{"id":101313,"date":"2026-03-12T04:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T08:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/?p=101313"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:15:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T19:15:49","slug":"carneys-liberals-buy-gain-another-seat-in-parliament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quotulatiousness.ca\/blog\/2026\/03\/12\/carneys-liberals-buy-gain-another-seat-in-parliament\/","title":{"rendered":"Carney’s Liberals buy<\/span><\/strike> gain another seat in Parliament"},"content":{"rendered":"

What couldn’t be obtained at the ballot box can apparently be constructed through non-electoral methods. After the Liberals fell short of a majority in the 2025 federal election, they’ve now gained four<\/em> more seats through attracting opposition MPs to join their caucus<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Image from Melanie in Saskatchewan<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Consider several ridings from the last election where Conservatives defeated Liberals by extremely small margins. Terra Nova\u2013The Peninsulas was decided by only a handful of votes. Milton East\u2013Halton Hills South by just a few dozen. Windsor\u2013Tecumseh\u2013Lakeshore by fewer than a hundred. In Markham\u2013Unionville and Edmonton Riverbend the margins were still narrow by federal election standards, measured in the low hundreds.<\/p>\n

In ridings with tens of thousands of ballots cast, those margins are not ideological fortresses.
\nThey are statistical coin flips.<\/p>\n

Now imagine you are a strategist trying to change the parliamentary math without calling another election. Would you target MPs who defeated your party by twenty thousand votes? Or would you look at ridings where the electorate was already split nearly fifty fifty? Where persuading one individual changes everything!?<\/p>\n

That is where the Moneyball logic appears<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Instead of persuading fifty thousand voters, you persuade one MP. The scoreboard shifts instantly. No campaign. No election. No voters trudging through snow to mark an X. Just a quiet change of jersey on the House of Commons floor.<\/p>\n

Now consider the MPs who have crossed the floor or whose ridings are currently the focus of speculation. Seats like Edmonton Riverbend held by Matt Jeneroux and Markham\u2013Unionville represented by Michael Ma sit squarely in that category of competitive swing ridings. Even Nunavut, represented by Lori Idlout, illustrates how single seats in geographically unique ridings can dramatically affect parliamentary arithmetic.<\/p>\n

Notice the pattern.
\nNot massive strongholds.
\nSwing ridings.
\nSeats where the Liberal candidate already came within striking distance.<\/p>\n

Which raises an uncomfortable question.<\/p>\n

Is this coincidence?
\nOr strategy?<\/p>\n

Because if a riding was decided by one hundred votes, persuading the MP to change parties is dramatically easier than persuading fifty thousand voters to change their minds. The parliamentary math changes instantly.<\/p>\n

The voters never get another say.<\/p>\n