Quotulatiousness

January 28, 2012

Revising the NFL’s rating system

Filed under: Football — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 13:32

The NFL keeps lots and lots of statistics, but the traditional way of ranking teams is based on total yardage gained and lost. Using that measurement, the two worst defensive teams in the league were the top seeds in their respective conferences, and one of them is appearing in the Super Bowl next week. That doesn’t seem to be an accurate way of comparing teams, as John Holler points out:

A more accurate reflection should be taking in three factors, not just yards gained or allowed. In realistic terms, there should be two other criteria measured. Seeing as games are decided by points scored, that should be factored in. Also, there are defenses that are known as “bend, don’t break.” They allow yards, but, once in the red zone, they stiffen up and turn potential touchdowns into field goals.

While not a perfect system, the numbers bear out that this is a much more accurate reflection of the true value of an offense or a defense. According to the “official” numbers, the Eagles were a top-eight team in both offense and defense. Reality said otherwise.

What follow are VU’s reality rankings of NFL offenses and defenses. Each team is ranked in three categories – yards, points and red zone touchdown percentage. The first figure is where offenses and defenses were ranked for comparison purposes.

[. . .]

Offense

Defence

1. New England – 2-3-2 (7)
2. Green Bay – 3-1-3 (7)
3. New Orleans – 1-2-6 (9)
4. Detroit – 5-4-4 (13)
5. Carolina – 7-5½-7 (19½)
6. San Diego – 6-5½-10 (21½)
7. N.Y. Giants – 8-9-8 (25)
8. Philadelphia – 4-8-14 (26)
9. Atlanta – 10-7-13 (30)
10. N.Y. Jets – 25-13-1 (39)
11. Buffalo – 14-14-11 (39)
12. Oakland – 9-16-16 (41)
13. Tennessee – 17-21½-5 (43½)
14. Baltimore – 15-12-17 (44)
15. Dallas – 11-15-20 (46)
16. Minnesota – 19-19-9 (46)
17. Houston – 13-10-25 (48)
18. Pittsburgh – 12-21½-18 (51½)
19. Chicago – 24-17-12 (53)
20. Arizona – 19-24-15 (58)
21. Cincinnati – 20-18-26 (64)
22. Miami – 22-20-24 (66)
23. Tampa Bay – 21-27-19 (67)
24. San Francisco – 26-11-30 (67)
25. Denver – 23-25-23 (71)
26. Washington – 16-26-29 (71)
27. Seattle – 28-23-22 (73)
28. Jacksonville – 32-28½-21 (81½)
29. Indianapolis – 30- 28½-27 (85½)
30. Cleveland – 29-30-28 (87)
31. Kansas City – 27-31-32 (90)
32. St. Louis – 31-32-31 (94)

1. Baltimore – 3-3-1 (7)
2. San Francisco – 4-2-4 (10)
3. Houston – 2-4-9 (15)
4. Pittsburgh – 1-1-17 (19)
5. Cleveland – 10-5-3 (18)
6. Miami – 15-6-6 (27)
7. Seattle – 9-7-11 (27)
8. Tennessee – 18½-8-10 (36½)
9. Arizona – 18½-17-2 (37½)
10. Chicago – 17-14-7 (38)
11. Atlanta – 12-18-8 (38)
12. Washington – 13-21-5 (39)
13. Jacksonville – 6-11-23 (40)
14. N.Y. Jets – 5-20-16 (41)
15. Cincinnati – 7-9-25 (41)
16. Kansas City – 11-12-18 (41)
17. Philadelphia – 8-10-30 (48)
18. Dallas – 14-16-19 (49)
19. Detroit – 23-23-12 (58)
20. Denver – 20-24-15 (59)
21. St. Louis – 22-26-13 (61)
22. New Orleans – 24-13-28 (65)
23. Minnesota – 21-31-14 (66)
24. San Diego – 16-22-29 (67)
25. New England – 31-15-21½ (67.5)
26. Green Bay – 32-19-20 (71)
27. N.Y. Giants – 27-25-21½ (73½)
28. Carolina – 28-27-27 (82)
29. Indianapolis – 25-28-31 (84)
30. Oakland – 29-29-26 (84)
31. Tampa Bay – 30-32-24 (86)
32. Buffalo – 26-30-32 (88)

January 22, 2012

Souhan: Perhaps Leslie Frazier is on the right track after all

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 10:57

The Vikings’ season is over, but the chatter carries on. Jim Souhan, however, looks at the surviving playoff contenders and draws an interesting conclusion:

An apology is required.

Yes, one may eventually be asked of Vikings coach Leslie Frazier for building a coaching staff filled with people who have either been demoted or have yet to prove they can succeed at their current jobs.

Today, though, let me be the one to offer the apology.

I’m sorry, Leslie, for questioning whether your vintage football philosophies could work in the modern world.

I’m sorry for questioning whether your vision of the bareknuckle 1985 Bears had skewed your perspective on the NFL in the Year of the Mayan Prophecy, when passes flew in NFL stadia like locusts in the Old Testament.

Whether your coaches and players will be good enough to win remains in doubt, but your philosophies will be on display all day Sunday, in the NFL’s conference championship games.

Three of the four remaining teams play black-and-white football in the age of 3D color. Sunday provides proof that Frazier’s vision of winning with a powerful running game and a stout defense doesn’t necessarily require that he undergo Lasik surgery.

January 15, 2012

Tim Tebow and David Bowie, as one: Tebowie

Filed under: Football, Humour, Media — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:59

Denny Green as a coaching talent spotter

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:39

While the current Minnesota Vikings management goes through the fire-and-hire cycle for the coaching staff who finished the 3-13 season, it’s perhaps of some value to recognize how important the junior coaches can be to ensuring long-term team success. At the Star Tribune, Jim Souhan lists the rather stellar cast of assistant coaches former Vikings head coach Denny Green assembled at the start of his tenure with Minnesota:

After Roger Headrick hired him away from Stanford, Green assembled a staff that included Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, Monte Kiffin, John Teerlinck, Ty Willingham, Willie Shaw and Brian Billick. Green even brought in two players, Mike Tice and Jack Del Rio, who would become NFL head coaches.

At the time, nobody knew just how impressive that list of names would become.

Dungy rehabilitated a sagging career as Green’s defensive coordinator and became an outstanding head coach.

Tom Moore coached receivers for Green. Not until he mentored Peyton Manning as the Colts offensive coordinator would his methods gain fame.

Monte Kiffin coached inside linebackers. He would become one of the great defensive coordinators in NFL history.

Brian Billick coached tight ends. He would win a Super Bowl while running the Ravens.

Willie Shaw coached the secondary for Green; he would become an NFL defensive coordinator. His son now coaches Stanford.

Ty Willingham would become the coach at Notre Dame and Teerlinck would coach the Colts defensive line for Dungy when they won the Super Bowl.

Coaches are not the total answer: even the best coaching staff in the world is limited by the skills and talents of the players they have to work with. But a good player can elevate his game with the assistance of good coaching. The quality of your coaching staff will make a difference to the total performance of your team.

January 9, 2012

The Gospel according to Tebow

Filed under: Football, Humour — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 13:01

I’m not a Tebow fan, but I did find this John Holler bit amusing:

The Gospel According to Tebow added another chapter Sunday. It may be time to recite Tim Tebow victories like Bible verses. Sunday, he completed 10 of 21 passes, officially recorded as Tebow 10:21. Vikings fans are familiar with Tebow 10:15, one of the more profound verses in the Gospel. Kansas City is no stranger to the Book of Tebow, but they are forced to recite Tebow 2:8 (a particularly harsh verse in the Leviticus vein) and Tebow 6:22. San Diego has read Tebow 9:18. The Jets know the nearby verse of Tebow 9:20 by heart. The Patriots version of Tebow 11:22 will be posted on the locker room wall this week. Buffalo fans still shudder at the sound of Tebow 13:29. Amen, so shall it be.

January 7, 2012

Vikings fire only defensive coach whose unit did well this year

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 00:08

Okay, I admit I’m stumped: the Minnesota Vikings had a putrid 2011 season. They lost games they should have won and they barely managed to win the games they should have dominated. I get it that the defence was clearly a problem and that changes were going to have to be made. What I don’t understand is that the only coach on the defence whose unit played well is the very first coach to be fired:

“This is what they wanted,” Dunbar said in a phone interview with the Star Tribune. “Coach Frazier told me the ownership wanted to go in a different direction. And for me, that’s fine. As football coaches, we know we’re all migrant workers and we go where the jobs are. Now, my job in Minnesota is over.”

Dunbar joined the Vikings in 2006 when Brad Childress became coach and helped the defensive line establish a reputation as a sturdy, run-stopping unit. Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and Jared Allen all earned Pro Bowl invitations while playing under Dunbar. And this season, despite the well-documented struggles of the entire defense, the d-line may have had the most solid season of any Vikings’ position group, ranking 11th in the NFL against the run. The Vikings also tallied 50 sacks as a team with defensive end setting a new single-season team record with 22.

Still, after a 3-13 finish, Frazier has vowed to shake things up and make significant changes to his coaching staff. Dunbar’s exit is likely just the start of the revolving door at Winter Park.

Dunbar said he wasn’t able to diagnose the root cause of the Vikings’ 3-13 freefall.

“I’m a position coach,” he said. “I’m not a coordinator. I’m not a head coach. When I look at what I did with the Minnesota Vikings, my piece of the puzzle was to make the defensive line play as well as they could. We played well against the run. I think we finished No. 11 against the run. And we finished No. 1 in sacks. And the guy I coached led the league in sacks with 22 on a team that really didn’t have a lead the last eight games of the year. So I thought that was my piece of the puzzle. I can’t worry about running backs, defensive backs, receivers, linebackers. When you do it, you focus on your job, put your piece of the puzzle in and go from there.”

If your defence was putrid — and it was, between injuries and legal issues — someone has to be seen to pay, but why is the only guy whose players more than earned their salaries the first one to go? I just don’t get it.

January 2, 2012

Vikings lose to Bears, clinch third overall pick in the 2012 draft

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 13:32

The season ended just the most appropriate way possible: with a loss featuring dumb penalties, inconsistent play, and a not-quite-NFL-record-setting sack total from Jared Allen, the only Viking going to the Pro Bowl this year.

Tom Pelissero is predicting some swift changes in the coaching staff now that the season is done, almost certainly starting with the firing (or demotion) of defensive co-ordinator Fred Pagac:

(more…)

NFL week 17 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:33

Oh, well: finished the season tied for 33rd spot in the AoSHQ pool. If the Vikings had developed the habit of covering the spread, I’d have finished at least ten spots higher in the pool. I’m reminded of the very first football pool I ever entered (I won third prize, which slightly more than repaid my weekly contributions): the winner knew almost nothing about football but she decided her picks based on the colour of the teams’ uniforms or the interest she had in visiting the two competing cities. I should say also that she won in a walk: several points ahead of the number two player who was a football fanatic (I don’t know if he ever really got over the loss).

    √ Detroit 41 @Green Bay 45
    √ San Francisco 34 @St. Louis 27
    √ @Miami 19 New York (NYJ) 17
    ∅ @Minnesota 13 Chicago 17
    √ @New England 49 Buffalo 21
    √ @New Orleans 45 Carolina 17
    ∅ @Philadelphia 34 Washington 10
    √ @Jacksonville 19 Indianapolis 13
    ∅ Tennessee 23 @Houston 22
    √ @Atlanta 45 Tampa Bay 24
    √ Baltimore 24 @Cincinnati 16
    √ @Cleveland 9 Pittsburgh 13
    ∅ @Denver 3 Kansas City 7
    ∅ @Oakland 26 San Diego 38
    √ @Arizona 23 Seattle 20
    ∅ @New York (NYG) 31 Dallas 14

This week: 10-6 (8-8 against the spread)
Regular season: 152-104 (120-126 against the spread: 10 pushes)

January 1, 2012

NFL week 17 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 11:51

I’m hoping for a strong finish to the regular season, although I’m trailing the leaders in the AoSHQ pool pretty badly now. While I always pick Minnesota to win, this would be a good week — for draft positioning anyway — for them not to win against the Bears. If they lose today, the worst they’d be in the 2012 draft would be third: if they win, they could drop several spots.

    Detroit vs @Green Bay (3.5) Sun 1:00
    San Francisco vs @St. Louis (10.5) Sun 1:00
    @Miami vs New York (NYJ) (2.5) Sun 1:00
    @Minnesota vs Chicago (1.0) Sun 1:00
    @New England vs Buffalo (11.0) Sun 1:00
    @New Orleans vs Carolina (8.0) Sun 1:00
    @Philadelphia vs Washington (8.5) Sun 1:00
    @Jacksonville vs Indianapolis (3.5) Sun 1:00
    Tennessee vs @Houston (3.0) Sun 1:00
    @Atlanta vs Tampa Bay (12.0) Sun 1:00
    Baltimore vs @Cincinnati (2.0) Sun 4:15
    @Cleveland vs Pittsburgh (0) Sun 4:15
    @Denver vs Kansas City (3.5) Sun 4:15
    @Oakland vs San Diego (3.0) Sun 4:15
    @Arizona vs Seattle (3.0) Sun 4:15
    @New York (NYG) vs Dallas (3.0) Sun 8:30

Last week: 11-5 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 142-98

December 31, 2011

Vikings start to assess their greatest needs in the 2012 draft and free agency

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 11:17

With the final regular season game tomorrow, the Vikings will close up shop until the run-up to the draft. John Holler looks at the current roster and points to obvious areas of need that must be addressed before the start of the 2012 NFL season.

(more…)

December 27, 2011

NFL week 16 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:22

A good outing this week, but still not enough to move me very far back up the leaderboard in the AoSHQ pool. I’m now sharing 34th spot with two others (15 points behind the group leader).

    ∅ Houston 16 @Indianapolis 19
    ∅ Denver 14 @Buffalo 40
    √ @Cincinnati 23 Arizona 16
    ∅ @Tennessee 23 Jacksonville 17
    √ @Kansas City 13 Oakland 16
    √ @New England 27 Miami 24
    ∅ @New York (NYJ) 14 New York (NYG) 29
    √ @Pittsburgh 27 St. Louis 0
    √ @Washington 26 Minnesota 33
    √ @Carolina 48 Tampa Bay 16
    √ @Baltimore 20 Cleveland 14
    √ @Detroit 38 San Diego 10
    ∅ @Dallas 7 Philadelphia 20
    √ San Francisco 19 @Seattle 17
    √ @Green Bay 35 Chicago 21
    √ @New Orleans 45 Atlanta 16

This week: 11-5 (9-7 against the spread)
Season to date 142-98

December 25, 2011

Vikings win yesterday was bittersweet: they won the game, but lost Adrian Peterson

Filed under: Football, History, Military — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 14:00

The game at Washington was never going to change much in the playoff picture: neither team is going to the post-season this year, but both teams were playing for pride. In the end, the Vikings won despite losing their starting quarterback and all-world running back on sequential plays. The win was a bit of a palliative for a doomed season, but the injury to Adrian Peterson sets next season into question.

Christopher Gates dips into his history texts to find the best way to describe yesterday’s game:

Pyrrhic victory (PIR-ik VIK-tuh-ree) n. A victory that is offset by staggering losses

The term “phyrric victory” is named after King Pyrrhus of Epirus, who did battle with the Romans in the Battle of Heraclea in 280 B.C. and the Battle of Asculum in 279 B.C. In both battles, the Romans suffered greater casualties than Pyrrhus’ army did. . .however, the Romans had a significantly larger base from which to draw troops. So, in essence, Pyrrhus’ victories came at too high a price, as he even went so far as to say that another such victory would be his undoing.

That’s pretty much what we saw today at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C., as the Minnesota Vikings fought like hell when it would have been easy to roll over, and got themselves a 33-26 victory over the Washington Redskins. The victory guarantees that they will a) not be the single-worst team in Minnesota Vikings’ history in terms of win-loss record, and b) no longer eligible for the top overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

While I still think Christian Ponder will develop into a good, dependable NFL quarterback, I’ve been a fan of Joe Webb since he was drafted. I’m delighted to see that he is getting the opportunity to showcase his diverse skill set, and I’d be even happier if the team can work him into games more regularly.

(more…)

December 24, 2011

NFL week 16 predictions

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 10:13

It’s inexplicable why Indianapolis even tried to win Thursday night’s game, unless it’s a psychological ploy to play with the heads of fans in St. Louis and Minnesota (who suddenly have slightly more than a mathematical chance at the top pick in the 2012 draft due to the Colt’s unexpected win). Didn’t they get the message that they were supposed to “suck for Luck”?

    ∅ Houston 16 @Indianapolis 19
    Denver vs @Buffalo (3.0) Sat 1:00
    @Cincinnati vs Arizona (4.0) Sat 1:00
    @Tennessee vs Jacksonville (7.5) Sat 1:00
    @Kansas City vs Oakland (1.5) Sat 1:00
    @New England vs Miami (9.5) Sat 1:00
    @New York (NYJ) vs New York (NYG) (3.0) Sat 1:00
    @Pittsburgh vs St. Louis (0) Sat 1:00
    @Washington vs Minnesota (6.5) Sat 1:00
    @Carolina vs Tampa Bay (7.5) Sat 1:00
    @Baltimore vs Cleveland (13.0) Sat 1:00
    @Detroit vs San Diego (2.5) Sat 4:05
    @Dallas vs Philadelphia (2.0) Sat 4:15
    San Francisco vs @Seattle (2.5) Sat 4:15
    @Green Bay vs Chicago (13.0) Sat 8:20
    @New Orleans vs Atlanta (6.5) Mon 8:30

Last week: 6-10 (6-10 against the spread)
Season to date 131-94 (including Thursday’s result)

December 20, 2011

NFL week 15 results

Filed under: Football — Tags: — Nicholas @ 08:06

Early game results (which seemed to augur well for the rest of the picks):

    √ @Atlanta 41 Jacksonville 14
    √ Dallas 31 @Tampa Bay 15

The Sunday and Monday games (which totally contradicted the auguries):

    √ @Buffalo 23 Miami 30
    √ @Chicago 14 Seattle 38
    ∅ Tennessee 13 @Indianapolis 27
    ∅ Green Bay 14 @Kansas City 19
    √ Cincinnati 20 @St. Louis 13
    ∅ New Orleans 42 @Minnesota 20
    ∅ @New York (NYG) 10 Washington 23
    ∅ @Houston 13 Carolina 28
    ∅ Detroit 28 @Oakland 27
    ∅ New England 41 @Denver 23
    ∅ @Philadelphia 45 New York (NYJ) 19
    √ @Arizona 20 Cleveland 17
    ∅ Baltimore 14 @San Diego 34
    ∅ @San Francisco 20 Pittsburgh 3

    Last week: 6-10 (6-10 against the spread)
    Season to date 131-93

December 19, 2011

Drew Brees got his early Xmas gift from the Vikings

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:26

A few weeks ago, I said “If you really want to have your team’s quarterback enjoy an early Christmas gift, there’s nothing better than setting up a date with the Minnesota Vikings pass defence: your quarterback’s stats will improve dramatically after just one game!” I also predicted “Next week, it’ll be Drew Brees racking up a personal best passing performance for the New Orleans Saints.”

Perhaps I should go into the predicting-the-future business:

Drew Brees’ performance against the Vikings on Sunday wasn’t just brilliant, it was historically brilliant. According to the experts at NFL.com (via @DanBarreiroKFAN), Brees on Sunday became the first QB in NFL history with a game of 400+ yards, 5+ TDs and an 80%+ completion rate with no INTs. In other words, Brees’ gashing of the Vikings’ defense today was arguably the most incredible such mauling in the entire long and storied history of professional football.

Update: To say that the Vikings secondary is awful is merely acknowledging reality:

Here is Quarterback A: 69.1 completion percentage; 31 TD passes, 6 INTs; 110.8 passer rating.

Here is Quarterback B: 71.5 completion percentage; 37 TD passes, 11 INTs; 109.1 passer rating.

Quarterback B is Brees. Quarterback A is a combination of everyone who has thrown a pass against the Vikings this season. Yes, that includes Brees and Aaron Rodgers (twice), who are having phenomenal years.

But essentially the Conglomorate known as Quarterback A is having — at the very least — a Pro Bowl season. And if you want to go deeper, the 110.8 rating would be the 8th-best single-season passer rating in NFL history were it one QB. So you could say QBA is having an historic season.

Update, the second: Christopher Gates on the toxic waste pit masquerading as the secondary:

If Sean Payton had wanted Brees to throw for six hundred yards and seven touchdowns, he could have, and there wouldn’t have been a damn thing that the Vikings could have done about it. Because this might be the worst secondary in Vikings’ history. Worse than the Willie Teal years. . .worse than the Wasswa Serwanga/Robert Tate years. . .worse than any collection of secondary players in the 51 seasons that the Minnesota Vikings have been playing football.

Of all the current defensive backs on the Vikings roster, I can’t think of a single one that should feel confident that they’re even going to be on the team next season, let alone playing a significant role. That may sound like hyperbole, but I’m really not sure that it is. I mean, I don’t count Antoine Winfield in that, because he’s done for the year, but really. . .and nobody’s a bigger Winfield fan than I am. . .the guy turns 36 before camp next season. How long can you rely on him?

Chris Cook? The odds are just as good that he’ll be in prison in Week One of the 2012 NFL season than they are that he’ll be in the NFL. Husain Abdullah? Possibly, but now he’s fighting a concussion, and you can never really gauge how well a guy is going to come back from that. Outside of that, there is not one guy in this secondary that should be under the impression that their job is secure. Hell, right now our best defensive back. . .by a significant margin. . .is Benny Sapp, a guy that was watching games at home on his couch three weeks ago.

Update, 20 December: This picture explains why it’s a bad idea for Minnesota to try to come up with trick plays:

Yep. That’s Joe Webb, backup quarterback, faking a hand-off to Christian Ponder, starting quarterback. On a team that includes Adrian Peterson, the best running back in football. I loved this comment at the Daily Norseman from dsludo:

CP7 and Musgrave convo
CP7: What’s the play call?
BM: Derp
CP7 What are you talking about coach?
BM: Derp Derpity Derp
CP7: Fuck it, I’ll be the running back
BM: Derpity Herpity Derp
CP7: Webb you shotgun this shit. AP get back to the sidelines where you belong, while fucking over everyone’s fantasy team. Loadholt pretend you’re an NFL caliber Olineman.
Ready break.
CP7: Damn coach that didn’t work
BM: Derp it again
CP7: Seriously?
BM: Do I look serious, I SAID DERP IT AGAIN BITCH.

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