Quotulatiousness

October 23, 2013

Josh Freeman has a concussion – Christian Ponder likely to start against Green Bay

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 15:37

Can this season get any more convoluted? This afternoon, it was announced that Josh Freeman is suffering from concussion symptoms from Monday night’s game and probably won’t be able to play against the Packers on Sunday night. If he can’t go, Christian Ponder will be back at quarterback for the Vikings.

Reactions have been unkind:

October 15, 2013

Tune in Wednesday for another thrilling episode of “As the stomach turns”

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 07:19

It’s rather sad that a losing team tends to generate more interesting — and more amusing — media coverage than a team that’s currently winning. TV execs, however, may be wondering how they can possibly earn a profit when they’re contractually obligated to broadcast games like next Monday’s matchup between the 0-6 New York Giants and the 1-4 Minnesota Vikings. How do you get even hardcore football fans to waste several hours of their Monday evening watching teams that are this bad?

One minor point of interest is figuring out who will be starting at quarterback for the Vikings. Christian Ponder may have started his last game for the purple, and Matt Cassel didn’t do himself any favours in Sunday’s debacle against the Carolina Panthers. Newly signed QB Josh Freeman appears to be the odds-on favourite to start this game … after all, as Christopher Gates says, how bad can it be?

In one corner of this Triangle of Mediocrity … and I use that term because I’m feeling unusually generous today … we have the guy that began the season as Minnesota’s starting quarterback in Christian Ponder. In another corner, we have the guy that took over for Ponder when he was injured, Matt Cassel, who was last seen in a heap on the turf at the Metrodome. And in the final corner, we have the newly-acquired Josh Freeman, who has been on the team for a week and is probably already wondering exactly what the heck he’s gotten himself into.

[…]

That leaves us with Freeman, who this week could … and probably should … start an 11-game audition for the rest of the NFL to show that his rough start to the season was due to being trapped in Greg Schiano’s House of MRSA and Innuendo. There’s a concern that he doesn’t know the playbook yet, but considering that Bill Musgrave’s offense is slightly less diverse than the menu at your local Five Guys, I’m not sure how big a concern that actually is. Freeman’s next start will be his 60th as an NFL quarterback, and he’s got to be to the point of his career where he’s seen quite a bit from opposing defenses. Besides, what’s going to happen … this offense going to get worse?

Frankly, I think Freeman gets the start because, at this point, he’s the only option that makes sense. There’s a chance that the team could go with Cassel again, and basically no chance that they go with Ponder.

Tune in Wednesday for the thrilling conclusion of It Doesn’t Matter: We’re Screwed No Matter What Because None Of These Guys Can Play Corner.

Update: “How bad is the Vikings defence?” I pretend to hear you ask. They’re among the most generous in the NFL, giving up 418 yards per game (which is second-worst in the league) and allowing nearly 32 points per game (third-worst). Opposing teams convert third-down opportunities 49% of the time (as Chip Scoggins points out, that’s even worse than their putrid 2011 season where they allowed a 44% conversion rate). They’re third-worst in the league for getting off the field, staying on the field nearly 34 minutes per game — time of possession isn’t a total measurement of defensive ineptitude, but teams that don’t score quickly (or at all…) put extra pressure on the defenders.

October 8, 2013

Decoding Vikings management-speak

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:27

In the Star Tribune, Jim Souhan explains how to interpret classic management lines that have been deployed in profusion since the news of Josh Freeman’s signing became public:

Reporters and fans crave access. So when the Vikings sign a new quarterback, hold news conferences and allow interviews in their locker room, 40 reporters will show up to ask questions and fans will devour the resulting quotes.

Here’s the key to covering and following the NFL: Step 1: Ask the right questions. Step 2: Listen carefully to the answers. Step 3: Ignore just about everything you hear.

[…]

Frazier is as honest a man as you’ll find coaching an NFL team. He’s also a member of management, so he is much more interested in avoiding statements that could hurt him and his team than he is in being blunt.

There is no upside for Frazier in admitting the obvious: That Freeman was brought in to be the starter, that Cassel should start on Sunday, and that Ponder’s career with the Vikings is nearing an end.

[…]

With management, always judge actions, not words. The Vikings wouldn’t have signed Freeman if they believed in Ponder, or if they thought Cassel was a long-term solution. Freeman wouldn’t have signed with the Vikings, choosing them over a half-dozen other suitors, unless he was assured he will get a chance to start.

Ponder’s rib injury has enabled the Vikings’ attempts at vagueness and protected Ponder from the truth. If he were completely healthy, the Vikings would be forced to reveal more of their plans. The rib allowed the Vikings to start Cassel in London, in a move that might have saved their season. The rib allows them to pretend Ponder is relevant this week, and that there is a difficult decision to be made about the future of the quarterback position.

Update: At the Daily Norseman, Ted Glover uses all the technological tools at his disposal to provide a managementspeak-to-English translation of Leslie Frazier’s remarks:

Q: What’s the primary reason you signed Josh Freeman?

What Frazier said: We’re hoping that he’s another good football player that our personnel guys, along with myself, felt like could help our team. That was the primary reason. We’re always trying to find guys who you think can help your team win and we think he’s one of those guys.

What Frazier Meant: Well, Christian Ponder is about as popular as the bubonic plague, and we really feel that after he throws his first incompletion on Sunday, people would rather see Bane come out on the field and start blowing it up than watch Ponder anymore. And Matt Cassel is on borrowed time. He’s about three quarters of football away from remembering he’s Matt Cassel, and when that shit tsunami hits, we want to be able to throw a quarterback life jacket to the seven fans we will have left in the state of Minnesota. Hopefully, he’ll keep us afloat long enough to get my house packed up and out of the state before people realize what the hell just happened. It’s a long shot, but that’s plan A. I don’t have a plan B.

Q: Are you afraid it’s going to mix up the chemistry a little bit?

What Frazier said: No, our guys want us to do whatever it takes to win, whatever it takes to help us improve and they understand the business we’re in and we’re trying to do something to help us win, so it should help our chemistry.

What Frazier Meant: Nope. They are so desperate for anything that resembles a pulse behind center, they’d get behind Miley Cyrus if she could throw a football on a rope and hit a glass of water at 60 yards. Also, I was told there would be no chemistry involved in this Q and A. Ask another one, or a math question, and this presser is over.

Q: Can you go forward with those three quarterbacks — Ponder, Cassel and Freeman — or do you have to make a move?

What Frazier said: No, you don’t. We’ve had three guys on our roster throughout these first four weeks of the season so it wouldn’t be unusual to do that, so we don’t have to make a move.

What Frazier Meant: Well DUH, of course we have to make a move. We have a starter going to the third string, a second string guy that’s on borrowed time, and a free agent signee we’re going to give more latitude to than AA gives to Lindsay Lohan. But yeah, we could keep all three quarterbacks, because we want to watch the world burn.

October 7, 2013

I didn’t see this deal coming

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:32

The bye week is supposed to be a fairly quiet time for an NFL team … get away from the team facilities, rest up, and (especially) stay out of trouble. It’s not such a quiet time for the coaches or the front office, of course, as the business side of the league year continues through the bye week pretty much without a pause. One of the things a team will often do during a bye is look for players who could help the team out due to injuries or sub-par play. I would not have been surprised to see the Vikings work out a number of defensive backs over the last week — the corners have been a significant weak spot so far this season.

What I didn’t expect, however, was a move to sign another quarterback:

1500ESPN‘s Andrew Krammer has more:

Freeman, 25, was in his fourth full season as the starter in Tampa Bay before the Buccaneers benched their former 17th-overall pick after an 0-3 start. A reported schism between Freeman and coach Greg Schiano led to Freeman’s attempted trade and ultimate release.

He’s got a 24-35 record as a starter, regressing after his best statistical season in 2010, when the Buccaneers finished 10-6 off of Freeman’s Pro Bowl year — 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

In a little more than two seasons since, Freeman is 11-23 as a starter, with 45 touchdowns to 42 interceptions. He lost eight of his last nine games in Tampa Bay.

Freeman was the third quarterback selected in the 2009 draft, behind Matthew Stafford (1st) and Mark Sanchez (5th). He’s the only of the three without a playoff appearance.

The Vikings now find themselves with three somewhat serviceable quarterbacks in Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Freeman. Ponder began the season to the tune of five interceptions and two fumbles in an 0-3 start before a rib injury sidelined him before the team’s Sept. 29 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers in London. Cassel threw for two touchdown and no interceptions in the 34-27 win, but coach Leslie Frazier was noncommital during the bye week in choosing a starter.

Last week, when Freeman’s release from the Buccaneers was announced, Arif Hasan was quick to point out that he might be an excellent fit for Minnesota:

But there’s significant reason to believe that’s not the final chapter on Josh Freeman. Over the last two years, Freeman generated 6.5 net yards per passing attempt and 6 adjusted net yards per passing attempt-good for 11th and 16th in the league, respectively.

He hasn’t been the most accurate passer, but he generally makes up for it with deep throws, having hit 13.3 yards per completion was the second-best in the league, just after Cam Newton. In fact, his average depth of target-passes completed and missed-was an astonishing 10.7, tied for first in the league alongside Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck (second was Joe Flacco at 10.6).

It would be a far cry from the offense that Minnesota has run so far, and it may even turn out that Josh Freeman isn’t a fit in the Bill Musgrave offense.

But the designs of an offensive coordinator who may not even be around next year shouldn’t hold back signing a talented young quarterback who could take full advantage of Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings.

[…]

in Pro Football Focus‘ game tracking, Josh Freeman was asked to throw outside the numbers on deep passes nearly twice as often as an average NFL quarterback.

And he does better than the average quarterback on those passes, too. Generally speaking, quarterbacks in the NFL will connect on deep, outside the numbers passes 32.8 percent of the time and average 10.8 yards an attempt.

Josh Freeman has a lower completion rate on those passes (30.8 percent) but better yards per attempt (11.8) along with better touchdown and interception rates.

But being asked to pass those difficult throws without much outlet relief or other options makes him too easy to defend and creates a wholly inconsistent offense. It cannot be overstated how important it is to have intermediate and shorter routes available (especially over the middle of the field) if there are a number of routes that go deep. It is one thing to have a poor deep ball passing completion accuracy, but it is another thing entirely to be forced to throw passes, even when covered, because there are no other options available because of the scheme.

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