{"id":25077,"date":"2014-04-10T08:46:47","date_gmt":"2014-04-10T13:46:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=25077"},"modified":"2014-04-10T10:38:26","modified_gmt":"2014-04-10T15:38:26","slug":"new-poll-shows-pcs-leading-liberals-in-ontario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2014\/04\/10\/new-poll-shows-pcs-leading-liberals-in-ontario\/","title":{"rendered":"New poll shows PCs leading Liberals in Ontario"},"content":{"rendered":"

As always with polls, take a big pinch of salt before you take them too seriously<\/a>:<\/p>\n

A new poll suggests Ontario\u2019s Progressive Conservatives have taken the lead in popular support over the Liberals in the wake of the gas plant scandal, according to a published report.<\/p>\n

A Forum Research poll conducted for the Toronto Star<\/em><\/a> suggests Tim Hudak\u2019s Tories have 38 per cent of support, versus 31 per cent for the Liberals. Andrea Howarth\u2019s New Democrats are at 23 per cent.<\/p>\n

Two weeks ago, Premier Kathleen Wynne\u2019s Liberals led with 35 per cent of support, while the Tories were at 32 per cent and the NDP at 25 per cent.<\/p>\n

The surge is attributed mainly to the simmering gas plants scandal.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s almost all due to the scandal over the deletion of those emails concerning the gas plants,\u201d Forum president Lorne Bozinoff told 680News.<\/p>\n

The poll also reveals that 45 per cent of those surveyed believe Wynne knew about the alleged deleting of emails related to the gas plants.<\/p>\n

It also found that 47 per cent believe she ordered deletions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe did ask was the premier aware \u2014 a lot of people believe the premier was aware,\u201d Bozinoff said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe also asked if people think a crime has been committed and a lot of people also think a crime has been committed.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of course, as long as Horwath’s NDP continue to prop up the Liberals, there won’t be a provincial election … and I doubt Horwath sees much chance of improvement over the current poll numbers. The only way the Ontario NDP will topple the government is if the scandal gets worse: the NDP can get more of their agenda passed by the Liberals than they could in a Conservative legislature, but the NDP can’t afford to look as though they’re in any way complicit in covering up wrongdoing — that would offend their base even more than it would offend undecided voters.<\/p>\n

Update<\/strong>: This is one of the reasons you need to take poll numbers with a degree of skepticism:<\/p>\n

\n

Ooookay. Forum poll of ON, today: PC 38 Lib 31 NDP 23. Ekos, *yesterday*: Lib 32 NDP 29 PC 27. http:\/\/t.co\/RdS4ZBaTmt<\/a> http:\/\/t.co\/DKnC1rEwH0<\/a><\/p>\n

— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) April 10, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n