{"id":83023,"date":"2023-06-22T04:00:28","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T08:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=83023"},"modified":"2023-06-21T17:16:33","modified_gmt":"2023-06-21T21:16:33","slug":"cdr-salamanders-proposal-to-encourage-nato-countries-to-meet-or-exceed-their-agreed-defence-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2023\/06\/22\/cdr-salamanders-proposal-to-encourage-nato-countries-to-meet-or-exceed-their-agreed-defence-targets\/","title":{"rendered":"CDR Salamander&#8217;s proposal to &#8220;encourage&#8221; NATO countries to meet or exceed their agreed defence targets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right; padding: 0px 0px 10px 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-480x240.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"480\" height=\"240\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-53416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-480x240.png 480w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-150x75.png 150w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/NATO_OTAN-logo.png 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/a>Canada has been a notorious defence freeloader since the first Trudeau government took office in 1968. Every Canadian government since then &mdash; until the current government started telling our allies we had <a href=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2023\/04\/24\/canada-wont-meet-its-defence-spending-targets-and-trudeau-is-totally-fine-saying-this-to-our-allies-if-not-to-the-public\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">no intention of meeting our treaty commitments<\/a> &mdash; has made more-or-less sincere noises about getting back to the 2% of GDP minimum defence budget and none have done much to make it happen (we&#8217;re around 1.39% at the moment). Several years ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/cdrsalamander.substack.com\/p\/what-nato-must-do-01jan24\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CDR Salamander<\/a> proposed a new way to allocate NATO leadership roles according to how close to the minimum each member country has managed to get, and it&#8217;s surprising that something of the sort hasn&#8217;t already been implemented:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>It should bring to the front that NATO can no longer allow unserious nations to play like they are anything but security free-riders. They need to contribute their fair share or pay some consequence. Alliances have benefits and responsibilities. You should not have one without the other.<\/p>\n<p>While percentage of GDP is an imperfect measure of contribution, it is better than all the other ones. It is as simple benchmark of national effort.<\/p>\n<p>As these are the best numbers we have, let&#8217;s look at 2021 and then forward.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screenshot-2022-09-22-at-15-22-13-What-NATO-Must-Do-01JAN24.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screenshot-2022-09-22-at-15-22-13-What-NATO-Must-Do-01JAN24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"349\" height=\"640\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-76670\" srcset=\"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screenshot-2022-09-22-at-15-22-13-What-NATO-Must-Do-01JAN24.png 349w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screenshot-2022-09-22-at-15-22-13-What-NATO-Must-Do-01JAN24-327x600.png 327w, https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screenshot-2022-09-22-at-15-22-13-What-NATO-Must-Do-01JAN24-82x150.png 82w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 349px) 100vw, 349px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It is amazing that after all Russia has shown Western Europe &mdash; both of its nature and the nature of modern warfare &mdash; that so many of our NATO allies continue to slow walk defense spending, doing the very minimum to be a full and fair partner in the alliance.<\/p>\n<p>Russian victory &mdash; however they define it &mdash; or Russian defeat &mdash; however Ukraine defines it &#8211; will not change the geography or nature of Russia. She is not going anywhere.<\/p>\n<p>[&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p>There is so much deferred spending from our free-riding European allies. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<p><em>Between 1999 and 2021, EU combined defence spending increased by 20%, according to reports by the European Defence Agency. That compares with a 66% increase by the US, and 292% by Russia and 592% by China, over the same period.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;Out years&#8221; are where dragons live, so anyone not on guide-slope to 2%+ by the end of 2023 &mdash; when one way or another the Russo-Ukrainian War should be over &mdash; will find someway to not get there in a wave of excuses and bluffing. <\/p>\n<p>We should call their bluff.<\/p>\n<p>As such, and this is generous, we need to finally pursue PLAN SALAMANDER for NATO &#8220;Flags-to-Post&#8221; that I first proposed almost six years ago.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<p><em>In NATO, General and Flag Officer billets are distributed amongst nations in a rather complicated way, but this formula is controlled by NATO \u2013 and as such \u2013 can be changed.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Entering argument: take the present formula for &#8220;fair distribution&#8221; and multiply by .75 any nation that spends 1.5% to 1.99% GDP on defense. Multiply by .5 any nation that spends between 1.25% to 1.499%. Multiply by .25 1.0% to 1.240%. If you fall below 1%, you get nothing and your OF5 (Col.\/Capt) billets are halved. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>1.25x for 2.01%-2.25%. 1.5X for 2.26%-2.75%; 1.75x for 2.76% -3.0%. 2x for +3.01%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The math gets funky when a lot of people get over 2%, but we can refine it later. Doesn&#8217;t cost a penny and will unquestionably get the attention of those nations. Trust me on this. By January 1st, 2024 no more excuses. A small and symbolic punishment, but a good start that may be all that is needed. This is not the second half of the 20th Century any more.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada has been a notorious defence freeloader since the first Trudeau government took office in 1968. Every Canadian government since then &mdash; until the current government started telling our allies we had no intention of meeting our treaty commitments &mdash; has made more-or-less sincere noises about getting back to the 2% of GDP minimum defence [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,62,5,13],"tags":[697,572,220],"class_list":["post-83023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cancon","category-europe","category-military","category-usa","tag-budget","tag-leadership","tag-nato"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/favicon.png","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2hpV6-lB5","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83023"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83027,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83023\/revisions\/83027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}