{"id":93492,"date":"2025-01-13T03:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T08:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=93492"},"modified":"2025-01-12T12:50:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-12T17:50:31","slug":"the-thucydides-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2025\/01\/13\/the-thucydides-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"The “Thucydides Trap”"},"content":{"rendered":"

At History Does You<\/em>, Secretary of Defense Rock<\/a> provides a handy explanation of the term “the Thucydides Trap”:<\/p>\n

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In the world of international relations, few concepts have captured as much attention \u2014 and sparked as much debate \u2014 as the “Thucydides Trap”. Brought to prominence by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, the term suggests that conflict is almost inevitable when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, a dynamic often invoked to frame the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. Lauded as a National Bestseller and praised by figures like Henry Kissinger and Joe Biden, Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?<\/em> has become a staple of policy discussions and academic syllabi. Yet beneath the widespread acclaim lies a deeply flawed analysis, one that risks oversimplifying history and perpetuating a fatalistic narrative that could shape policy in dangerous ways. Far from an inescapable destiny, the lessons of history and the nuances of modern geopolitics suggest that the so-called “trap” may be more myth than inevitability.<\/p>\n

The term “Thucydides Trap” is derived from a passage in the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ work History of the Peloponnesian War<\/em>, where he explained the causes of the conflict between Athens (the rising power) and Sparta (the ruling power) in the 4th century BC. Thucydides famously wrote<\/p>\n