Strategy Page reports that the US military had made contingency plans to cover Pakistani military intervention in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden:
On May 2nd, the United States was prepared to go to war with Pakistan. The American raid on that day, which killed Osama bin Laden and seized a huge mass of al Qaeda data from his Pakistani hideout, was carried out without informing Pakistan beforehand. Although Pakistan had years earlier agreed that the U.S. could enter Pakistani territory in hot pursuit of terrorists fleeing Afghanistan, or to grab high ranking al Qaeda leaders, it was always assumed that the U.S. would let the Pakistani military know what was coming. But because the Pakistani government was full of bin Laden fans, the U.S. did not inform Pakistan about the raid until it was underway. Apparently, that message included a reminder that if the U.S. troops in the bin Laden compound were attacked by Pakistani forces, there would be instant, and far-reaching, consequences.
The extent of those consequences have since been pieced together, from unclassified information. By May 2nd, the U.S. had assembled a huge naval and air force in the region, that was pointed at Pakistan. This force would attack any Pakistani troops or warplanes that went after the U.S. forces in the bin Laden compound, or who might be able to do so. The U.S. had assembled three aircraft carriers, hundreds of air force aircraft in Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, and dozens of helicopters, and thousands of troops, in Afghanistan. Most of these troops didn’t know what they were alerted for. Such alerts happen all the time, often for no reason (as far as the troops are concerned.) But this time, as word of the bin Laden raid got out, it became obvious (at least to those who know how these things work) that the alerts throughout the region were to prepare for the possible need to quickly get the American raiders out, and destroy any Pakistani forces that sought to interfere.
The question remains how come the Pakistani government officials didn’t have any information about bin Laden’s shelter? The US has poured so much money into its military and with no positive results.
Comment by Lorne Marr — May 16, 2011 @ 05:06
The question remains
Perhaps you’re thinking of the Pakistan government as an efficient well-run deal like you’re used to seeing in the West.
What I have read (which is, yes, just a little) tells me that the government there is split into multiple interests and factions: it’s a tribal deal with some Western bits loosely bolted on.
I have no problem believing the government we deal with had no idea he was there. People within might have had a notion, but if you don’t look for bad news, you won’t find it, nu? Other factions provided shelter, cover, and, sure, knew, but they don’t like us anyway.
Comment by Brian Dunbar — May 17, 2011 @ 09:53
An analogy from history might be how the English poured so much money into Viking hands:
And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we’ve proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
The money to Pakistan might be only Dane-geld at one remove: much of it ended up in the hands of the ISI and then got passed on to the Taliban.
Comment by Nicholas — May 17, 2011 @ 10:58