{"id":46858,"date":"2019-02-09T03:00:10","date_gmt":"2019-02-09T08:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=46858"},"modified":"2019-02-08T15:57:15","modified_gmt":"2019-02-08T20:57:15","slug":"the-price-tag-for-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-renewable-energy-dream","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/the-price-tag-for-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-renewable-energy-dream\/","title":{"rendered":"The price tag for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez&#8217;s renewable energy dream"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At <em>Reason<\/em>, <a href=\"https:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/07\/green-new-deal-democratic-socialism-by-o\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ronald Bailey<\/a> looks at how much it would cost to implement Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez&#8217;s post-fossil-fuel plans:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>There&#8217;s a lot to consider in this resolution, but let&#8217;s for the time being focus on the goal of &#8220;meeting 100 percent of the power demand in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources&#8221; by 2030. The resolution is light on fiscal details, so let&#8217;s consider the question of how achieving this goal would cost.<\/p>\n<p>As it happens, a team of Stanford engineers led by Mark Jacobson <a href=\"https:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/21\/powering-us-using-100-percent-renewable\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">outlined just such a plan<\/a> back in 2015. Jacobson&#8217;s repowering plan would involve installing 335,000 onshore wind turbines; 154,000 offshore wind turbines; 75 million residential photovoltaic systems; 2.75 million commercial photovoltaic systems; 46,000 utility-scale photovoltaic facilities; 3,600 concentrated solar power facilities with onsite heat storage; and an extensive array of underground thermal storage facilities.<\/p>\n<p>Assuming steep declines in the costs of each form of renewable electric power generation, just running the electrical grid using only renewable power would still cost roughly $7 trillion by 2030. The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation calculated that the total cost of an earlier version of Jacobson&#8217;s scheme would amount to $13 trillion. And based on how fast it has taken to install energy generation infrastructure in the past, Jacobson&#8217;s repowering plan would require a sustained installation rate that is more than 14 times the U.S. average over the last 55 years and more than six times the peak rate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The cost &mdash; $7 trillion &mdash; would be spent to save &#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.continentaltelegraph.com\/climate-change\/the-economic-silliness-of-the-ocasio-cortez-green-new-deal\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><em>how<\/em><\/strong> much?<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<p><em>..global warming at or above 2 degrees Celsius beyond preindustrialized levels will cause\u2014 (A) mass migration from the regions most affected by climate change; (B) more than $500,000,000,000 in lost annual economic output in the United States by the year 2100;<\/em><\/p>\n<\/ul>\n<p>$500 billion a year isn\u2019t a lot in the context of the US economy. It\u2019s currently around $20 trillion in size, so we\u2019re talking about 2.5% of the economy being lost. But of course we\u2019re also predicting that the economy will grow between now and then. Actually, we think the US economy will be about $100 trillion a year by 2100. So we\u2019re talking about 0.5% of that economy. Or about the change in size of the US economy between September and December last year. Think how much richer we did feel over those few months. And how much poorer we\u2019d be if it hadn\u2019t happened, that growth.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, and to avoid that loss AOC is suggesting that we spend $7 trillion now? That just doesn\u2019t pass the cost benefit test. It doesn\u2019t even pass at the Stern Review\u2019s special discount rate.<\/p>\n<p>Which is, of course, what all the economists have been trying to tell us all about dealing with climate change. Don\u2019t do it by central planning, do it by using market incentives. Have a carbon tax. Don\u2019t try and do it too quickly \u2013 William Nordhaus gained his Nobel in part for saying this \u2013 but do it more gradually over time. Don\u2019t junk what we\u2019ve got that already works, instead when the normal time comes to replace it then make sure it\u2019s non-carbon emitting. Finally, don\u2019t do it the expensive way, do it the cheap way. For the cheaper we make it to solve it then the more of the problem we\u2019ll solve. You know, humans usually doing less of the expensive things and more of the cheap?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The most bizarre passage in the Green New Deal is the admission that after they&#39;ve junked every car in America, replaced every power plant, and renovated every single building within the space of a decade, they might not get around to slaughtering all the cows by their deadline.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Megan McArdle (@asymmetricinfo) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/asymmetricinfo\/status\/1093614757666607104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 7, 2019<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At Reason, Ronald Bailey looks at how much it would cost to implement Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez&#8217;s post-fossil-fuel plans: There&#8217;s a lot to consider in this resolution, but let&#8217;s for the time being focus on the goal of &#8220;meeting 100 percent of the power demand in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources&#8221; by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[25,65,53,13],"tags":[640,497],"class_list":["post-46858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","category-politics","category-usa","tag-alternativeenergy","tag-electricity"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2hpV6-cbM","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/favicon.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46858"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46858\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46865,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46858\/revisions\/46865"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}