Quotulatiousness

October 4, 2012

Claim: more women die of domestic violence than cancer

Filed under: Law, USA — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 12:43

A friend of mine posted this claim on Twitter earlier today and it struck me as being incredibly unlikely. A quick Google search turns up the following numbers for causes of death in the United States in 2009 (total 2,437,163):

  • Heart disease: 599,413
  • Cancer: 567,628
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 137,353
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,842
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 118,021
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 79,003
  • Diabetes: 68,705
  • Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,692
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 48,935
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 36,909

If we assume that exactly half the reported deaths from cancer are women, that says 283,814 women died of various forms of cancer in 2009. How does that stack up against the murder statistics (which would include domestic violence along with all other killings)?

13,636

One of these numbers is not like the other (and of the reported 13,636 homicides, 77% of the victims were male).

This is not to diminish the dangers of domestic violence, but throwing out numbers as my friend did doesn’t actually help the situation.

Here’s a reality TV show that should exist

Filed under: Humour, Media, Politics, USA — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 12:20

At Marginal Revolution, Alex Tabarrok has a pitch for a new reality TV show that deserves a chance:

I suggest a game show, So You Think You Can Be President? SYTYCBP would have at least three segments.

Coase it Out: Presidential candidates have 12 hours to get a bitterly divorcing couple to divide their assets in a mutually agreeable manner. (Bonus points are awarded if the candidate convinces the couple to stay together.)

Game Theory: Candidates compete in a game of Diplomacy. I would also include several ringers — say Robin Hanson, Bryan Caplan and Salma Hayek. Why these three? Robin is cold, calculating and merciless — make a logical mistake and he will make you pay. Bryan is crafty and experienced. And Salma? I couldn’t refuse her anything but presidents should be made of stronger stuff so we need a test.

Spot the Fraud: Presidential candidates are provided with an economic scenario (mortgage defaults are up, hedge funds are crashing, liquidity is tight). Three experts propose plans. The candidate must choose one of the plans. After the candidate chooses, the true identities of the “experts” are revealed. One is a trucker, another a scuba diver instructor and the last a distinguished economist. Which did the candidate choose?

Entertaining? Check. Correlated with important skills for governing? Check. Can the voters tell who the winner is? Check.

“Reality TV may even be the next stage in the evolution of television”

Filed under: Media, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:42

Grant McCracken goes ultra-contrarian in this article at Wired:

It’s easy to assume reality TV is the place where bad TV went to hide when the rest of TV got a lot better. Like that old Wild West town where criminals congregate, reality TV is often perceived as the last, “vast wasteland”: uncouth, desperate, lawless.

But while some shows seem irredeemably bad (Here Comes Honey Boo Boo, anyone?), others offer an indication of good things to come. In fact, by turning all of us into virtual anthropologists, reality TV may lead to the improvement – dare I say it – of Western civilization. Reality TV may even be the next stage in the evolution of television.

In its early days, TV was confronted with a series of problems. It was a new medium struggling to find a place in the world. It had quality-control problems in sound and image. And it was talking to millions of American for whom English was a second language and American culture was still a mystery. TV solved these problems by relying on genre. Once you understood you were watching a “cop show” or a “Western,” the rest was easy.

Genre was like a cheat sheet. It flattened every difficulty: technical, intellectual, cultural, linguistic.

Why EU politicians love the idea of a Financial Transaction Tax

Filed under: Economics, Europe — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:31

Tim Worstall explains why politicians love the notion of an FTT, and why all the benefits claimed for imposing an FTT are not going to happen:

Large numbers of people have convinced themselves that a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) would be a really very good idea indeed. It would make the banks pay for the problems they’ve caused, it would lower speculation and thus lower volatility, it would raise a lovely large amount of money that can be spent on good causes and anyway, there are a number of FTTs around and they’ve not caused any problems, have they?

Politically this is of course quite wonderful. Lots of money to pay for things and it’s the banks that have to cough up? We’ll get tens, no hundreds of billions and none of us will really have to pay any of it? Let’s tax the other guy usually does gain public support after all.

The thing is, all of the stated joys of this tax are in fact untrue. I’m rather involved in this as I prepared evidence for the House of Lords on the point (evidence which I’m glad to say heavily influenced their final report). Other submissions also pointed to posts on this very blog here at Forbes in support of various points. Finally, this formed the basis of my one and only peer reviewed paper to date. You might say that I’m more involved in this story than I am in most.

The thing is, those four things which campaigners for the FTT say are the good things about it all turn out to be untrue. Firstly and most obviously, banks are companies and companies never pay tax. It’s always some combination of customers, workers and shareholders who do: for only a real human being can bear the burden of a tax. As to speculation, more speculation lowers price volatility so reducing speculation will increase volatility, not reduce it. An FTT would crimp economic growth and thus would reduce total tax revenue, not increase it and finally, we do indeed have several FTTs currently and also know that they crimp economic growth and thus reduce total tax revenue.

All of these things have been explained by all of the serious people (plus me, who you can regard as serious or not as you wish) who have looked at the question. And yet governments continue to sign up for what they keep being told is a seriously bad idea. They’ve even been told this in terms simple enough for a politician to understand.

The zero-sum trading myth

Filed under: Business, Cancon, China, Economics — Tags: — Nicholas @ 09:44

In Maclean’s, Stephen Gordon decries the undying myth that if one party to a trade is benefitting then the other must be losing:

In The Myth of the Rational Voter, Bryan Caplan argues that the most important obstacles to implementing sound economic policies are not lobby groups or the ability of other special interests to influence politicians, but certain systemic, irrational beliefs of the electorate. This is hardly an encouraging conclusion, but if we needed any more evidence for at least one aspect of his thesis, the CNOOC-Nexen takeover is providing it.

One of the prejudices identified by Caplan is what he calls anti-foreign bias: “a tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of interaction with foreigners.” According to popular (mis)perception, dealing with foreigners is to be mistrusted: if they want something from us, then they must perceive some benefit from the exchange. And if foreigners are gaining, then Canadians must be losing.

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