

The guns were originally sent to Korea as military aid, and some were also used during the war in Vietnam.

For more than five decades, they have been kept mothballed in warehouses.

Most of those on offer are M1 rifles — a weapon once described by US General George S Patton as “the greatest battle-implement ever devised”.

I recall when the Canadian Forces retired the FN C1 rifle . . . the government freaked at the thought of thousands of “assault rifles” being sold to civilians, so they changed the regulations to move the FN into a more restricted category (which most casual gun owners didn’t qualify for).

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