In his Friday Mailbag, Severian answers a reader question about the reports coming out of Ukraine about casualties in the recent fighting:
Back in the worst of the covid days (so far), I often said that we’re stewing in so many obvious lies, I’m starting to question the very existence of a country called “China”. Not to mention the germ theory of disease. Is there actually a war at all in Ukraine? How do we sift and weight sources?
My rules of thumb (two thumbs, two rules) for judging the underlying truthiness of a Media story are what I’ll call “the Goebbels factor” and “admission against interest”.
The “Goebbels factor” is that fellow’s well-known dictum that the best propaganda is mostly true. Outright lies — straight up, 100% false-to-facts whoppers — are actually extremely rare, even in the AINO Media. This is because out-and-out lies take a tremendous amount of effort to maintain. Not only that, their opportunity cost is off the charts, because once you’ve peddled the lie, you’re stuck with that specific lie forever. You have to keep investing in the lie, and you must also keep investing in what I guess we’ll call the “information infrastructure” surrounding that lie. It’s just not cost-effective.
The second factor — “admission against interest” — is, of course, just the second step in everyone’s favorite dance, the Media Shuffle. The first step is “That’s not happening!” The second step is “… and here’s why it’s good that it is.” Think of it as the retooling of the previous “information infrastructure.” Lies have to be supported, one way or the other. If the lie is “there’s no inflation!”, then the “information infrastructure” consists of semi-plausible (for Juggalo values of “plausible”) “explanations” of all the very obvious inflation that’s very obviously happening. You know the drill: Putin’s price hikes! Global Warming!! Systemic Racism!!!
It’s much easier to flip those around, to “explain” why all those are actually good for you, than it is to keep investing in the original lie. It’s important to note — as if y’all need the reminder! — that the “admission against interest” is ALSO chock full of lies; you have to cross check the new lies against the old lies to reach an approximation of the truth (the discipline known as FNG-ology; the practitioners of which are stoyakniks).
Given all that: Yeah, the war in Ukraine is real, and the Ukrainians really are getting keestered. My heart goes out to the Ukrainian people, who did nothing to deserve it, and I only ask that you remember who did this to you: Brandon and the Juggalos. It’s ALL on them. Putin really had no choice.
