Megan McArdle explains why a recent study’s results may be much more important than you might gather from the way it’s been reported so far:
Bombshell news out of Oregon today: a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) of what happens to people when they gain Medicaid eligibility shows no impact on objective measures of health. Utilization went up, out-of-pocket expenditure went down, and the freqency of depression diagnoses was lower. But on the three important health measures they checked that we can measure objectively — glycated hemoglobin, a measure of blood sugar levels; blood pressure; and cholesterol levels — there was no significant improvement.
I know: sounds boring. Glycated hemoglobin! I might as well be one of the adults on Charlie Brown going wawawawawawa . . . and you fell asleep, didn’t you?
But this is huge news if you care about health care policy — and given the huge national experiment we’re about to embark on, you’d better. Bear with me.
Some of the news reports I’ve seen so far are somewhat underselling just how major these results are.
“Study: Medicaid reduces financial hardship, doesn’t quickly improve physical health” says the Washington Post.
The Associated Press headline reads “Study: Depression rates for uninsured dropped with Medicaid coverage”
At the New York Times, it’s “Study Finds Expanded Medicaid Increases Health Care Use”
I think Slate is closer to the mark, though a bit, well, Slate-ish: “Bad News for Obamacare: A new study suggests universal health care makes people happier but not healthier.”
This study is a big, big deal. Let me explain why.
