Planning to watch the Super Bowl? A little leery about the six-and-a-half-hour pre-game show? Fear not, we can provide you with an approximate guide for what you will see. Read this, then spend time with your family instead. Win-win! (All times approximate, by which we mean made up.)

12:00 p.m. NBC’s broadcast is coming to you live from Indianapolis, which means we begin with Bob Costas trying to: (a) argue that Indianapolis is a great place and that the game is somehow more meaningful for being there; and (b) keep a straight face

12:32 p.m. First shot of Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski walking on his injured ankle. Will he play? Will he be effective? Fortunately, we have six hours to listen to people come up with ever more inventive ways to say “maybe.”

12:45 p.m. Costas gives an earnest speech about Indianapolis, home of the iconic Colts franchise. Not mentioned: Most of the iconic stuff happened in Baltimore, before the owner snuck the team out of town in the dead of night. In Indy, the history of the franchise’s fortunes can be summed up as “crappycrappycrappyPeytonManningcrappy.”

1:02 p.m. Time to soak in some of the exciting moments from the official “tailgate” party, which is in fact nowhere near a parking lot. Musical act falls under the category of “Popular Enough Once That Some People in Audience Have Heard of Them, But Not So Popular That We Would Want Them on TV For Long.” So, Fleetwood Mac, Alabama or 3 Doors Down.

1:04 p.m. The real question here is whether the performance rivals that of the tailgate party a few years back, when Journey appeared and caused America to collectively wonder when Steve Perry turned into a Fillipino guy with long hair.

Update: For those of you who only watch the Super Bowl for the ads (and I know there are lots of you), Reuters has most of the “big” ads collated into one post for your convenience. This is especially useful for those of us north of the 49th parallel, where many of the ads will be overlaid with the same crappy commercials we’ve seen all year. I’m not normally a fan of “there ought to be a law” solutions, but I’d be less than upset if CRTC regulations prohibited showing the same commercial 6-8 times per hour. (If nothing else, that level of repetition probably irritates potential customers more than it attracts them.)

Update, 6 February: It looks like the Reuters collection in the first update was intended to emphasize the lamest of the ads. There’s another collection in the National Post with more. (I don’t follow hockey, but I did think the Budweiser hockey ad was well done, even if they just stole the idea from an improv group.)

A more accurate reflection should be taking in three factors, not just yards gained or allowed. In realistic terms, there should be two other criteria measured. Seeing as games are decided by points scored, that should be factored in. Also, there are defenses that are known as “bend, don’t break.” They allow yards, but, once in the red zone, they stiffen up and turn potential touchdowns into field goals.

While not a perfect system, the numbers bear out that this is a much more accurate reflection of the true value of an offense or a defense. According to the “official” numbers, the Eagles were a top-eight team in both offense and defense. Reality said otherwise.

What follow are VU’s reality rankings of NFL offenses and defenses. Each team is ranked in three categories – yards, points and red zone touchdown percentage. The first figure is where offenses and defenses were ranked for comparison purposes.

[. . .]

Offense

Defence

1. New England – 2-3-2 (7) 2. Green Bay – 3-1-3 (7) 3. New Orleans – 1-2-6 (9) 4. Detroit – 5-4-4 (13) 5. Carolina – 7-5½-7 (19½) 6. San Diego – 6-5½-10 (21½) 7. N.Y. Giants – 8-9-8 (25) 8. Philadelphia – 4-8-14 (26) 9. Atlanta – 10-7-13 (30) 10. N.Y. Jets – 25-13-1 (39) 11. Buffalo – 14-14-11 (39) 12. Oakland – 9-16-16 (41) 13. Tennessee – 17-21½-5 (43½) 14. Baltimore – 15-12-17 (44) 15. Dallas – 11-15-20 (46) 16. Minnesota – 19-19-9 (46) 17. Houston – 13-10-25 (48) 18. Pittsburgh – 12-21½-18 (51½) 19. Chicago – 24-17-12 (53) 20. Arizona – 19-24-15 (58) 21. Cincinnati – 20-18-26 (64) 22. Miami – 22-20-24 (66) 23. Tampa Bay – 21-27-19 (67) 24. San Francisco – 26-11-30 (67) 25. Denver – 23-25-23 (71) 26. Washington – 16-26-29 (71) 27. Seattle – 28-23-22 (73) 28. Jacksonville – 32-28½-21 (81½) 29. Indianapolis – 30- 28½-27 (85½) 30. Cleveland – 29-30-28 (87) 31. Kansas City – 27-31-32 (90) 32. St. Louis – 31-32-31 (94)

1. Baltimore – 3-3-1 (7) 2. San Francisco – 4-2-4 (10) 3. Houston – 2-4-9 (15) 4. Pittsburgh – 1-1-17 (19) 5. Cleveland – 10-5-3 (18) 6. Miami – 15-6-6 (27) 7. Seattle – 9-7-11 (27) 8. Tennessee – 18½-8-10 (36½) 9. Arizona – 18½-17-2 (37½) 10. Chicago – 17-14-7 (38) 11. Atlanta – 12-18-8 (38) 12. Washington – 13-21-5 (39) 13. Jacksonville – 6-11-23 (40) 14. N.Y. Jets – 5-20-16 (41) 15. Cincinnati – 7-9-25 (41) 16. Kansas City – 11-12-18 (41) 17. Philadelphia – 8-10-30 (48) 18. Dallas – 14-16-19 (49) 19. Detroit – 23-23-12 (58) 20. Denver – 20-24-15 (59) 21. St. Louis – 22-26-13 (61) 22. New Orleans – 24-13-28 (65) 23. Minnesota – 21-31-14 (66) 24. San Diego – 16-22-29 (67) 25. New England – 31-15-21½ (67.5) 26. Green Bay – 32-19-20 (71) 27. N.Y. Giants – 27-25-21½ (73½) 28. Carolina – 28-27-27 (82) 29. Indianapolis – 25-28-31 (84) 30. Oakland – 29-29-26 (84) 31. Tampa Bay – 30-32-24 (86) 32. Buffalo – 26-30-32 (88)

An apology is required.

Yes, one may eventually be asked of Vikings coach Leslie Frazier for building a coaching staff filled with people who have either been demoted or have yet to prove they can succeed at their current jobs.

Today, though, let me be the one to offer the apology.

I’m sorry, Leslie, for questioning whether your vintage football philosophies could work in the modern world.

I’m sorry for questioning whether your vision of the bareknuckle 1985 Bears had skewed your perspective on the NFL in the Year of the Mayan Prophecy, when passes flew in NFL stadia like locusts in the Old Testament.

Whether your coaches and players will be good enough to win remains in doubt, but your philosophies will be on display all day Sunday, in the NFL’s conference championship games.

Three of the four remaining teams play black-and-white football in the age of 3D color. Sunday provides proof that Frazier’s vision of winning with a powerful running game and a stout defense doesn’t necessarily require that he undergo Lasik surgery.

After Roger Headrick hired him away from Stanford, Green assembled a staff that included Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, Monte Kiffin, John Teerlinck, Ty Willingham, Willie Shaw and Brian Billick. Green even brought in two players, Mike Tice and Jack Del Rio, who would become NFL head coaches.

At the time, nobody knew just how impressive that list of names would become.

Dungy rehabilitated a sagging career as Green’s defensive coordinator and became an outstanding head coach.

Tom Moore coached receivers for Green. Not until he mentored Peyton Manning as the Colts offensive coordinator would his methods gain fame.

Monte Kiffin coached inside linebackers. He would become one of the great defensive coordinators in NFL history.

Brian Billick coached tight ends. He would win a Super Bowl while running the Ravens.

Willie Shaw coached the secondary for Green; he would become an NFL defensive coordinator. His son now coaches Stanford.

Ty Willingham would become the coach at Notre Dame and Teerlinck would coach the Colts defensive line for Dungy when they won the Super Bowl.

Coaches are not the total answer: even the best coaching staff in the world is limited by the skills and talents of the players they have to work with. But a good player can elevate his game with the assistance of good coaching. The quality of your coaching staff will make a difference to the total performance of your team.

The Gospel According to Tebow added another chapter Sunday. It may be time to recite Tim Tebow victories like Bible verses. Sunday, he completed 10 of 21 passes, officially recorded as Tebow 10:21. Vikings fans are familiar with Tebow 10:15, one of the more profound verses in the Gospel. Kansas City is no stranger to the Book of Tebow, but they are forced to recite Tebow 2:8 (a particularly harsh verse in the Leviticus vein) and Tebow 6:22. San Diego has read Tebow 9:18. The Jets know the nearby verse of Tebow 9:20 by heart. The Patriots version of Tebow 11:22 will be posted on the locker room wall this week. Buffalo fans still shudder at the sound of Tebow 13:29. Amen, so shall it be.

“This is what they wanted,” Dunbar said in a phone interview with the Star Tribune. “Coach Frazier told me the ownership wanted to go in a different direction. And for me, that’s fine. As football coaches, we know we’re all migrant workers and we go where the jobs are. Now, my job in Minnesota is over.”

Dunbar joined the Vikings in 2006 when Brad Childress became coach and helped the defensive line establish a reputation as a sturdy, run-stopping unit. Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and Jared Allen all earned Pro Bowl invitations while playing under Dunbar. And this season, despite the well-documented struggles of the entire defense, the d-line may have had the most solid season of any Vikings’ position group, ranking 11th in the NFL against the run. The Vikings also tallied 50 sacks as a team with defensive end setting a new single-season team record with 22.

Still, after a 3-13 finish, Frazier has vowed to shake things up and make significant changes to his coaching staff. Dunbar’s exit is likely just the start of the revolving door at Winter Park.

Dunbar said he wasn’t able to diagnose the root cause of the Vikings’ 3-13 freefall.

“I’m a position coach,” he said. “I’m not a coordinator. I’m not a head coach. When I look at what I did with the Minnesota Vikings, my piece of the puzzle was to make the defensive line play as well as they could. We played well against the run. I think we finished No. 11 against the run. And we finished No. 1 in sacks. And the guy I coached led the league in sacks with 22 on a team that really didn’t have a lead the last eight games of the year. So I thought that was my piece of the puzzle. I can’t worry about running backs, defensive backs, receivers, linebackers. When you do it, you focus on your job, put your piece of the puzzle in and go from there.”

If your defence was putrid — and it was, between injuries and legal issues — someone has to be seen to pay, but why is the only guy whose players more than earned their salaries the first one to go? I just don’t get it.

Tom Pelissero is predicting some swift changes in the coaching staff now that the season is done, almost certainly starting with the firing (or demotion) of defensive co-ordinator Fred Pagac:

Owners Zygi and Mark Wilf were expected to remain in the Twin Cities as well, increasing the chances that shakeups to the coaching staff that have been under discussion for over a month could be finalized by the end of the week.

“I think you’ve got to look at everything,” Frazier said. “I don’t think you can not look at everything.”

All indications continue to be that Frazier is safe, in spite of a 6-16 record since taking over on an interim basis on Nov. 22, 2010.

The same can’t be said for a defensive staff that mostly survived the cleanout process when Frazier was given the job on a full-time basis last January.

The questions are whether the Vikings will move away from the Tampa-2/Cover-2 scheme they’ve played for years and how Frazier will go about letting some assistants go — firing them or simply giving them permission to seek other jobs while he interviews potential successors, as he did with Darrell Bevell and Brian Murphy a year ago.

“We’ll see what happens,” linebacker Chad Greenway said, speaking generally. “You know it’s always room for change, but personnel or coaches — you don’t know. It’s always fluid in this league and you hope as many people can stick around, but you know it’s not possible.”

Barring a surprising change of course, the Vikings are expected to relieve Fred Pagac of his duties after one tumultuous season as defensive coordinator in which he wasn’t allowed to run his preferred Cover-1 blitz attack, lost the confidence of some players within the first month and was stripped of play-calling duties for a stretch in November. He remains respected as a linebackers coach, though, and could be retained if he accepts a lesser role.

√ Detroit 41 @Green Bay 45
√ San Francisco 34 @St. Louis 27
√ @Miami 19 New York (NYJ) 17
∅ @Minnesota 13 Chicago 17
√ @New England 49 Buffalo 21
√ @New Orleans 45 Carolina 17
∅ @Philadelphia 34 Washington 10
√ @Jacksonville 19 Indianapolis 13
∅ Tennessee 23 @Houston 22
√ @Atlanta 45 Tampa Bay 24
√ Baltimore 24 @Cincinnati 16
√ @Cleveland 9 Pittsburgh 13
∅ @Denver 3 Kansas City 7
∅ @Oakland 26 San Diego 38
√ @Arizona 23 Seattle 20
∅ @New York (NYG) 31 Dallas 14

This week: 10-6 (8-8 against the spread)
Regular season: 152-104 (120-126 against the spread: 10 pushes)

Detroit vs @Green Bay (3.5) Sun 1:00
San Francisco vs @St. Louis (10.5) Sun 1:00
@Miami vs New York (NYJ) (2.5) Sun 1:00
@Minnesota vs Chicago (1.0) Sun 1:00
@New England vs Buffalo (11.0) Sun 1:00
@New Orleans vs Carolina (8.0) Sun 1:00
@Philadelphia vs Washington (8.5) Sun 1:00
@Jacksonville vs Indianapolis (3.5) Sun 1:00
Tennessee vs @Houston (3.0) Sun 1:00
@Atlanta vs Tampa Bay (12.0) Sun 1:00
Baltimore vs @Cincinnati (2.0) Sun 4:15
@Cleveland vs Pittsburgh (0) Sun 4:15
@Denver vs Kansas City (3.5) Sun 4:15
@Oakland vs San Diego (3.0) Sun 4:15
@Arizona vs Seattle (3.0) Sun 4:15
@New York (NYG) vs Dallas (3.0) Sun 8:30

Last week: 11-5 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 142-98