{"id":9112,"date":"2011-05-01T12:17:49","date_gmt":"2011-05-01T16:17:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=9112"},"modified":"2011-05-01T12:40:10","modified_gmt":"2011-05-01T16:40:10","slug":"final-pre-election-poll-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2011\/05\/01\/final-pre-election-poll-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"Final pre-election poll numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow looks like an interesting day:<\/p>\n

\"\"Click thumbnail to view full size table<\/a>
\"\"<\/p>\n

Update<\/b>: To further emphasize how interesting tomorrow’s vote may be, Colby Cosh<\/a> points out that nobody<\/em> is confident in their predictions:<\/p>\n

\n

Are you ready to stay up late May 2? Do you have good coffee and plenty of snacks laid in? This may be the election with the highest quantity of uncertainty in my adult experience. The NDP\u2019s dazzling polling gains simply have no obvious recent precedent. I\u2019m not sure a national party has ever<\/em> made strides of this magnitude and nature in such a bewilderingly short time.<\/p>\n

Think about the questions you have to ask to estimate the impact, in terms of Commons representation, of a shift like this; you have to form ideas about the sincerity of the polling subjects\u2019 intentions, the efficiency of the resulting gains in various regions, and the pure logistical power of the party to get out its vote, all while taking into account the activity and the relative positions of three or four other parties.<\/p>\n

And then, as if all that weren\u2019t enough, some old flatfoot comes along and tells some TV guys about Jack Layton getting naked in a place he ought not to have been naking around in. Nobody knows what will happen on May 2 — and I don\u2019t mean that in the usual perfunctory way. This time, really<\/em>, nobody has any<\/em> idea. Having messed around with election models, I could tell you plausible stories that involve the NDP winning 120 seats; I could tell you stories of roughly equal plausibility that put them at 55.<\/p>\n

Of course, there are limits. I am just about ready to rule out a Diefenbaker-like cross-country rampage by the Conservatives. I am just about ready to promise that Michael Ignatieff will not look happy on Monday evening. (Though even then: how stupefyingly low are expectations for him at this point?) What I can tell you is what how I would bet, if I had to bet. I believe, halfway through the weekend, that the Conservative push for a majority will come down to the wire. And I think they are a little more likely to get there than not.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow looks like an interesting day: Click thumbnail to view full size table Update: To further emphasize how interesting tomorrow’s vote may be, Colby Cosh points out that nobody is confident in their predictions: Are you ready to stay up late May 2? Do you have good coffee and plenty of snacks laid in? This […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,53],"tags":[188,289],"class_list":["post-9112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cancon","category-politics","tag-electionwatch","tag-polls"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2hpV6-2mY","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9112"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9116,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9112\/revisions\/9116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}