{"id":96245,"date":"2025-06-26T03:00:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T07:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=96245"},"modified":"2025-06-25T11:38:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T15:38:52","slug":"nato-members-commit-to-a-new-5-defence-spending-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2025\/06\/26\/nato-members-commit-to-a-new-5-defence-spending-target\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO members &#8220;commit&#8221; to a new 5% defence spending target"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As many predicted, just as Canada finally gets around to at least pretending to meet the 2% defence spending target we agreed to over a decade ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.steynonline.com\/15405\/harmony-and-understanding\" target=\"_blank\">those goalposts get moved<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right; padding: 0px 0px 10px 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-480x240.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"240\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-53416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-480x240.png 480w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-150x75.png 150w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo.png 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>So today the leaders of Nato convene for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-nato-defense-spending-spain\/\" target=\"_blank\">a landmark summit<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><span align=\"center\"><strong>NATO countries agree to increase defence spending to 5%<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>That headline isn&#8217;t strictly accurate. Member states have apparently agreed to commit to a target of 5% by 2035, to mark the start of the fourteenth anniversary of the Ukraine war. Which means that, as always with Nato, they&#8217;ll all look butch at the photo-op, and then they&#8217;ll do bugger all. Even the &#8220;commitment&#8221; to a &#8220;target&#8221; is too much for Spain, which has secured an opt-out.<\/p>\n<p>But hang on a minute: Nato has been at war &mdash; or at proxy-war &mdash; with Russia for three-and-a-half years now. So it&#8217;s been on a war-footing, supposedly, for seven-eighths of the length of the First World War. How&#8217;s that war-footing going? Per Nato&#8217;s head honcho, Mark Rutte (the woeful former Dutch PM &mdash; ask our pal Eva Vlaardingerbroek), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2025\/06\/04\/russia-developing-multiples-more-ammunition-than-nato-says-secretary-general\" target=\"_blank\">earlier this month<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<p><em>The Russian army is developing its war capabilities by multiple times more than that of NATO despite having an economy 25 times smaller, NATO&#8217;s secretary general has warned &#8230;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;The Russians, as we speak are reconstituting themselves at a rapid pace and producing four times more ammunition in three months than the whole of NATO in a year,&#8221; said Rutte.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That&#8217;s a rather confusing way of putting it; what he means is: the Russians (who, as Mark Levin assures us, &#8220;scare nobody&#8221;) produce more ammunition in three weeks than the whole of Nato does in a year. Can even Nato be that worthless?<\/p>\n<p>Taking the Secretary-General at his word, if you&#8217;re wondering why the Pentagon has to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/01\/17\/us\/politics\/ukraine-israel-weapons.html\" target=\"_blank\">divert ammo marked for Israel to Ukraine<\/a> and then <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kyivpost.com\/post\/54565\" target=\"_blank\">divert it back from Ukraine to Israel<\/a> &#8230; well, let&#8217;s do what everybody else does and dredge up the only historical analogy anybody knows &mdash; not the First World War, but the Second (see Levin&#8217;s &#8220;Iranian Nazi regime&#8221;): We&#8217;re asked to believe that Nato needs longer than the US was in the Second World War for to move to a war-production footing.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, supply chains are always difficult: Iran&#8217;s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz could have seriously impacted McDonald&#8217;s need to recall the hash browns it sent to Montenegro and divert them to Kiribati.<\/p>\n<p>Trump gets something very basic: Flying the highest of high-tech weaponry seven thousand miles to drop down a ventilation shaft opening the size of a dishwasher is the kind of brilliant, dazzling one-off only the United States can do. But what next? Almost all geopolitical conflicts start with a bit of shock-&#038;-awe (Pearl Harbor, even the assassination of the Archduke) and then dwindle down to old-school wars of attrition &#8211; as the United States should certainly know after taking twenty years to lose to goatherds with fertiliser, and three years to lose to &#8220;a gas station masquerading as a country&#8221; (thank you, John McCain). In wars of attrition, old-fashioned unglamorous things become important, like the ability to manufacture bullets in a timely manner. The basic arithmetical calculations are not complex: Don&#8217;t get into a long war with an enemy whose stock of long-range ballistic missiles outnumbers your surface-to-air missiles.<\/p>\n<p>So Trump had the narrowest window of opportunity, and used it.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side, the last week-and-a-half mostly revealed the shallowness of the War Party. You&#8217;ll recall, for example, that Ted Cruz got into a spat with Tucker over the actual population of Iran. Last week, a UK podcast had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=U9BnM6qGBb8\" target=\"_blank\">a brief discussion on The <em>US Army-Marine Corps Counter-Insurgency Field Manual<\/em><\/a>, which notes the following (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.glencanning.com\/vivelecanada\/290.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">foot of page xxvi<\/a>):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<p><em>The troop demands are significant. The manual&#8217;s recommendation is a minimum of twenty counterinsurgents per 1,000 residents.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That&#8217;s roughly what the British had in Malaya. Which they won, by the way. Twenty-two years ago, a couple of weeks after the fall of Saddam, I stopped on the shoulder of the main western highway from Jordan to Baghdad to fill up from an enterprising Iraqi who&#8217;d retrieved some supplies from a looted petrol station and was anxious to sell them to any passing Canadian tourists. As he was topping off, I asked him how agreeable he found the western soldiery. He grinned a big toothless grin and pointed to a chopper that had just come up over the horizon to hover above our heads. Then he said: &#8220;Americans only in the sky.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We did not win that one, you&#8217;ll recall. Instead, we created an Iranian client-state.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s why Ted Cruz&#8217;s breezy indifference when Tucker asked him the population of Iran was so revealing. The senator told Tucker that it doesn&#8217;t matter whether the population of Iran is eighty million or a hundred million. Really?<\/p>\n<p>Because, per the Pentagon&#8217;s own field manual, the latter figure would require finding an extra 400,000 troops. Oh, wait. If it&#8217;s a Nato mission, the other members could muster 127 guys between them, so it would only require 399,873 extra Americans.<\/p>\n<p>Even if the public were minded to put one-and-a-half million pairs of boots on the ground, it couldn&#8217;t do it. &#8220;Americans only in the sky&#8221; equals what an Australian prime minister told me, after a flying visit to the troops in Afghanistan, was &#8220;the Crusader fort mentality&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn&#8217;t work. The political divide in America is between, crudely, Trumpians and neocons. The former are anti-war; the latter are pro-war &#8230; but a way of war that doesn&#8217;t work.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As many predicted, just as Canada finally gets around to at least pretending to meet the 2% defence spending target we agreed to over a decade ago, those goalposts get moved: So today the leaders of Nato convene for a landmark summit: NATO countries agree to increase defence spending to 5% That headline isn&#8217;t strictly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,62,5,13],"tags":[697,1037,287,291,1066,220,726],"class_list":["post-96245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cancon","category-europe","category-military","category-usa","tag-budget","tag-donaldtrump","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-logistics","tag-nato","tag-ukraine"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2hpV6-p2l","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96245"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96247,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96245\/revisions\/96247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}