Adrian Peterson will officially become an unrestricted free agent on March 9th, after the Minnesota Vikings chose not to exercise a contact option for the 2017 season. Even if Peterson had played in every game for the last couple of seasons, his salary was way out of synch with the rest of the league, as this Pro Football Talk summary suggests (published before the Peterson announcement):
Under the 2011 CBA, the non-exclusive franchise tenders are determined based not on what any one player made in 2016 or will make in 2017, but on the five-year average of the percentage that the tenders for each position consume under the total cap. For running backs, the 2017 franchise tender will equate to 7.257 percent of the overall cap. At a salary cap of $165 million, that’s a tender of $11.9 million.
NFL Network has suggested that a decision by the Vikings to cut Adrian Peterson will cause that number to drop to $8 million. It won’t. Peterson’s $18 million cap number for 2017 is relevant only to the exclusive tag, which is based on the average of the five highest cap numbers at the position the coming year.
Via Spotrac.com, the five highest running back cap numbers for 2017 belong to Peterson, Bills running back LeSean McCoy ($8.875 million), Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart ($8.25 million), Texans running back Lamar Miller ($6.5 million), and Titans running back DeMarco Murray ($6.25 million). Even with Peterson’s $18 million, the next four drag the average down to $9.5 million If Peterson is cut, Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles replaced Peterson at No. 5, with a cap number of $6.187 million. That reduces the average to $7.2 million.
The best indication that Peterson was going to be overpaid this season is that removing his contract from the franchise tender calculation drops the league number from $11.9 million to only $7.2 million. There’s no doubt that Peterson has been a great running back for the Vikings, but his contributions had been in a steady decline since he won the league rushing title in 2015.
For the Vikings, moving on from Peterson nearly doubles their available salary cap space to around $40 million for signing free agents. Of course, given the Swiss-cheese nature of the offensive line in 2016, a lot of that space could legitimately be devoted to bringing in guards and tackles (even before we look at re-signing any of our own free agents).
At 1500ESPN, Matthew Coller calls for a new “franchise face”:
What’s best for the Vikings’ party is the only thing that should matter. And what’s best for the Vikings is to find their next running back in this year’s draft or free agency.
You can understand why the team might believe that the rules of the age curve don’t apply to Peterson. Very few running backs in NFL history have done the things that Peterson has, a la clearing 2,000 yards, averaging 6.0 Yards Per Carry, leading the league in rushing at age 30 and on and on.
But look at it this way: Peterson has already been defying the age curve for several years. How much longer can he do it? Looking at some of history’s best running backs, it’s almost impossible to tell when they will hit that wall. Some of the greats have lasted into their 30s like Curtis Martin, who led the NFL in rushing at 31, but many others have dropped off suddenly. Can the Vikings really risk having Peterson going through a Shaun Alexander-like slide?
For the team, the hardest part of moving on from Peterson certainly won’t be finding a running back who can average 4.5 Yards Per Carry, as AP did in 2015, it will be saying goodbye to the face of the franchise – the player most associated with the Vikings over the past decade.
Who is that face now? Who is the player that will immediately come to mind for football fans across the nation with the Vikings’ franchise is mentioned? Who will get attention on ESPN highlight reels?
It isn’t the most logical reason for bringing a player back, but that type of relevance is probably tough to walk away from. Especially when there isn’t an heir apparent.
This decision would probably be easier if Teddy Bridgewater was healthy and coming off a good season. Turn the keys over to the young QB. Done. But nobody knows if Bridgewater will play again or if Sam Bradford will sign a long-term extension. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are both excellent receivers, but they aren’t likely to gain AP-like attention, even if they both have great 2017 seasons. Maybe a running back in the draft will be that guy, maybe he won’t.
Unfortunately the Vikings’ choice can’t be based on the past or stardom or relevance or hope that Peterson be 100% healthy and find 2012 again. It should be based on cold facts.
Like the fact that Pat Shurmur’s offense is probably better suited to have multiple duel-threat running backs instead of a one-dimensional running. Like the fact that Peterson’s Yards Per Carry have been drifting South over his past couple hundred carries. Like the fact that his past suggests it will be problematic if he isn’t the centerpiece of the offense.
