Quotulatiousness

April 12, 2015

Arif Hasan breaks down the Vikings’ offseason moves

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 03:00

Many fans have been feeling frustrated with the Minnesota Vikings for their apparent lack of interest through the free agency period of the NFL’s year. The team indicated interest — but not sufficiently strong interest — in a few big name free agents, but didn’t end up signing any of them. For fans hoping for interesting story lines (and headlines), there was much disappointment. Adding to that, of course, is the morale-draining saga of Adrian Peterson’s ongoing disciplinary issues with the league’s head office and his clearly communicated desire to leave Minnesota as soon as possible.

With all that in the background, Arif Hasan does his best to pull out the non-headline-getting but important roster moves the team has made since the start of the new league year and how that may affect their approach to the draft at the end of the month:

The Vikings re-signed a number of players, none of whom are expected to start, but some of whom can be critical depth going forward.

The most important of those re-signings was a former Arena Football League player entering age 31: Tom Johnson. A shockingly effective defensive tackle in rotation, it would have been easy to expect Johnson not only to be cut in training camp, but not to be picked up by another team.

Instead, he had the fifth-most sacks per snap of any defensive tackle with at least 25 percent of their team’s snaps, per Pro Football Focus. That’s more than Gerald McCoy and Aaron Donald.

[…]

In addition, the Vikings re-signed potential starting guard Joe Berger and last year’s starting running back, Matt Asiata. Cullen Loeffler, the long snapper, was also signed to a contract for one year.

Those re-signings don’t reveal much about the Vikings’ plan for next year, but letting linebacker Jasper Brinkley walk does. The Vikings did not contact Brinkley much throughout the free agency process, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, until the last minute to offer a one-year deal. He instead took a two-year deal in Dallas.

The Vikings are clearly willing to move on from him at inside linebacker, and such movement could mean there’s already a plan in mind for one of the two linebacker positions that seem to be unsettled. The Vikings’ willingness to go after Brinkley for a small amount may mean that plan could use depth, but it does not require the player who played there last year.

The Berger re-signing, along with re-signing restricted free agent Mike Harris (who played both guard and tackle for the Vikings last year as injuries piled up) may provide clues into the guard battle, which we’ll discuss a bit more below.

Arif goes on to discuss the (few) free-agent signings, including the Polish man-mountain Babatunde Aiyegbusi, trades (Matt Cassel to Buffalo, Mike Wallace from Miami), and cuts (headlined by Greg Jennings). After all that, he tries to gaze into the cloudy crystal ball to determine what the Vikings are likely to do in the draft:

There is no real “known” need, but the assumption that the Vikings are interested in defensive backs and linebackers seems fairly widely held by national media. It’s in part motivated by the extensive contact the Vikings have had with both sets of position groups in a list compiled by the Star Tribune.

So far, it seems like the Vikings’ plan is to draft positions they think are in the worst shape but let players fight it out for those positions of need and prove that they are talent, not potential. Which is to say, let the young roster develop and then weed out the ones who don’t develop quickly enough by next year.

With the Vikings’ broad pattern of selecting late-round linemen, don’t expect a guard early in the draft. One could imagine with Greenway being restructured instead of cut that outside linebacker may not be a selection early on. But that could just be the cost of mentorship—or a sign of a lack of confidence in their outside options behind Greenway (which seems unlikely).

Minnesota has a bad left tackle in Matt Kalil, but there’s real reason to think he’s not as bad as he has been in the last two years. His rookie year was good, and he could tap into the talent there, and the last five games of this last season were better than the previous 27.

In that case, the popular picks for offensive linemen like Brandon Scherff, La’el Collins or Andrus Peat may not play out. Besides, cutting a guard on the off chance the lineman you like is there seems more reckless than general manager Rick Spielman has shown to be.

The best option may be trading down in the draft to grab an inside linebacker and cornerback with the early picks or potentially a safety. Otherwise, expect a year with lots of young players struggling, while a few shine.

March 10, 2015

Vikings draft/free agency priorities

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 06:00

The NFL’s free agency period begins later today, after the three-day warmup of what many call the “legal tampering period”, where teams can contact and negotiate with pending free agents, but only contracts for players returning to their current teams can be finalized. Minnesota, for example, re-signed long snapper Cullen Loeffler and backup defensive tackle Tom Johnson over the last few days.

The Vikings currently hold the #11 pick in the first round of the NFL draft later this spring, but Vikings general manager “Trader Rick” Spielman has been a very active participant in swapping draft picks in each of the last three drafts, so I think it’s highly likely that unless the team has identified an overriding requirement for a particular player they’ll be looking to trade back at least a few spots in the first round to gain additional later round picks. Spielman has said on more than one occasion that he likes to have 9-10 picks every draft, and has managed to obtain multiple first round picks in each of the last three drafts (Kalil and Smith in 2012, Floyd, Rhodes, and Patterson in 2013, and Barr and Bridgewater in 2014). You can only get extra picks through shrewd deal-making, and Spielman has proven that he’s quite shrewd.

Between free agency and the draft, the Vikings need to address certain positional weaknesses and/or add depth to cope with injuries or other events preventing players from taking the field (*cough* Adrian Peterson *cough*). Here are the areas I think the team will concentrate on once the madness of full free agency begins.

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November 27, 2014

How bad is the NFC South this season?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 07:29

Dave Rappoccio says it’s this bad:

This week, the NFC south is a dumpster fire, and that might be an insult to dumpster fires. The Saints and Falcons are tied in first with 4 wins each, and the woeful 2-9 Buccaneers are one game out of picking 1st in the draft and 2 games out of first place. No team looks to have a winning record by the end of the season and we could potentially have a 5-11 division winner while a potential double digit team in a real mans division misses the playoffs entirely. IS THIS ACCEPTABLE?

May 19, 2014

First look at the Vikings 2014 draft class and undrafted free agents

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:42

Over this past weekend, the Minnesota Vikings held a three-day rookie camp for their 2014 draft class, undrafted free agents, and members of the 2013 practice squad. By NFL rules, the session didn’t feature any full-contact drills or scrimmages, but it begins the process of determining who will be on the full roster when the team goes to training camp this summer. On the official team website, Mike Wobschall says some players clearly stood out during the weekend sessions:

Anthony Barr was without question a standout player during the camp. He looks every bit the part of a top 10-type of player. His combination of size and speed is what captures your attention first, but I’ve also been hearing positive things about how he’s picking up the defense. I was impressed with Bridgewater overall, but particularly with his drop back and separation from the line of scrimmage, and then his release. The entire process is quick, and I think his ability to reach the top of his drop quickly and release the ball quickly is a big reason why he was such an accurate passer and had so few passes batted down at the line of scrimmage despite being 6-2. A few others who stood out included receiver Kain Colter, safety Antone Exum, cornerback Kendall James and tight end AC Leonard.

At Vikings Corner, Daniel House discusses the strengths and weaknesses of Teddy Bridgewater’s game (keeping in mind that his resumé is all college, no meaningful NFL stats yet):

Teddy Bridgewater was easily the most accurate quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft class. He throws with nice touch in tight spaces and his arm velocity allows him to place balls in areas where only the receiver can make the play. ESPN Stats and Info recently performed a study using standardized completion percentage as the basis of argument.

[…]

Teddy Bridgewater currently holds a percentage of 78.3%, which fits perfectly behind Russell Wilson and RG3. Bridgewater held the top spot for standardized completion percentage among the 2014 NFL Draft quarterbacks. Johnny Manziel finished a close second with a 76.2% standardized completion percentage. As a whole, Teddy Bridgewater is a capable pocket passer with excellent precision passing abilities, making him one of the most pro-ready quarterbacks in this class.

Mr. Cool

Arguably one of most impressive statistics from Bridgewater is his ability to stay cool under pressure. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Bridgewater completed 53.5 % of his throws under duress in 2013, with a 7-1 ratio; he also completed 70.1% of his attempts against pass rushes of five blitzers or more. The Vikings face top tier pressure in the NFC North every week and need a quarterback that doesn’t display “happy-feet” at the first sign of pressure.

[…]

Cold-Blooded in the 4th Quarter

When tied or trailing by 7 or less in the 4th quarter during 2013, Bridgewater completed 75.0% of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 126.9. The Vikings need a quarterback who can make plays when the team needs a score late in the game. Head Coach Mike Zimmer has stressed that he is looking for a quarterback who can make plays late in the game and lead the team to victory. Bridgewater definitely has a pedigree in this area and is calm during pressure as I explained during the blitz statistic above. If Bridgewater is provided time to make a decision, he can make an athletic play down the field with his arm.

On the Move

Not only can Teddy Bridgewater make throws inside the pocket, but he is extremely functional outside the pocket. His throwing mechanics are very solid and he has been able to throw well, while rolling to his left or right with absolute ease. When he hits the outside of the pocket, he has an impressive ability to throw accurately with superior velocity into tight spaces. His ability to roll either direction in an offense allows him the chance to be effective in the play-action passing game.

May 13, 2014

The NFL’s first openly gay player

Filed under: Football, Media — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:03

Michael Sam was drafted this weekend by the St. Louis Rams. He’s the first openly gay player to be drafted by an NFL team. Back in February, I wrote:

In addition to the questions about whether Sam’s collegiate talents will be enough to allow him to flourish in the NFL, and whether a given team would welcome an openly gay team-mate in the locker room, there’s also the “Tim Tebow” problem … the team that drafts Sam will be in the unrelenting focus of the media’s publicity floodlights. Just drafting Sam would only be the start of the media’s attention. Everything to do with Sam will draw TV cameras, paparazzi, and the team’s beat writers for local media outlets.

Perhaps I misjudged the degree of ongoing interest by media outlets, as after the initial flurry of coverage, I heard very little about Michael Sam until he was actually drafted, as a photo of him kissing his boyfriend hit Twitter (and the knuckle-dragging idiots came out in droves). In February, I didn’t think Sam would be drafted, but I was wrong. However, as David Boaz points out, he was drafted far later than he would likely have been if he wasn’t “out”:

… this past weekend has reminded us that we haven’t quite achieved “opportunity to the talented.” Michael Sam was the Co-Defensive Player of the Year in the country’s strongest football conference, yet many people wondered if any NFL team would draft the league’s first openly gay player. Turns out they were right to wonder. Here’s a revealing chart published in yesterday’s Washington Post (based on data from pro-football-reference.com and published alongside this article in the print edition but apparently not online).

2014 NFL draft and Michael Sam

Every other SEC Defensive Player of the Year in the past decade, including the athlete who shared the award this year with Michael Sam, was among the top 33 picks in the draft, and only one was below number 17. Does that mean that being gay cost Michael Sam 232 places in the draft, compared to his Co-Defensive Player of the Year? Maybe not. There are doubts about Sam’s abilities at the professional level. But there are doubts about many of the players who were drafted ahead of him, in the first 248 picks this year. Looking at this chart, I think it’s hard to escape the conclusion that Sam paid a price for being openly gay. That’s why classical liberals – which in this broad sense should encompass most American libertarians, liberals, and conservatives – should continue to press for a society in which the careers are truly open to the talents. That doesn’t mean we need laws, regulations, or mandates. It means that we want to live in a society that is open to talent wherever it appears. As Scott Shackford writes at Reason, Sam’s drafting is “a significant cultural development toward a country that actually doesn’t care about individual sexual orientation. The apathetic should celebrate this development, as it is a harbinger of a future where such revelations become less and less of a big deal.” Let’s continue to look forward to a society in which it’s not news that a Jewish, Catholic, African-American, Mormon, redneck, or gay person achieves a personal goal.

Update: Draw Play Dave gets it exactly right.

May 12, 2014

Evaluating NFL team drafts

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 07:25

It’s said that you can’t evaluate a draft class until three years later, because you need at least that long to see which players have established careers and which ones are no longer in the league, rather than who won the popularity contest before the draft. Despite that, many talking heads on TV have been eagerly assigning grades to the just-concluded NFL draft, and the fans of each team eagerly follow the narrative. Even Arif Hasan has fallen victim to this temptation, although he’s at least trying to follow a methodology to determine the overall strength or weakness of each team’s 2014 draft class.

One of the interesting things about gathering Big Boards across the country and finding the different ways that evaluators grade the players is that it gives us an ability to take a look at the draft from their perspective. There’s a big stigma against “grading the draft,” that I don’t think makes a lot of sense because we’re so willing to share our opinions on the players and teams who drafted them in every other way.

It seems we can give opinions about individual players and their teams without criticism. but as soon as we summarize it in a letter grade, we’re doing something wrong and have to wait. Instead, it may be better to wait three years to judge it.

But that’s no fun, and we want feedback. We just have to acknowledge we have a high band of uncertainty and give our impressions of the draft.

But how about instead of inserting post-hoc opinions about our favorite team, we take a look at a metric we’ve already laid the groundwork for? Let’s compare a team’s draft capital to what the Big Boards accumulated said.

It’s not perfect, especially in a deep draft, but by assigning players in their rankings an amount of points equal to the trade charts’ equivalent pick value, we can find out what players are considered to be worth. Using the NFL Trade Value Chart (put together by Jimmy Johnson way back when), we can compare the amount of draft capital a team entered the draft with to the “value” of players selected. This is perhaps the most appropriate way to gauge the number of “steals” and “reaches” a team makes and quantifying.

Spoiler:

Arif's 2014 draft grades-partial

May 11, 2014

Vikings day 3 draft picks

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:05

“Trader” Rick Spielman was in full wheel-and-deal mode on Saturday, as the Vikings traded back a few times to stockpile extra picks. Despite some moaning on the part of the fan base, this is something he’s been remarkably consistent about — he likes to have about ten picks in a given draft. He’ll move up to get a particular player (like Harrison Smith in 2012, Cordarrelle Patterson in 2013, and Teddy Bridgewater this year), but in general he prefers to trade down to get more opportunities to draft players for the long term. There was a particularly persuasive article about this at Vox.com a few days back, arguing that teams should always try to maximize the number of players they draft, to increase their chance of getting players who will be around for a long time in the league:

Draft picks can be traded, and the success of any one player picked is highly uncertain. Because of that, their data says that in the current trade market, teams are always better off trading down — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones — but many teams become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the exact opposite: package several low picks for the right to take one player very early.

“There are one or two teams out there that philosophically follow this idea,” says Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams that he can’t disclose. “But in my experience, teams always say they’re on board with it in January. Then when April rolls around, and they’ve been preparing for the draft for a long time, they fall in love with players, get more and more confident in their analysis, and fall back into the same patterns.”

My only disagreement with this argument is that due to the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, there’s a discontinuity in the data at the bottom of the first round: teams get an optional fifth year on contracts with first round players. For this reason, I think Minnesota was right to trade up to get Bridgewater at the bottom of the first round, to get that option instead of waiting until they were next on the clock (which would have been eight picks later in the second round).

At the Daily Norseman, KJ Segall looks at the draft philosophy being employed by Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer:

As we agonized through the pre-draft build up, I contemplated the basic two directions the Vikings could go — solving the offense with relatively few moves, or focusing on a defense that had holes everywhere. On one hand, we needed three things to have an offense worthy of contending in the NFC North: a good quarterback, a good offensive guard, and a reliable backup running back. (Not bad when one of the things you need is a backup position.) If we fixed that, then our solid WR corps, strong Oline, and superstar RB would be giving opposing DCs nightmares… but, that would also mean that our defense would have missed out on some upgrades, and many a team might simply outscore us no matter what we could do with the ball. On the other hand, letting the offense be with the adequate Matt Cassel, Charlie Johnson, and (fill-in-the-blank backup running back), all while attempting to plug as many holes on the leaky longship that was our defense could create a relatively well-balanced team that might not scare a lot of people but could still sneak out some surprises.

So it came down to this — be mediocre across the board, or be great at one thing and weak at another. Ultimately, through FA and what has been a shockingly good draft (shockingly because when you get the hands-down best QB available at freakin’ pick 32… well, the mind, it gets blown), they basically have gone with the latter. Yes, we solved our quarterback situation beyond our wildest expectations, and our offense will in fact be much, much better this year (and it wasn’t even all that terrible last year, either). And yes, by drafting Daddy David Yankey and Jerick McKinnon, we did technically solve those other two holes- although McKinnon is most definitely a project at first, and Yankey’s ability to unseat Charlie Johnson yet remains to be seen. (Although he should hopefully do so at some point in the season.) In reality, we focused pretty heavily on defense throughout the draft, starting off with the selection of Anthony Barr. The Bridgewater awesomeness aside, it would appear that the Vikings were determined to work on the defensive upgrades made in free agency as their primary focus.

On to the actual day three picks below the fold.

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May 10, 2014

Vikings second day draft picks

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:47

Having traded away their original second round pick to Seattle to move back up to the bottom of the first round to get Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings started the evening with only two third round picks. There was some speculation about Rick Spielman trading back up into the second round, but nobody had solid ideas about which player the team might have wanted urgently enough to give up any more later round picks. Spielman later said that they’d tried to “make some movement” but that they couldn’t come up with “a deal we felt comfortable with”.

Scott ChrichtonThe Vikings selected Oregon State defensive end Scott Crichton with the first of their third round picks. The Daily Norseman‘s Eric Thompson says this was a good selection:

With many fans expecting the team to go after a corner with the 72nd overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Vikings got another talented pass rusher in Oregon State defensive end Scott Crichton. It was definitely a “value” pick — Crichton had a second round grade on most draft boards and was widely considered one of the best five or six edge rushers available in the draft. Mere moments after being chosen by the Vikings, Crichton jumped on a conference call to talk with Twin Cities beat writers.

[…]

Crichton played a little linebacker his freshman year at Oregon State, but make no mistake about it–he’ll be on the field to get after the quarterback. The Beavers ran a 4-3 defense and Crichton’s bread and butter was his pass rush. “That’s my thing. I love to get after the quarterback.” He played on both sides of the line with the Beavers along with some plays. Like most draft pundits Crichton expected to be drafted in the third round but nonchalantly claimed that the “third round’s fine”. “I’m just grateful for this opportunity. I’m ready to show what I can do and prove people wrong for not picking me earlier.”

At the press conference after the selection, Rick Spielman said “He’s not very nice on the field, which you like to see.”

Jerick McKinnonWith their last pick of the evening, the Vikings selected running back Jerick McKinnon from Georgia Southern. Arif Hasan said that McKinnon had been a stand-out performer at the combine, but that he’ll be a bit of a project (despite “insane measureables”). He’s certainly not a carbon copy of Toby Gerhart, being 5’9″ tall, weighing 209 lbs, and boasting a 4.4 time at the combine. His college football career was an odd one: started out as a cornerback, then eventually becoming a quarterback and running back (Ben Goessling refers to his role as having been “triple-option”, which is a new one on me). His role isn’t as clear-cut as you’d think, despite being drafted as a running back, during the NFL Network draft coverage, Mike Mayock said he could even start at safety in the NFL. On the official Vikings overview, his weaknesses make you think the team has other plans for him: “On the short side. Runs a bit upright and hesitant. Average burst to the perimeter. Not a creative, make-you-miss runner. Very limited career receiving production (10 career catches). Not stout in pass protection.” Those last two items are not what you’d expect if the team was planning to use McKinnon to spell Adrian Peterson on third down. Ideally, your third round running back would be an experienced receiver with good blocking skills.

With both Chrichton and McKinnon, the Vikings clearly valued their athletic potential or “upside” over more polished players with lower theoretical potential. That’s a strong indication of confidence that they can teach technique on both sides of the ball. And given the strength of the new coaching staff, that’s a sensible approach. Neither of these players is likely to start as rookies, but they both have versatility in the roles they could fill and given a year of seasoning, they could become useful parts of the puzzle down the road.

The Vikings have four picks remaining in today’s final four rounds of the draft: 145th (5th), 148th (5th), 184th (6th) and 223rd (7th) … before we account for Trader Rick’s taste for wheeling and dealing, anyway.

Update: Arif Hasan profiles Scott Chrichton and Jerick McKinnon. Arif’s always good at analysis.

May 9, 2014

Vikings make two moves in first round of the draft

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 07:51

The Vikings were busy in the NFL draft once again, as “Trader” Rick Spielman swapped first round picks with Cleveland to select linebacker Anthony Barr (gaining an extra pick in the process), then traded two later round picks for Seattle’s number 32 (the last pick in the round) to select quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Barr pick surprised me, as I thought middle linebacker would be a much higher priority, but you could make the case that Barr was the best athlete if not the best overall player available at that spot.

Linebacker Anthony Barr #11 of the UCLA Bruins sacks quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the California Golden Bears at the Rose Bowl on October 12, 2013 in Pasadena, California. Photo by Stephen Dunn, Getty Images.

Barr was one of the top linebacker prospects, despite only having played two years at that position. It’s expected that he’ll take Chad Greenway’s position on the strong side, while Greenway moves to one of the other linebacking spots.

Teddy Bridgewater of the Louisville Cardinals poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after he was picked #32 overall by the Minnesota Vikings during the first round of the 2014 NFL draft. Photo by Elsa, Getty Images.

For quite a long time in the run-up to the draft, Teddy Bridgewater was seen as not only the top quarterback prospect, but even as the top overall pick until he had a bad outing at his Pro Day, and then his stock began to drop. Each of the three top quarterbacks were linked to the Vikings in many mock drafts, but Bortles was off the board before the Vikings were on the clock, and Manziel was drafted (by Cleveland) in the second half of the round. I had thought the Vikings were more interested in Bridgewater, but many reported that the Vikings had attempted to get back into the first round to get Manziel, but that Cleveland’s extra first round pick meant they couldn’t top that offer without giving away too much. Personally, I doubt that as Manziel would have been the worst fit of the top three in Norv Turner’s offensive scheme — the skills Manziel offered were not the ones that Turner values the most in a quarterback.

One of the most impressive stats on Bridgewater is his performance against the blitz: a 70.1 percent completion rate averaging 11 yards per attempt, for 15 touchdowns and only 1 interception. That’s head-and-shoulders above the other “top two” quarterbacks. However, Rick Spielman said that there’s no expectation that he’ll start right away, and that he’ll be given time to develop behind Matt Cassel. The coaching staff will determine when he’s ready to step up.

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May 8, 2014

Minnesota Vikings’ 2014 draft needs

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 07:00

Last year, in my annual pre-draft post, I admitted once again that I have no real idea who Minnesota will select, as I don’t follow college football. I’ve been reading the fan sites’ schizophrenic swerving back and forth among the various quarterbacks (this week, Bridgewater is hot garbage, but Bortles is the bomb: last week, Manziel was the man and Bortles was nowhere, etc.), as quarterback is the most obvious long-term need for the team (likely with their first round pick, although trading back to stockpile additional picks is another alternative).

While I don’t have much of a clue about who will be drafted, I do know that the team has certain positional needs that have not yet been addressed in free agency. The Vikings made some good acquisitions during the free agency feeding frenzy, with Linval Joseph at nose tackle and Captain Munnerlyn at cornerback filling two of the biggest deficiencies in 2013. Here are the top positions that should be addressed during the draft (in my opinion, anyway):

  • Quarterback. The Vikings have the 8th pick in the first round and given the depth of the talent this year thanks to a record number of college juniors who have declared themselves eligible for the draft, the talent pool is both broad and deep. There are three quarterbacks who have received the most attention in the run-up to the draft and one or more of them may be on the board when the Vikings are on the clock. They’ve got Matt Cassel under contract for 2014 and 2015 and Christian Ponder still has a year left on his rookie deal: the team chose not to exercise their fifth-year option on Ponder’s contract. I had assumed the team was hoping to trade Ponder for a draft pick this year, which might mean spending two draft picks on quarterbacks, one early and one late. However, in a press conference on Tuesday, Rick Spielman specifically ruled out trading Ponder either before or during the draft (and we’re free to believe him or not). Several bloggers are predicting the team will use the #8 pick on a defensive player and attempt to trade back into the bottom of the first round to take a quarterback (so they get the fifth-year option on his rookie contract).
  • Middle Linebacker. I was surprised to see the Vikings re-sign Jasper Brinkley after he spent a year with Arizona. He’s good against the run, but not very good at all defending the pass. Others on the roster include fan favourite Audie Cole (he of the back-to-back pick-sixes in preseason play as a rookie), and Michael Mauti (who had three ACL tears in his college career). However, the middle linebacker may not be as important to the new defensive scheme as it was in the Tampa-2 variant the Vikings ran last year — or the responsibilities are changed enough that defending receivers isn’t a priority.
  • Safety. Harrison Smith suffered a turf toe injury last year which kept him off the field for half the season, and the team struggled with filling the gap. Andrew Sendejo improved over the season, but drafting a safety to strengthen the passing defence would be a good move.
  • Cornerback. Xavier Rhodes made great strides in his rookie season and should be a fixture on the Vikings defence for several years if he continues to develop. New free agent signing Captain Munnerlyn may fill the role Antoine Winfield did so well: outside corner in base, then switching to slot corner in nickel coverage. Josh Robinson had a truly awful year in 2013, but he was playing in the slot and had reportedly never played that position in college. Drafting an outside corner makes a lot of sense for the Vikings, and it’s another position with good depth this year.
  • Running Back. Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the game, but he’s getting to the point in his career where the vast majority of running backs start to decline. The Vikings had the luxury of a high-quality backup in Toby Gerhart, but he departed in free agency to get a chance to be a starter. With the new coaching staff, the Vikings are likely to de-emphasize the running game, so it’s unlikely the team would spend a high draft pick at this position, but a mid-round selection would make a great deal of sense.
  • Offensive Guard. The offensive line is one of the strengths of the team, but an upgrade might be in order at the left guard position. Charlie Johnson got a two-year contract to come back, but finding a rookie to be his understudy or even to replace him as a starter would make the line even better than it already is.
  • Tight End. The expensive John Carlson experiment came to a close after injuries kept Carlson off the field far too much and the team didn’t get much production for their big money investment as a result. Kyle Rudolph is very good and still improving, and Rhett Ellison does a good job of imitating Jim Kleinsasser as the big blocking tight end/H-back. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vikings invest a mid-to-late-round pick on a pass-catching tight end to pair with Rudolph.

Not on my list of priorities but a position that’s suddenly being discussed over the last few days is defensive tackle (specifically Pitt’s Aaron Donald). This might just be a side-effect of the extra two weeks of speculation caused by pushing the draft back into May, or it might indicate that the Vikings have their doubts about last year’s first rounder Sharif Floyd. Floyd played behind Kevin Williams and didn’t seem to have as much impact as you might hope for a first-round selection. While I don’t see the team spending another high pick on that position with so many other areas to address, I guess it should be considered as a possibility. I’d think trading back for more picks would be a much more likely outcome, however.

At 1500ESPN, Andrew Krammer lists the Vikings’ needs on offense and defence.

This all assumes that the Vikings stick with their current allocation of draft picks (eight, including an extra they got in the Percy Harvin trade from Seattle). There’s a strong sense that the Vikings might trade down to amass more picks in later rounds — Rick Spielman didn’t get the nickname “Trader Rick” for nothing. If they do want to move down in the first round, John Holler covered some of the possibilities (including positions I don’t think are worth a first round pick for the Vikings).

May 4, 2014

Quarterback boom or bust metrics

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:31

At the Daily Norseman, CCNorseman has been working on developing a set of metrics for determining the chances of NFL success for prospective draft picks at the quarterback position:

This past off-season I have been scouring current and past scouting reports to try to develop a metric that we can use to evaluate quarterback prospects. I started by developing a metric to evaluate the traits of successful quarterbacks. I cataloged the traits found in pre-draft scouting reports of an elite list of 25 successful quarterbacks that have been drafted since 1998, and based the metric on those traits that were most common among that pool of players. In other words, I attempted to answer the question, “What common traits did the most successful quarterbacks in the NFL have coming out of college?” Then I went back and re-evaluated the “success metric” based on excellent feedback from the readers here at the Daily Norseman. I also developed a second metric to evaluate the traits of quarterback busts. It was the same process, except that I catalogued the common traits of the 17 quarterback busts since 1998 and based the bust metric on those traits that were most common among those players. That led me to the final Boom or Bust metric, which you can also find in that second link (and is listed below). The last step in this process is what you’ll find here: verifying the accuracy of the metric. I have gone back and run the metric on quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round of past drafts to see how successful it would have been at predicting the future successes of those players. The short of it is: it’s more accurate than a random guess. It’s not fool-proof mind you, but over the course of seven drafts from 2004 through 2010, it would have accurately predicted which 1st round quarterbacks would bust and which would be serviceable or better 73% of the time. Why did I only go back to 2004? Well, I really wanted to use at least two scouting reports for every quarterback when testing the metric to ensure better accuracy, but the farther back in time I went, the harder and harder it was to find reliable scouting reports online. I wasn’t able to track down more than one reliable scouting report for the quarterbacks drafted in 2003 and earlier, so there really is no other reason than that. I stopped at 2010, because a quarterback needs at least 4 years in the league to qualify as a bust or not, and those quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and later haven’t had a full 4 years yet.

[…]

It’s worth pointing out that in this particular data set (2004-2010), the Bust Metric by itself was almost as accurate overall as the combined metric in predicting the future of these quarterbacks and was 68% accurate by itself (although they each had slightly different results on a per quarterback basis). The success metric by itself was a little less accurate, correctly predicting the future only 61% of the time. In any case listed below are the 19 first round quarterbacks drafted between 2004 and 2010, with their metric scores from their pre-draft scouting reports and pre-draft prediction. I have taken some leeway in assigning the outcome score to this. My biggest concern in all of this is to ensure that if the metric predicts the quarterback to be in the bust category that they truly are a bust. After that, we can end up splitting hairs all day about what makes a quarterback “average” or “successful” or not. In other words, if the metric predicts that a quarterback will be merely league average, but he turns out to be a successful one then I’ll still call it a win for the metric, because it didn’t predict that quarterback to bust. I think teams are mostly concerned with not having their 1st round quarterback bust (like JaMarcus Russell or Ryan Leaf), than whether or not they get a Jason Campbell versus Aaron Rodgers type. I have given each quarterback an outcome label of “yes”, “maybe” or “no”. A “maybe” label essentially means that the player has performed reasonably well, but still has enough time left in their career to qualify for their prediction label. In those cases, the quarterback receives half-credit for their outcome.

April 22, 2014

Rick Spielman and the fine art of pre-draft deception

Filed under: Business, Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:16

The last few weeks before the NFL draft — now pushed back to May — are when even the most hearty draftniks start to flag, having sweated out multiple mock drafts, read far too many scouting reports on can’t-miss players who might be their team’s guarantee of playoff dominance for the next decade, and suffered the agonies of indecision as their team’s management gives out hints of their actual draft plans. It’s a time when every team aside from the Houston Texans (who have the first overall pick) tries with varying degrees of success to obfuscate, confuse, and mislead every other team about who they value as potential draft picks. It’s the time of year when every team press release is written in squid ink.

At such a time, Minnesota football fans get to watch one of the greatest practitioners of pre-draft blather, half-truth, sleight-of-tongue, and deception as he weaves his web of disinformation. Rick Spielman is that guru of illusion at draft time, and Mark Craig is on his tail:

Folks, we’re lost in a choppy sea of predraft chatter with no life preserver and an extra two weeks of dog paddling until Houston mercifully makes the first pick on May 8. The fact that no one has any idea what will happen has not stopped everyone from saying they do.

The original draftnik himself, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., has taken four swings at it (and counting?). He has Bortles going to the Vikings twice followed by Bridgewater (once) and Manziel (once). That’s a 4-for-4 guesstimate that Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman is thinking quarterback all the way.

Meanwhile, Spielman sat in his office this week saying, “We don’t need to reach for a quarterback at No. 8. We signed Matt Cassel.” And that makes sense, although beware. This is the time of year when Spielman is capable of stealing your eyeballs and convincing you that you look better without them.

March 24, 2014

Is there a “magic formula” for drafting a winning NFL quarterback?

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:28

Short answer … no. But CCNorseman at the Daily Norseman has come up with an evaluation system that looks promising, especially as the Vikings are once again hoping to draft their QBOTF in this year’s crapshoot draft:

First, I created a list of quarterbacks to research to determine what traits they might have had in common coming out of college, both good and bad. I attempted to answer the following question: Were there certain traits that all successful quarterbacks possessed coming out of the draft, and were there any negative traits that can generally be dismissed as not being that important? As it turns out, the answer is yes to both questions.

In compiling a list of quarterbacks to study, I decided to take a look at all of the most successful quarterbacks that have entered the league within the last 15 years, regardless of the round in which they were drafted (or if they were drafted at all). I think most fans can agree that we need a quarterback that can lead the Vikings to the playoffs, and ultimately to the Super Bowl. And most quarterbacks that can achieve consistent playoff appearances or consistent efficiency metrics tend to have the best chance of winning a Super Bowl. So in order to be qualified as “successful” for this study, a quarterback must have either won a Super Bowl, have appeared in at least 10 playoff games, or be ranked in the top 32 of career “adjusted net yards per attempt” (ANY/A) statistic compared to the entire history of the NFL (ANY/A is the statistic that most closely correlates to winning and losing for quarterbacks).

[…]

In any case, from there I scoured the internet for pre-draft scouting reports of all 26 quarterbacks, and unfortunately I drew blanks on 6 of them that were drafted prior to the year 2000 (Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck). So for the remaining 20 quarterbacks that I could actually find pre-draft scouting reports online, I tracked which attributes were listed as “positive traits” and which attributes were listed as “negative traits” in the various reports. After boiling down the data I began to see which traits occurred most frequently and there were seven attributes that stood out as being the most common as they applied to more than half of the 20 quarterbacks on the list. So, here is a list of the seven most common “positive traits” that successful NFL quarterbacks on the list above possessed coming out of college:

  1. Good Pocket Awareness and mobile around the pocket with an ability to “step up” in the pocket (15 of 20 QBs possessed this trait)
  2. Smart and made good decisions with the football showing patience (14 of 20 QBs possessed this trait)
  3. Good Arm Strength or “Prototypical NFL Arm Strength” (13 of 19 QBs possessed this trait)
  4. Good Attitude, leader and fierce competitor (13 of 19 QBs possessed this trait)
  5. Has good vision, can see the field and read defenses (11 of 20 QBs possessed this trait)
  6. Good accuracy (11 of 20 QBs possessed this trait)
  7. Can throw on the run (11 of 20 QBs possessed this trait)

Some other positive traits that appeared for several of the Quarterbacks on the list (but less than half) were: good size/stature, good ability to scramble and avoid the rush, quick release, good touch passes and good ball placement and timing. But again, those traits were not common for the majority of the quarterbacks on the list with each one being common for only 8 or 9 quarterbacks, total. So in short if we can find a quarterback in the draft that exhibits most (if not all) of the seven traits above, then they will have a lot in common with the 20 most successful quarterbacks drafted over the past 15 years when they were college prospects. And therefore, they should have much better odds of panning out as a draft selection just as these prospects did before them.

He then uses these identified traits to look at current draft prospects and the results are rather different than most mock drafts portray:

In any case where does all of this leave us in regards to the quarterback prospects in the 2014 draft? Which ones are most likely to succeed? Well, in looking at the top 10 QBs from the latest cumulative draft rankings, they all possessed some of the traits above, but none of them possessed all seven (and of the 20 most successful, none of them possessed all 7 coming out of college either). In order to determine with traits were more important, I assigned a point system to each one relative to their frequency in the scouting reports. Below is the point scale.

QB Traits Point Scale
Trait #1, Good Pocket Awareness: 7 points
Trait #2, Good decision making: 6 Points
Trait #3, Good arm strength: 5 Points
Trait #4, Leader and good attitude: 5 Points
Trait #5, Can read defenses: 4 Points
Trait #6, Good accuracy: 4 Points
Trait #7, Can throw on the run: 4 Points
Total: 35 Points Possible

If a quarterback had one of the traits listed above as a positive, they earned that many points. However, if it was listed as a negative part of their game, then I subtracted that many points from their total. If one of these traits simply wasn’t listed as a positive or a negative, then it didn’t count for or against them. Listed below are the seven quarterbacks that scored double digit points based on this rating metric.

It won’t surprise anyone that Christian Ponder’s score using this scale comes out as a magnificent -2 (yes, that’s a negative number). If this scoring system was in use at Winter Park in the coming draft, the Vikings would end up drafting Derek Carr, Fresno State (score 28 out of 35) or Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois (who scores 27 out of 35).

March 15, 2014

How the Vikings free agency moves change their draft plans

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:13

The Minnesota Vikings have been active in the free agency market — uncharacteristically so, according to some fans — and have addressed some of the most glaring needs through re-signing key free agents of their own and picking up other teams’ free agents as well. Before free agency started, the team ranked almost last in every meaningful defensive metric (points given up, yards given up, etc.), and defensive collapses at the end of several games almost literally made the difference between going to the playoffs in 2012 and finishing in the cellar in 2013. A rational drafting policy would have been to use the draft to plug many of the leaks, but instead the team has used free agency to patch most of them so that — with one big exception — they’re free to take the best available player in the draft.

Unfortunately, the big exception is the quarterback position. Matt Cassel has come back, giving the Vikings stability at QB, but he’s not the long-term answer. He can start (and win), but he’s only under contract for 2014 and 2015. He can, however, act as a mentor for a younger player if the Vikings can find the right draft prospect to groom. That’s more black art than science, as the number of accomplished college quarterbacks who sink without a trace in the NFL clearly demonstrates. Cassel gives the Vikings the luxury of not having to start a rookie, but they need to be lucky on their selection (in the way they weren’t with Christian Ponder).

At the Daily Norseman, K.J. Segall looks at how the Vikings free agent signings will impact their draft strategy:

So what does all of this mean for the upcoming draft? While Spielman’s reputation in free agency was that of a ‘wait and see’ approach, conversely he’s been seen — particularly in the past two drafts — as an extremely aggressive wheeler-and-dealer, netting five first round picks (Kalil, Smith, Floyd, Rhodes, and Patterson) in just two years. But just because that’s been his reputation doesn’t necessarily mean that that’s exactly how he will always approach the draft. To his great credit the aggressive moves for five first round picks have also netted five very solid starters (or, in Floyd’s case, future starters), with nary a bust amongst them. This indicates that he is aggressive only when he and his scout team have identified a target that the team needs, and further indicates that their ability to pick these targets is quite good. Which, of course, further means that he won’t be aggressive unless such a target is available.

In a draft such as the upcoming one, seen as deep at several important positions and with the Vikings having the number 8 overall pick, there is a strong possibility that Spielman will want to swap down and garner more selections. He’s said as much — of course, if you believe Spielman right now, well, then I have a bridge for sale that I’d LOVE to discuss with you.

[…]

While any attempts to read into Spielman’s intended draft strategy beforehand are inevitably going to be half-correct at best (nobody saw a trade down with the Browns in 2012 coming), perhaps we can begin to clarify some likely paths he’s going to take via his actions in free agency.

As it stands right now, you can cross basically any D-line position off our list of needs. That’s not to say we couldn’t use — and won’t pursue — a little more depth, but it’s not very high up there anymore. Furthermore you can bump CB down a bit — it’s still a need, mind you, but not as big as it was before when we basically needed two more starting caliber players as well as depth. The aforementioned QB situation is still glaring, as is LB and OG. (I would list needs starting with those three, in that order.) I don’t see safety being a concern, as Sanford is likely safe for another year — not to mention decent depth like Sendejo in that department. (Sanford… the safety… is safe. See what I did there? Please tell me you saw what I did there.)

He discusses at some length the potential trade-up from the number 8 pick, including the option of trading future draft picks, but if there’s any team in the NFL less likely to go big on a trade like that it’s the team that got the short end of the stick in the infamous Herschel Walker trade (read ’em and weep, or laugh like a manaic if you’re a Cowboys fan).

April 28, 2013

Vikings picks on the third day of the draft

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:34

I was off in wine country yesterday, attending a meeting of the Toronto, Hamilton & Buffalo Railway Historical Society, so I didn’t follow the draft closely. And even if I had, as I’ve mentioned before, I don’t have much information about college football players (especially in the later rounds), so my interest was more along the lines of how the Vikings drafted to fill needs on their roster rather than on the actual individual players.

In the first day of the draft, the Vikings picked up defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, and wide receiver Cordarelle Patterson. To get Patterson, they traded all their second day picks plus a seventh rounder to the New England Patriots. Some fans were eager to see GM Rick Spielman somehow pull another rabbit out of the hat and trade back into the third round to grab a middle linebacker, but they were disappointed as the Vikings only monitored the second day activities and updated their draft board for the final day.

With their first pick on Saturday, the Vikings selected Penn State linebacker Gerald Hodges with pick 120. Brief profile from Tom Pelissero’s draft class roundup:

A converted safety, Hodges (6-1, 243) looks like a classic Tampa-2 will linebacker — small, fast enough and at his best in space. He’ll primarily compete for time outside and could get a look in the middle, too.

Next was punter Jeff Locke from UCLA, taken in the fifth round with the 155th pick. This is a clear shot across the bows of incumbent punter Chris Kluwe, and the second year in a row that the team has drafted a specialist despite having a high-quality veteran already on the roster.

A left-footer, Locke (6-0, 209) also handled kickoffs in college, though he won’t do that here. He immediately becomes the favorite to beat out veteran incumbent Chris Kluwe, who says he wants to compete for the job but may not even make it to camp.

The sixth round pick was UCLA guard Jeff Baca:

An aggressive blocker with some impressive physical traits, Baca (6-3, 302) split his 45 college starts between guard and tackle. He played some center at the East-West Shrine Game and figures to compete at the three inside positions.

Arif Hasan has a longer profile of Baca here.

In the seventh round, the Vikings had three picks, starting with another Penn State linebacker, this time Michael Mauti:

A productive outside linebacker whose father, Rich, played eight NFL seasons as a receiver, Mauti (6-2, 243) is coming off his third torn ACL in four years. He projects as a mike in the NFL and will compete at the Vikings’ most unsettled position once he’s fully healed.

Christopher Gates’ profile of Mauti here.

Followed by North Carolina guard Travis Bond:

A mammoth inside presence who has dealt with weight issues, Bond (6-6, 329) could get a chance to compete at both guard and tackle.

Christopher Gates on Bond here.

And finally Florida State defensive tackle Everett Dawkins:

A smallish three-technique, Dawkins (6-2, 292) enters an uphill battle competing for a spot behind Williams, Floyd and Christian Ballard.

Arif Hasan’s profile of Dawkins is here.

(more…)

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