Unlike all the other issues that might have moved the Canadian government to finally address the weaknesses of the Canadian Armed Forces (including the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the high-tempo troop deployments to Afghanistan, escalating tensions in Ukraine and eastern Europe, and the rather embarrassing ongoing rusting-out of the RCN’s ships), Donald Trump appears to have been the trigger … and the first visible result (after Chrystia Freeland’s rather … muscular speech the other day) is the publication of Strong, Secure, Engaged [PDF].

It certainly says a lot of the right things, from personnel to equipment to training and deployment, but as always with a big government announcement, the devil will be in the details. From Defence minister Harjit Sajjan’s introduction:

The pages that follow detail a new vision for the Defence team for the coming decades. It is about our contribution to a Canada that is strong at home, secure in North America, and engaged in the world. In a rapidly changing and less predictable world, we recognize that the distinction between domestic and international threats is becoming less relevant. Therefore, we cannot be strong at home unless we are also engaged in the world.

The policy also includes a new framework for how we will implement that vision. “Anticipate, Adapt and Act,” sets out a way of operating that addresses the challenges we face today, and the ones that will emerge tomorrow.

Canadians take pride in their Armed Forces, and its members serve their country admirably every day. Whether it is responding to natural disasters, providing expert search and rescue, defending our sovereignty, or contributing to greater peace and security in the world, our military answers the call wherever and whenever it occurs

So, along with all the verbiage, what is the new policy going to mean for the Canadian Forces?

This is the most rigorously costed Canadian defence policy ever developed. It is transparent and fully funded. To meet Canada’s defence needs at home and abroad, the Government will grow defence spending over the next 10 years from $18.9 billion in 2016-17 to $32.7 billion in 2026-27.

That is still short of what we promised to spend on defence as part of our NATO commitment, but it’s a fair bit closer to that pledge. What will the money be spent on?

• Tax relief for deployed troops – when overseas on a deployment, the government will provide exemption on the federal portion of the income tax for all ranks up to Lieutenant Colonel. (That will make deployment a much more financially enticing prospect, although it won’t make up for the disruption to the personal lives of the troops. As an additional sweetener, they’re making this retroactive to January of this year.)
• Diversity and inclusion – “The Canadian Armed Forces will increase the proportion of women in the military by 1 percent annually, to move from the current 15 percent to 25 percent representation by 2026” (Good luck on living up to that pledge … the military lifestyle is not as appealing to the average woman, so this target may have to be fudged over time.)
• $144.8 million to Support Military Family Resource Centres – This might help to make the military a bit more of an attractive option to those women mentioned in the last point…
• $198.2 million for new Total Health and Wellness Strategy – A tacit admission that the military hierarchy hasn’t been paying enough to keep the troops fit and healthy up to now? (Spoiler: yeah, pretty much.)
• Reinvention of Canadian Armed Forces Transition – Same comment as the last item. Staffing this new organization is noted as 1,200 … not clear whether these are existing or new positions.
• Canadian Surface Combatant for the Royal Canadian Navy – These are the replacement ships for the RCN’s current 12 frigates and now-retired three destroyers. They were supposedly fully funded by the previous Conservative government, but there had been lots of rumours that the price to build had increased so much that the budget would not stretch to the full 15 vessels. So, no additional ships, but at least we’re promised a one-for-one replacement for the current surface fleet. The existing Victoria-class submarines are mentioned to be modernized to extend their service lives out to the 2030s, but no additional submarines are in the plan.
• New aircraft for the Royal Canadian Air Force – 88 new fighters (oddly, the F-35 is not mentioned…), along with “recapitalizing many of its aircraft fleets such as the CP-140 Aurora anti-submarine warfare and surveillance aircraft”
• Increasing the size of the regular and reserve forces – An increase of 3,500 regular force and 1,500 reserve force troops (to 71,000 and 30,000 respectively).
• Global satellite communications – Upgrading the existing satellite capability (with the Arctic specifically called out). The “Space and Cyber” entry is worth quoting in full: “Canada will modernize its space capabilities and will take steps to protect these critical assets against sophisticated threats, while continuing to promote the peaceful use of outer space. We will assume a more assertive posture in the cyber domain by hardening our defences, and by conducting active cyber operations against potential adversaries in the context of government-authorized military missions. Cyber operations will be subject to all applicable domestic law, international law, and proven checks and balances such as rules of engagement, targeting and collateral damage assessments.”
• Fleet of remotely piloted systems – Long overdue acknowledgement of the usefulness of modern RPVs in many environments and at all scales of military operation.

The document also recapitulates what the ministry sees as its core responsibilities to Canada and our allies:

• Actively address threats abroad for stability at home;
• Field an agile, well-educated, flexible, diverse, combat-ready military;
• Develop sophisticated awareness of its operating environment to better predict and respond to crises;
• Act as a responsible, value-added partner with NORAD, NATO and Five-Eyes partners;
• Work with the United States to ensure that NORAD is modernized to meet existing and future challenges;
• Balance traditional relationships with the need to engage emerging powers;
• Field advanced capabilities to keep pace with allies and maintain an advantage over potential adversaries;
• Address the threat stemming from terrorism and the actions of violent extremist organizations, including in ungoverned spaces;
• Bolster its ability to respond to increasingly severe natural disasters at home and abroad; and
• Increase presence in the Arctic over the long-term and work cooperatively with Arctic partners.

Ted Campbell wasn’t impressed by a particular part of the document that spelled out several missions in oddly specific fashion:

It then goes on to say that “the Canadian Armed Forces will be prepared to simultaneously:

• Defend Canada, including responding concurrently to multiple domestic emergencies in support of civilian authorities;
• Meet its NORAD obligations, with new capacity in some areas;
• Meet commitments to NATO Allies under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty;
• Contribute to international peace and stability through:

• Two sustained deployments of ~500-1500 personnel, including one as a lead nation;
• One time-limited deployment of ~500-1500 personnel (6-9 months duration);
• Two sustained deployments of ~100-500 personnel;
• Two time-limited deployments (6-9 months) of ~100-500 personnel;
• One Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) deployment, with scaleable additional support; and
• One Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation, with scaleable additional support.”

I’m sorry, but I find the detailed listing of a few penny-packets of deployments at the end to be errant nonsense. It is, to be charitable, what were taught, when I was young, to be the cardinal sin of “situating the appreciation.” Sensible planner analyze the tasks as they arise and then determine what resources can be brought o bear. Minister Sajjan’s policy paper say that the threats to “international peace and stability” must be of a specific nature that can be addressed by e.g. “Two sustained deployments of ~500-1500 personnel, including one as a lead nation … [and] … One time-limited deployment of ~500-1500 personnel (6-9 months duration) and so on.

I’m sure that the list is, as the Minister said, costed, but I’m also sure the cost was determined first and then the list was made to fit within it. That might be sound management but it is not a strategic plan.