Quotulatiousness

July 30, 2012

Pre-season rankings: lies, damned lies, plus statistics

Filed under: Football, Media — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:40

Even the most rabid Vikings fan isn’t really expecting a SuperBowl run this year: climbing from a 3-13 season to 8-8 would be a very significant improvement, and an honest fan would say that would be acceptable. Squeaking into the playoffs might be possible, except that the Vikings play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, so you’d need to be dangerously optimistic to expect that outcome.

That being said, the Vikings are getting no respect at all from the various pre-season ranking experts in the media. Christopher Gates explains why you shouldn’t pay too much attention to forecasts like the one published recently in Pro Football Weekly:

Ugh, there is so much wrong here, I’m not even sure where to start. . .but I’ll try.

– According to PFW, the Vikings’ defensive line (which tied for the NFL lead in sacks in 2011 and is led by the guy that probably should have been Defensive Player of the Year last season) is just as good as the Vikings’ secondary … a unit that allowed the second-highest passer rating against in NFL history, went nearly ten full games without an interception (setting an NFL record in the process), and allowed more touchdown passes than any team in the league last year. Yep … the same.

– Not only that, but the Vikings’ secondary is (according to PFW) just as good as Green Bay’s secondary. Yes, the Packers allowed the most passing yards in a season in NFL history in 2011 and only allowed five fewer TD passes than Minnesota did (34 to 29). The Packers also intercepted twenty-three more passes than the Vikings did (31 to 8) despite collecting about half as many sacks (50 for Minnesota, 29 for Green Bay) and their passer rating allowed was a full 27 points lower (107.6 for Minnesota, 80.6 for Green Bay). According to Pro Football Weekly? The secondaries are basically interchangeable. Seriously.

– Is Minnesota’s defensive line that much worse than Detroit’s, to the point where the Lions get an A- and the Vikings get the aforementioned C+? I really don’t think so. In fact, until Nick Fairley can become known for something other than personal fouls (in college) and getting arrested (since reaching the NFL), I fail to see where Detroit’s front four is better than Minnesota’s at all. (Sure, I’m biased … but come on.)

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