Quotulatiousness

April 25, 2013

What we “know” as opposed to what is actually true

Filed under: Business, Football, Health, Law — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 13:36

We all know the NFL is in serious trouble as more evidence comes out about the relationship between playing professional football and brain damage in later life. But what we know may not be true:

Dr. Everett Lehman, part of a team of government scientists who studied mortality rates for NFL retirees at the behest of the players’ union, discovered that the pros live longer than their male counterparts outside of the NFL. The scientists looked at more than 3,000 pension-vested NFL retirees and expected 625 deaths. They found only 334. “There has been this perception over a number of years of people dying at 55 on the average,” Dr. Lehman told me. “It’s just based on a faulty understanding of statistics.”

The scientists also learned that, contrary to conventional wisdom, NFL players commit suicide at a dramatically lower rate than the general male population. The suicides of Junior Seau, Dave Duerson, and Andre Waters don’t represent a trend but outliers that attract massive attention, and thereby massively distort the public’s perception. More typical was the death of Pat Summerall, who passed away quietly last week at 82 after a productive post-career career.

Indeed, a 2009 study by University of Michigan researchers reported that NFL retirees are far more likely to own a home, possess a college degree, and enjoy health insurance than their peers who never played in the league. The myth of the broke and broken-down athlete is just that: a myth. A few surely struggle after competition ceases; most apply their competitive natures to new endeavors.

It’s true that skill-position players on rosters for five or more years in the NFL faced elevated levels of Alzheimer’s, Lou Gehrig’s, and Parkinson’s disease deaths. But some perspective is in order. Of the 3,439 retired athletes studied by Lehman’s group, less than a dozen succumbed to deaths directly attributable to these neurodegenerative killers. Had Parkinson’s killed one rather than the two retirees it did kill, for example, its rate would have been lower among players than among the general population.

It’s quite possible the NFL is concerned (and ensuring that it is seen to be concerned) primarily because of the need to address public perceptions, rather than as a defensive move against future or ongoing legal challenges.

Predict the draft?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:21

As I say every year around this time, I don’t follow college football so except for the odd name I kinda-sorta recognize, I don’t have particularly strong feelings about who the Vikings should be drafting this year. Before the first round starts this evening, they hold two first-round picks and nine picks in the other six rounds. This number will almost certainly change several times over the weekend as teams swap picks to move up or down in the draft order.

One constant everyone seems to understand is that the can’t miss top-tier players are limited, and they are pretty much guaranteed to be gone just before your team is on the clock. This is what drives fans crazy: their stubborn general manager/owner won’t trade up to get that one last blue-chip player that would guarantee your team the Lombardi Trophy for years to come.

I don’t know who the Vikings will end up drafting over the next three days, but there are some positional needs that pretty much demand to be attended to — either in the draft itself or in the free agent market that will heat up again once the draft is finished. Here are what I think are the Vikings’ most urgent needs:

  1. Middle linebacker. With the departure of Jasper Brinkley in free agency, the only middle linebacker on the roster right now is Audie Cole. Cole played well in very limited preseason action (recording back-to-back interceptions returned for touchdowns) and special teams work in the regular season. It’s not anticipated that he’d be ready to step in to a starting role this year. Arif Hasan at the Daily Norseman says the top linebackers who would fit the Vikings’ scheme are Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Arthur Brown, and Manti Te’o.
  2. Wide receiver. Last year’s receiving corps was one of the weakest in the NFL, and most of the receivers who saw extended playing time have left (Harvin traded to Seattle, Jenkins released and signed with New England, Aromashodu an untendered free agent). Signing Greg Jennings from the Packers is a major upgrade, but a deep-threat receiver is still needed. Arif’s choices would be DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, and Da’Rick Rogers
  3. Cornerback. This wasn’t an urgent need until the team unexpectedly cut Antoine Winfield to clear salary cap room to re-sign Phil Loadholt. Now, it means the Vikings should try to find a starting-calibre player early in the draft (or hope that first-year player Josh Robinson develops enough to step in to Winfield’s shoes). Arif suggests Dee Milliner, Desmond Trufant, Johnthan Banks, and Xavier Rhodes.
  4. Defensive tackle. Kevin Williams has been a great player for the Vikings, but he’s not what he was a few years back. Guion and Evans are both adequate at nose tackle, but as Tom Pelissero would put it, they’re just guys. (Technically the other half of the Williams Wall is rejoining the team, but Pat Williams is only going to be a Viking for one day so he can retire.) Arif’s preferred picks would be Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, and Johnathan Jenkins.
  5. Offensive guard. 2012 starters Brandon Fusco and Charlie Johnson remain with the team (although Johnson is in the final year of his contract), so this isn’t an urgent need now. This would be a luxury pick compared to the higher-priority needs listed above. Arif would pick Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, or Larry Warford.
  6. Defensive end. This is one of the undoubted strengths of the team. For this year, anyway: the top three ends (Jared Allen, Brian Robison, and Everson Griffin) all have contracts that expire at the end of this season. It’s unlikely the team will re-sign all three, so drafting a potential replacement this year would be prudent. Arif says Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner, Ezekiel Ansah, Cornelius “Tank” Carradine, or Datone Jones would be the best choices for the Vikings.

Interpreting what NFL coaches and general managers say leading up to the draft

Filed under: Business, Football, Humour — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:02

It’s a time of the year when pretty much nothing coming out of the mouths of team officials can be taken at face value … GMs and coaches don’t want to tip their hands in advance of making their selections on draft day, so lots of misinformation is spread. For example, the Daily Norseman‘s Ted Glover goes through yesterday’s press conference by Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and tries to give us an interpretation of what was said (and not said):

Vikings GM Rick Spielman has become known for his amazing ability to fill up a notebook saying anything…unless one is willing to read between the lines.

Here at DN, I got drunk one night and started posting, I was tasked with deciphering what we’ve come to know as Rick Speak, and take his paragraphs of nothing, non- denials, and unequivocal statements that really are equivocal, and turn them into some useful information.

[. . .]

    Rick Says: I think this is going to be one of most intriguing drafts I’ve been associated with because of the depth of the draft.

What that means: There’s not a lot of top shelf talent, and GM’s across the league would cut their grandma’s achilles tendons if they could get a good deal. We’re moving up to get an impact player, because he’s got two draft picks and and they’re BURNIN’ A HOLE IN MAH POCKET WOOOOOOOOOO!

    Rick Says: And to be honest with you (Ed note: LOLWUT), where we’re picking at 23 and 25, we’re looking at all our needs, from the whole defensive side of the ball to needs on the offensive side of the ball, trying to distinguish what makes this potential receiver better than this corner, better than this linebacker, better than this defensive end, better than this defensive tackle.

What that means: None of our scouts agree on anyone, and that means no matter who we draft, a sizeable portion of our fanbase is going to be disappointed and call for my head on a platter. If we stay where we are many of you will IMMEDIATELY draw comparisons to 2005. But hey…new uniforms WOOO!

[. . .]

Rick also talked about a couple positions and position players, and how that might relate to the upcoming draft.

    Tom P says Rick says: Asked if Erin Henderson was strictly considered a weak-side linebacker at this point, Spielman said, “No, that’s flexible. That depends on what happens in the draft. If we go outside, Erin can slide inside or if we go inside Erin can play outside. That’s what is great about this linebacker thing. We have the flexibility to go either way.”

What that means: We’re so gooned at linebacker right now. There’s nothing great about not having a starting MLB on the roster, and we have to be so flexible because we’re currently gooned. Did I mention we’re gooned at the linebacker position right now?

Populist talk on taxes may please the voters (sometimes), but it won’t help the economy

Filed under: Cancon, Economics, Government, Politics — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:01

In Maclean’s, Stephen Gordon explains why the only kind of tax hikes that seem in any way “popular” are particularly bad if implemented:

Magical thinking might be smart politics, but it’s not very good economics. Here are the two most popular themes:

  1. Higher corporate income taxes. From a political marketing point of view, the appeal of increasing corporate income tax (CIT) rates is obvious: “Hey, I’m not a corporation, so it’s no skin off my nose.” But the economics of CIT rates are very dodgy indeed: higher CIT rates are the most costly way of generating revenue and are most harmful to economic growth. It also turns out that workers and consumers are the ones who ultimately bear the burden of higher CIT rates. (If you start taxing corporate profits, shareholders will eventually move their money to jurisdictions with more competitive rates, reducing the availability of investment capital. In the long-run, that results in lower output and weaker labour demand. More on that here.) But even if you were willing to pay these costs, higher CIT rates don’t generate much in the way of new revenues.
  2. Increased taxes on high earners. While there may be good reasons for wanting to use the personal income tax system to counter recent trends in the concentration of income, policymakers should be under no illusions about how much new revenue taxing the rich will bring in. There simply aren’t that many high earners to tax, and they have access to expert tax planning advice: there is overwhelming evidence showing that those with high incomes can and will respond to higher tax rates by reporting lower taxable income.

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