Quotulatiousness

May 1, 2011

Repost: Ballot Box Irregularities

Filed under: Cancon, Law, Politics — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 13:46

I first posted this article in 2004. I repost it every election:

Ballot Box Irregularities, Canadian Style

This article in Reason Hit and Run talks about the recent decision to allow partisan ballot-challengers to monitor the voting in Ohio. In Canada, these people are called “scrutineers” and they have a vital job.

No, I’m not kidding about the vital part. Each candidate has the right to appoint a scrutineer for every poll in the riding (usually only the Liberal, NDP, and Conservative parties can manage to field that much manpower). I was a scrutineer during a federal byelection in the mid-1980’s in a Toronto-area riding, but I had five polls to monitor (all were in the same school gymnasium). This was my first real experience of how dirty the political system can be.

The scrutineers have the right to challenge voters — although I don’t remember any challenges being issued at any of my polls — similar to the Ohio situation, I believe. They also have the right to be present during the vote count and to challenge the validity of individual ballots. Their job is to maximize the vote for their candidate and minimize the vote for their opponents.

Canadian ballots are pretty straightforward items: they are small, folded slips of paper with each candidate’s name listed alphabetically and a circle to indicate a vote for that candidate. A valid vote will have only one mark inside one of the circles (an X is the preferred mark). An invalid vote might have:

  • No markings at all (a blank ballot)
  • More than one circle marked (a spoiled ballot)
  • Some mark other than an X (this is where the scrutineers become important).

After the polls close, the poll clerk and the Deputy Returning Officer (DRO) secure the unused ballots and then open the ballot box in the presence of any accredited scrutineers. The clerk and DRO then count all the ballots, indicating valid votes for candidates and invalid ballots. The scrutineers can challenge any ballot and it must be set aside and reconsidered after the rest of the ballots are counted.

A challenged ballot must be defended by one of the scrutineers or it is considered to be invalid and the vote is not counted. The clerk and DRO have the power to make the decision, but in practice a noisy scrutineer can usually bully the DRO into accepting all their challenges. I didn’t realize just how easy it was to screw with the system until I’d been a scrutineer and watched it happen over and over again.

This is the key reason why minor party candidates poll so badly in Canadian elections: they don’t have enough (or, in many cases, any) scrutineers to defend their votes. In my experience in that Toronto-area byelection, I personally saved nearly 4% of the total vote my candidate received (in the entire riding) by counter-challenging challenged ballots. We totalled just over 400 votes in the riding (in just about 100 polls) — 21 of them in my polls. I got 15 of those votes allowed, when they would otherwise have been disallowed by the DRO.

There was no legal reason to disallow those votes: they were clearly marked with an X and had no other marks on them; they were challenged because they were votes for a minor candidate. As it was, I had a heck of a time running from poll to poll in order to get my counter-challenges in (I probably missed a few votes by not being able to get back to a poll in time).

The Libertarians only had six or seven scrutineers, covering less than a third of the polls in this riding. If the challenge rate was typical in my poll, then instead of the 400-odd votes, we actually received nearly 2000 votes — but most of them were not counted.

Yes, even 2000 votes would not have swung the election, but 2000 people willing to vote for a “fringe” party would be a good argument against those “throwing away your vote” criticisms. Voters are weird creatures in some ways: they like to feel that their votes actually matter. Voting for someone who espouses views you like, then discovering that only a few others feel the same way will discourage most voters from voting that way again in future.

Another reason that minor party votes matter (that I neglected to mention in the original post) is that parties receive funding based on their vote totals in the previous election. Disallowing minor party votes also deprives those parties of the funding they would otherwise be entitled to next time around. For the bigger parties, this is trivial, but for minor parties, this may be critical to them being able to stay active — and visible to voters — between elections.

Don’t vote?

Filed under: Cancon, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 13:32

As the old joke has it, “Don’t vote: it only encourages them“:

“Why should youth vote in the upcoming federal election?” asks a series of Go Vote! actors. “I’m voting because I want to address bullying in schools and communities across the country,” answers one youth, as if school bullying is a ballot question this year, or as if it obviously should be, given that in Canada schools and communities more properly fall under provincial responsibility. Other answers, by other Go Vote! youths, do fall under federal jurisdiction, and also within Public Policy Forum’s bigger-government mindset. The video has one youth wanting government support for the arts. Another for sports. Another for youth entrepreneurs.

None of the Go Vote! actors said “I’m voting to stop the high taxes that cause youth unemployment to soar,” or “I’m voting to stop unfunded pensions and other government giveaways to the older generation that are stealing the future from us youths.” The Go Vote! video exhorts youth to vote without exhorting them to become informed, as if the right choice of candidate is too obvious to name. Little wonder that the current fads on campus are termed mob voting. Mob voting, and the mob rule it promotes, can only delegitimize the authority of democratically elected leaders. The higher the vote turnout, in other words, the less legitimate the government.

Go Vote! claims “Everyone needs to vote.” In fact, no one who cares about Canada should vote if their vote isn’t well informed. Voting is a small part of being a good citizen, and a relatively unimportant part, especially if the goal is to keep government leaders accountable. Joining a lobby organization or writing letters to the editor or to elected representatives can be far more effective in putting politicians on the spot, if that’s your sort of thing.

Whether or not you’re informed, don’t vote if you don’t want to. You don’t become unworthy if you don’t obey the election scolds, just as you don’t become worthy by casting a mindless vote at the behest of others.

I’m voting tomorrow, as I’ve voted in every federal and provincial election since I became old enough to cast a vote. And, as usual, I’ll be “wasting my vote” on a candidate who almost certainly won’t win (Josh Insang, Libertarian Party of Canada). I’m encouraging others to vote, even if they’re going to “waste” their votes for candidates who won’t win. But I’m totally opposed to the idea that voting should be mandatory (as Australian law requires). If there’s no party or candidate that you feel deserves your vote, then you should have the right not to vote.

Final pre-election poll numbers

Filed under: Cancon, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:17

Tomorrow looks like an interesting day:

Click thumbnail to view full size table

Update: To further emphasize how interesting tomorrow’s vote may be, Colby Cosh points out that nobody is confident in their predictions:

Are you ready to stay up late May 2? Do you have good coffee and plenty of snacks laid in? This may be the election with the highest quantity of uncertainty in my adult experience. The NDP’s dazzling polling gains simply have no obvious recent precedent. I’m not sure a national party has ever made strides of this magnitude and nature in such a bewilderingly short time.

Think about the questions you have to ask to estimate the impact, in terms of Commons representation, of a shift like this; you have to form ideas about the sincerity of the polling subjects’ intentions, the efficiency of the resulting gains in various regions, and the pure logistical power of the party to get out its vote, all while taking into account the activity and the relative positions of three or four other parties.

And then, as if all that weren’t enough, some old flatfoot comes along and tells some TV guys about Jack Layton getting naked in a place he ought not to have been naking around in. Nobody knows what will happen on May 2 — and I don’t mean that in the usual perfunctory way. This time, really, nobody has any idea. Having messed around with election models, I could tell you plausible stories that involve the NDP winning 120 seats; I could tell you stories of roughly equal plausibility that put them at 55.

Of course, there are limits. I am just about ready to rule out a Diefenbaker-like cross-country rampage by the Conservatives. I am just about ready to promise that Michael Ignatieff will not look happy on Monday evening. (Though even then: how stupefyingly low are expectations for him at this point?) What I can tell you is what how I would bet, if I had to bet. I believe, halfway through the weekend, that the Conservative push for a majority will come down to the wire. And I think they are a little more likely to get there than not.

More about Christian Ponder

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 11:31

Some highly complimentary things about the Vikings’ new quarterback from Sid Hartman:

Greg Hudson, as good a defensive coordinator as the Gophers have ever had and who has the same role at Florida State, describes Vikings first-round draft choice Christian Ponder as the next Roger Staubach.

Staubach, the great Cowboys quarterback, was Hudson’s idol as he grew up, and so the Gophers defensive coordinator from 2002 to ’04 is paying the young man a huge compliment. Hudson said Ponder gave him headaches during Seminoles practices last year.

“I’m not telling you that he is [Staubach] right now, but he has the attributes to be a Roger Staubach-type of player,” said Hudson, who went to Florida State to work with head coach Jimbo Fisher after five years at East Carolina with Skip Holtz. “… Roger Staubach was my idol growing up in Cincinnati, that’s where [Staubach] is from. Christian Ponder could have been a Navy graduate [as Staubach was], high academic, very educated. Christian just has a lot of the attributes that Roger Staubach had.”

Hudson said the injuries that Ponder has suffered primarily have been self-inflicted because of how hard he played.

“The kid, at some point, just like [Jets coach] Rex Ryan got mad at [quarterback Mark] Sanchez for not learning how to slide. Christian Ponder’s got to learn how to protect himself. He plays quarterback like he’s a linebacker,” Hudson said.

[. . .]

Hudson said he had seen all the top quarterbacks, including the ones taken ahead of Ponder, on film, and he is sure the Vikings got the best QB in the draft.

“Here’s the thing, Christian Ponder is made for the NFL game,” Hudson said. “His mentality, his physical attributes, the kid’s mindset is made for the NFL game. That’s what separates him. He is prepared for the NFL in our offense, pro-style.

“We didn’t have great wide receivers. We had good, not great. He had to make things happen. His passing percentage was down because kids couldn’t run routes right.”

Hudson is confident that Ponder could start as a rookie.

“I think one because he can handle it physically, but No. 2 he can handle it mentally over other kids,” Hudson said. “You can’t evaluate based on the team’s record. Because if you look at Troy Aikman and [Peyton] Manning, they both had losing records their first year as [NFL] starters. But they were able to run the offense. Ponder will be able to run the offense. He’ll have to take his rookie growing pains, but man, I’d put the saddle on him and ride him all the way.

Vikings finish draft with 10 new players

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:26

After having only two picks over the first two days of the draft, the Vikings were much busier on the final day of the draft:

  • Round 4 (106th pick overall) — Christian Ballard, Defensive lineman, Iowa.
    With the Vikings’ Kevin Williams potentially facing a four-game suspension (and Pat Williams now a free agent), Ballard will have a chance to showcase his abilities early in the season. He was initially projected as a second round pick, but he slid down to the fourth round due to a reported failed drug test.
  • Round 5 (139th pick overall) — Brandon Burton, Cornerback, Utah.
    Cornerback is definitely a position that needs bolstering: Griffin and Cook both ended last season on injured reserve, and Winfield (while still a great player) is nearing the end of his career. Burton may push Asher Allen for a roster spot, although he has a reputation for a soft playing style according to Pro Football Weekly.
  • Round 6 (168th pick overall) — DeMarcus Love, Offensive tackle/guard, Arkansas.
    Another player who may have a chance to work his way into the starting line-up. Protecting the quarterback is always important, but with either Joe Webb or Christian Ponder under centre, it becomes that much more necessary. According to Chip Scoggins, his versatility along the line is probably why the Vikings chose to draft him.
  • Round 6 (170th pick overall) — Mistral Raymond, Defensive back, South Florida.
    Safety is another area in need of more depth. Raymond could push the incumbent players, or even displace one of them with a strong showing in training camp. Raymond has had a tough time in his family life over the last few years.
  • Round 6 (172nd pick overall) — Brandon Fusco, Center/guard, Slippery Rock.
    Another versatile offensive line player can always find a roster spot. Sullivan played injured for most of last season, so having a backup centre who can also play other line positions is great for depth. Judd Zulgad believes he’s going to end up on the practice squad this season.
  • Round 6 (200th pick overall) — Ross Homan, Linebacker, Ohio State.
    The Vikings may lose outside linebacker Ben Leber to free agency (once that starts), so having another linebacker in camp is a need they address with this pick.
  • Round 7 (215th pick overall) — D’Aundre Reed, Defensive end, Arizona.
    Another position that may be opening due to free agency loss. Judd Zulgad isn’t too impressed: “All I can think is the Vikings are either convinced Griffen is going to get his act together, they are planning on starting Robison at left end or they are convinced we’re going to play under the 2010 CBA and Edwards will be back because if that’s the case he will be a restricted free agent. Reed looks like a practice squad guy to me.”
  • Round 7 (236th pick overall) — Stephen Burton, Wide receiver, West Texas A&M.
    With Sidney Rice potentially leaving in free agency, the Vikings have a need for another receiver. Brief write-up on Burton here.

Unlike in previous years, where the draft is immediately followed by teams signing lots of undrafted free agents, the NFL’s labour situation prevents that until the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is in place (or the courts rule in a way to allow free agency to begin).

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