Writing in Maclean’s, Jen Gerson suggests to the “conservatives” that they shouldn’t dump their new-ish leader on the basis of the party’s results in the September 20 election:
It’s come to my understanding that there is some considerable consternation about the future of Erin O’Toole, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, on the grounds that he underperformed in this week’s election.
I cannot help but wonder whether those now implacably resolved to booting the man for being inadequately conservative might, perhaps, consider getting a goddamn grip.
Yes, I understand that O’Toole ran his leadership campaign further to the right than his personality would otherwise suggest, in order to win over the Conservative base. And, yes, I understand that the unstated agreement behind this bait-and-switch was that O’Toole needed to show progress in key regions, particularly the 905. Also, yes, I understand that these gains failed to materialize, and that many conservatives feel both betrayed, and more importantly, no closer to government.
This state of affairs may ensure O’Toole’s leadership is unsalvageable.
Certainly, O’Toole and his brain trust seem to have rationally concluded that they could leave western conservatives hanging out to dry so they could chase votes in the GTA — because up until now, those westerners had nowhere else to go. However, the rise of the PPC suggests that they may now have somewhere to go …
Conservatives have a bad habit. They go into an election with reasonable expectations, enjoy some early momentum, and then let the excitement get to their heads. They reset those early expectations to something far less probable, and when the campaign produces exactly the results they predicted at the outset they declare the whole affair a disappointing failure.
I will note here that this complements the Liberal temperament, which interprets entirely lacklustre results as nothing short of a sign from the trumpet-wielding messengers of God blessing their mandate. Only the Liberals would see two successive minority governments with declining popular vote totals as clear-cut evidence that they, the worthy elect, have been chosen without reservation to lead the nation to paradise.
The Conservatives could use a little more of that energy.
These observations are provably true of both parties. The only amendment I could suggest is that the Liberals really do believe they have been granted the right to run Canada by divine providence (which few of them actually dare refer to in conversation) and view any interruption in their God-given right to rule as unnatural and a perversion of the arc of history.
Conservatives ought to have seen this election as the first in a two-election strategy. Fundamentally, the urbanites who hold the key to government don’t trust you, Conservatives. They’re worried about the conspiratorial lunatics in your caucus and your base, and they’re worried about who actually holds the reins of power in your party. Their distrust is fair, and will take time to repair.
If you dump your affable, moderate, centrist leader at the first opportunity because he didn’t crack the 905 on his first try, and you replace him with someone who will chase Maxime Bernier’s vanishing social movement like a labradoodle running after the wheels of a mail truck, you will wind up confirming every extant fear and stereotype this crowd already holds about you and your party.
It’s a trap. Be smarter than that.
The PPC nearly tripling the size of their vote over two years doesn’t quite match the characterization of a “vanishing social movement”, but I’m not who she’s trying to persuade here. It’s often said that modern “conservatives” don’t actually have a plan except to do what Liberals/Democrats want to do — just a little bit slower. O’Toole (and Ontario Tories generally) fits that description quite well.
Funny how the “progressives” always have advice for the “conservatives” after they lose. It is almost as though they want to win, or something.
While I did vote PPC this time around, it was more a warning shot toward the CPC brain trust in the hopes they will get back to being conservatives, and to start actually opposing the Liberal Party and not emulating them.
Morale of the story, don’t do what your “enemy” suggests is the right thing, because they are not advising you on your best course of action, they are advising you so they will continue to be successful.
Comment by Dwayne — September 25, 2021 @ 13:41
Despite her dismissive attitude toward Bernier and the PPC, Jen Gerson often has valuable insights that other journalists miss about Canadian politics. While the progressives probably do want O’Toole to stay, there aren’t many viable contenders to take his job anyway. My wife is a fan of Pierre Poilievre, but my sense is that he’s not well regarded by the rank-and-file party members and wouldn’t be likely to win a leadership race. O’Toole — my local MP — really is a throwback to the Bill Davis Progressive Conservatives. He’s a convinced red Tory and believes that he can only beat Trudeau by running to the left of the Liberals.
Comment by Nicholas — September 25, 2021 @ 13:47