Quotulatiousness

October 12, 2013

Not news: people under-report calorie intake, invalidating 40 years of federal research

Filed under: Food, Health, Science — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:47

Any study that depends on self-reporting, especially self-reporting on things like how much food they eat, can’t be assumed to be accurate:

Four decades of nutrition research funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may be invalid because the method used to collect the data was seriously flawed, according to a new study by the Arnold School of Public Health at the University of South Carolina.

The study, led by Arnold School exercise scientist and epidemiologist Edward Archer, has demonstrated significant limitations in the measurement protocols used in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The findings, published in PLOS ONE (The Public Library of Science), reveal that a majority of the nutrition data collected by the NHANES are not “physiologically credible,” Archer said.

[…]

The study examined data from 28,993 men and 34,369 women, 20 to 74 years old, from NHANES I (1971 — 1974) through NHANES (2009 — 2010), and looked at the caloric intake of the participants and their energy expenditure, predicted by height, weight, age and sex. The results show that — based on the self-reported recall of food and beverages — the vast majority of the NHANES data “are physiologically implausible, and therefore invalid,” Archer said.

In other words, the “calories in” reported by participants and the “calories out,” don’t add up and it would be impossible to survive on most of the reported energy intakes. This misreporting of energy intake varied among participants, and was greatest in obese men and women who underreported their intake by an average 25 percent and 41 percent (i.e., 716 and 856 Calories per-day respectively).

Souhan’s steps to turning the Viking ship around

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 09:31

In the Star Tribune, Jim Souhan has a few suggestions for head coach Leslie Frazier and general manager Rick Spielman that might just set the Vikings on course for a playoff berth this year:

1. Transition to Josh Freeman as quickly as possible.

Even when Christian Ponder was at his best, he didn’t take full advantage of defenses crowding the line of scrimmage to stop Adrian Peterson. Matt Cassel, while playing well last week, didn’t even take full advantage because he threw inaccurately on deep routes.

Whatever his flaws, Freeman is willing and able to throw deep, and he is working with quality receivers. If the Vikings can force defenses to choose between stopping Peterson and stopping the deep passing game, the offense could become unstoppable.

2. Keep Peterson on the field.

[…]

3. Find a role for Patterson.

It’s simplistic to say that rookie receiver Cordarrelle Patterson should be on the field all the time. Peterson is most productive when running behind fullback Jerome Felton. Kyle Rudolph is a Pro Bowl tight end. Greg Jennings should be the No. 1 receiver, and Jerome Simpson has made the most of his opportunities this season. Put Patterson on the field, and either Felton, Rudolph or Simpson has to come off.

While playing Patterson for a tremendous number of snaps might not make sense, getting him the ball more often when he takes the field is common sense. At the very least, Patterson should be on the field when Felton is not. Patterson might be the second-most-spectacular athlete on the roster, after Peterson. He should play a larger role.

4. Put Bishop on the field.

Vikings linebackers are having a terrible season as a whole. Desmond Bishop might not be the player he once was, he may not even be an every-down linebacker, but he’s good enough to start for this defense.

5. Put Rhodes on the field.

Josh Robinson should not be starting at cornerback in the NFL. Rookie Xavier Rhodes might make some mistakes if he replaces Robinson as a starter, but he’s a superior athlete who will also make positive plays. Robinson is the weakest link on what has been a mediocre defense.

This is a season of positional turmoil for the Vikings, and some areas where the team has traditionally had solid play are much weaker than anyone expected. The whole defence has taken a few steps back and even the strong individual performers are not as good this year as in previous seasons (Harrison Smith, Chad Greenway, even Jared Allen and Kevin Williams). Cornerback Josh Robinson has been cover-your-eyes awful in coverage … almost everything thrown his way gets caught, and often for big gains. Marcus Sherels, who most people assumed only made the team due to his special team work, has been one of the most efficient defensive backs this year, but he’s one of the few bright spots on the defensive roster. Xavier Rhodes has played hot and cold, but he’s certainly demonstrated that he should be ahead of Robinson on the depth chart. Chris Cook is — all together now — coming back from injury, and it’s not clear if he’ll be healthy soon.

I realize that Leslie Frazier has a strong desire to protect his veteran players and bring rookies up to speed gradually, but Patterson and Rhodes have certainly played well enough so far to earn more playing time. I don’t know that Bishop is as solid, but the linebackers are another group not playing up to expectations … let’s find out if Bishop can return to his earlier form.

Afghan troops and abandoned tribal traditions

Filed under: Asia, Weapons — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:01

Strategy Page explains why Afghan soldiers will not be giving up the “spray and pray” combat style any time soon:

While Afghans admire the superior fighting ability of NATO troops, they have a difficult time adopting the equipment and techniques that make these foreigners more lethal and less vulnerable on the battlefield. The problem is that most Afghans are still basically tribal warriors at heart. In a battle even those with good shooting skills will fire wildly and move about with more spirit than sense. The average Afghan, brought up to follow the traditional warrior traditions, is not trained to carry out a lot of smart battlefield moves and is easily panicked. The Pushtun tribesmen of this part of the world have a tradition of fleeing a lost battle and not fighting to the last man. Thus, if you can make the Afghans think they are about to be surrounded by superior forces they will flee. U.S. and Afghan government forces not only have better training and leadership but also know these traditional tribal tactics and how best to exploit them.

The problem NATO trainers and advisors have is that too many Afghan troops and police will, under the stress of combat, revert back to their tribal ways. That means going head-to-head with the enemy for a shootout and maybe even some hand-to-hand action. The NATO advisors who accompany most Afghan battalions, to observe how well the training is used and advise on how to deal with problems, find that the Afghan commanders and NCOs have a hard time stopping their troops from going old school and often just go along with it. This despite the fact that the Afghan commanders are smart guys and are well aware of how much more effective the Western tactics are. But the Afghan commanders also realize that once most foreign troops are gone at the end of 2014, there may be no more NATO air support and it may take a while before the Afghan Air Force can provide much smart bomb capability. So it makes some sense to develop tactics that combine Western and Afghan methods. The NATO advisors are thinking short term while the Afghan commanders are taking the long view.

[…]

The decline of the traditional Afghan marksmanship dates back three decades. Back before the Russians showed up in 1979, the best weapon an Afghan could hope to have was a World War II, or World War I, era bolt action rifle. These weapons were eclipsed in the 1980s by a lot of free (for Afghans fighting the invading Russians) AK-47s and the RPG rocket launchers. The young guys took to the AK-37 and the thrill of emptying a 30 round magazine on full automatic. Not bad for a brief firefight and suddenly hardly anyone, except a few old timers, wanted to use the old bolt action rifle or learn how to hit anything with single shots. The RPG rocket launcher became the favored way to take out long-distance (up to 500 meters) targets. It was portable artillery for the tribal warrior and great fun for a warrior to use.

It was not noticed much outside of Afghanistan that this shift in weaponry brought to an end a long Afghan tradition of precision, long range shooting. Before the 1980s, this skill was treasured for both hunting and warfare. When doing neither, Afghan men played games centered on marksmanship. One, for example, involved a group of men chipping in and buying a goat. The animal was then tethered to a rock, often on a hill, and then the half dozen or so men moved several hundred meters away and drew lots to see who would fire in what order. The first man to drop the goat won it. Since Afghanistan was the poorest nation in Asia, ammo was expensive, and older men taught the young boys all the proper moves needed to get that first shot off accurately and make it count.

Not quite as I remember it (from hiding behind the settee in the living room)

Filed under: Britain, Media — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 00:01

Published on 10 Oct 2013

Trailer for the newly-recovered and remastered Patrick Troughton Doctor Who episode The Enemy of the World. Unseen in the UK for 45 years, and formerly considered missing, The Enemy of the World sees Troughton play the dual-role of the Doctor and also Salamander – the “saviour of the world”. Or is he… Also starring Frazer Hines as Jamie and Deborah Watling as Victoria.

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