The American Civil War, if you try to look at the big picture, started off with the states dividing as this Wikipedia map indicates (although no state was all secessionist or all unionist, of course):
Union states in blue (light blue for states that permitted slavery), Confederate states in red.
Map by Júlio Reis via Wikimedia Commons.
Potential lines of demarcation today, well, here’s a guess from a few years ago based on county voting patterns, and again it’s still an approximation:
Any civil strife on this modern battlefield will be very unlike the organized Union and Confederate armies of 1861-65 having stand-up battles against one another in the countryside. Tom Kratman wrote about a potential civil war breaking out several years ago and has reposted the first part on his Substack:
I can’t quite shake the feeling that the side that wins any new civil war, to the extent that anyone can be said to “win” such a frightfulness, will be the side that a) engages in as humanitarian a form of ethnic and political cleansing as possible, first, and b) shoots second. I say “as humanitarian … as possible” because, as previously discussed,1 we are not a nation of red and blue states. Rather, instead of red and blue states, we are, as discussed a couple of years ago, “counties and neighborhoods and streets and the couch versus the bedroom after an argument with a spouse or significant other over political matters”. In short, anyone who engages in really harsh internal security measures will tend to drive people who should be its friends over to the other side. Since I’m writing this on behalf of the more or less anti-bolshevik, anti-progressive, anti-SJW2 half of the country, let me emphasize that, when the northeast, the left coast, “Yes, we old retired farts can be bribed by robbing the future” Florida, “Under the Fairfax County Bootheel” Virginia, “Cannot control Baltimore” Maryland, and CorruptionRus Illinois, unchained from the restraints we’ve imposed on them, go full lunatic lefty, let them turn into Beirut of the 80s while we try to maintain something approaching civilization as long as we can. Yes, that means I think it would be easier for us to conquer or reconquer a California devolved into its own civil war if we can avoid the same in our areas.
Note that it’s a fine line we’ll have to try to walk, rounding up those who would turn us into Beirut, without rounding up those whose rounding up will cause their friends and family to turn us into Beirut. My suggestion would be using extreme measures for those who are certain enemies, but safe and comfortable lagering or exile for those about whom there might be some doubts.
Though I may find it distasteful, honesty compels that I not shy away from that other aspect of securing the base areas, ethnic cleansing. If this nightmare comes to pass then ethnic cleansing is going to happen, I am certain, to at least three groups, Moslems, Blacks, and Hispanics. Some of it will probably come in the form of self-exile, but I would be very surprised if more of it isn’t forced. So let me throw a little damper on the KKK/alt-white-wing of my readership, if any; Trump is leading by comfortable margins in Louisiana (over a third Black and Hispanic), Mississippi (close to 40% Black and Hispanic), and Alabama (over a quarter). He’s not leading in those places by the kinds of margins he is without a more than fair sprinkling of Blacks and Hispanics, who will not be much like the rioting for fun and profit thugs of Black Lives Matter (and White Lives Don’t). Those people are us as much as anyone can be. It would be a grievous and perhaps unhealable wound to your alleged souls if you don’t treat them that way.
- http://www.everyjoe.com/2015/01/12/politics/breakup-of-united-states-terrible-idea/#1
- SJW stands for social justice warrior. Unlike many such epithets, this one was coined by the people to whom it applies. Think of idiot PhDs who call canoeing “racist”, the universe of the trigglypuffs, and those who consider eating a taco to be a crime against Mexicans, if not even a crime against humanity, which latter classification expressly excludes whites.
Update, 14 October: Welcome, Instapundit readers! Please do have a look around at some of my other posts you may find of interest. I send out a daily summary of posts here through my Substack – https://substack.com/@nicholasrusson that you can subscribe to if you’d like to be informed of new posts in the future.
[…] THIS NEEDS TO BE SAID OVER AND OVER SO LONG AS IDIOTS THINK IT’S A GREAT IDEA: A second American Civil War would not resemble the first one. […]
Pingback by Instapundit » Blog Archive » THIS NEEDS TO BE SAID OVER AND OVER SO LONG AS IDIOTS THINK IT’S A GREAT IDEA: A second American — October 14, 2025 @ 04:00
The model is the Balkan states not so much Beirut – identification of the enemy became rather easy in the kans. Picking out a random target conservative or a prog is not too difficult even now. More so when lines are drawn in blood. Beirut had many factions fighting for turf. Like Chicago gangs. Gangs will be attacking all sides and be snuffed out fast as they emigrate to rob, etc – too easy to spot, regardless of color or ethnicity – they stick out like sore thumbs – take a fun filled drive with target eyes and you’ll see.
Comment by George W — October 14, 2025 @ 08:13
Our civil war will make the Syrian civil war of 2011-2025 look li,e 2 squalene brats arguing over a sandbox. It will be bloody, and the casualty count will be in the 10s of millions. The Left doesn’t grasp this as most of their military wing (Antifa) are fools LARPing as “revolutionaries”. They have no concept of the level of violence they are attempting to loose on America. It won’t end well for anyone.
Comment by Rich Vail — October 14, 2025 @ 08:21
I would think that the targeting would be very different, conservative and progressive. The progs would be more driven by emotion, mass violence targeting police and government officials. The conservatives will be targeting specific groups and individuals: Democratic Party officials, union leaders, outspoken media and celebrities, leaders of progressive NGOs, etc.
Comment by Lovernios X — October 14, 2025 @ 09:54