Quotulatiousness

April 30, 2016

Minnesota Vikings 2016 draft – second day

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 09:20

After Thursday’s rather undramatic and non-suspense-filled first round pick, where the team did the predictable thing and selected the best remaining wide receiver, day two of the draft promised to be a bit more exciting. “Trader Rick” Spielman must have been just itching to do some wheeling and dealing by this stage of the draft. And yet…

With their actual second round pick (I can’t believe I’m typing this), the Vikings selected Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. No slick trading. No fancy up-or-down-swapping. Almost like someone has forced “Trader Rick” to act completely out-of-character and use yet another draft pick in the original order …

Mackensie Alexander

Sorry, still in shock that we actually picked at the original spots consecutively…

Here’s what Sports Illustrated had to say about the Vikings’ second round pick:

Alexander has the best mirroring and transition speed of any cornerback in this class. Takes his receiver seamlessly from the first step throughout the route, and turns and flips on a dime to stay with them through quick-breaking and option routes. Has the chase and recovery speed to close in and deflect passes with good timing. Understands his movement in the deep routes, and gets his hand on the receiver and tracks the ball well throughout the throw. Great with angles and will use his body to cut routes to the quick. Transitions between man and bail coverage seamlessly, which is a process that many NFL cornerbacks find tough to handle. Excellent economy of motion allows him to play the entire field well.

Very contentious, competitive player who keeps the fight going all the way through—his battle against Oklahoma’s Sterling Shepard last season is a must-watch. Plays wide and tall coverage as an outside corner out of necessity; Clemson’s schemes left him without help in curl/flat routes and over the top at times. Good musculature for the position and will throw his body around against the run. Takes it upon himself to bring his game to a different level.

Some see this pick as creating competition at the nickel corner position for Captain Munnerlyn. Including Munnerlyn:

In the third round of the draft, Trader Rick finally managed to throw off the restraints and swapped Minnesota’s pick (at 86th overall) to Miami, in exchange for Miami’s 6th round pick (186th overall) plus Miami’s 2017 third and fourth round picks. I’d say that was a good exchange for the Vikings. The Dolphins used the pick acquired from Minnesota to select Rutgers wide receiver Leonte Caroo. ESPN‘s Ben Goessling explains the logic of the trade:

“There were a couple guys that we liked — we had two guys targeted,” Spielman said. “But then as I kept staring at the board — which we have a tendency to do a lot — I saw there were still a lot of good football players that we can potentially pick up tomorrow. There was enough depth in the draft this year that you’re going to get quality players. So to still be able to get quality players tomorrow, and kind of look into the future, potentially where your roster’s going to be in ’17 and how valuable those picks are going to become, I felt the trade was the right move for us.”

The Vikings now have six picks in the first four rounds of next year’s draft, when they could have some spots to fill after possibly parting with players due to hit free agency after 2016. The offensive line, for example, has five players set to hit free agency after the season, and the Vikings could have more use for those picks next year. Considering how many of their in-house free agents the Vikings retained, it sounds as though they know this year’s roster might be harder to crack. That would inherently depress the value of draft picks this year, and the Vikings chose to parlay a third-rounder into more high picks next season.

“I think you just look at where your current roster is, but that’s also why we try to plan for the future as well,” Spielman said. “I want to make sure that we always keep a competitive roster. Depending on what happens in 2017, just projecting what our roster could look like, just to have those draft picks next year is going to be valuable.”

QotD: “SETI is a religion”

Filed under: Quotations, Religion, Science, Space — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 01:00

Cast your minds back to 1960. John F. Kennedy is president, commercial jet airplanes are just appearing, the biggest university mainframes have 12K of memory. And in Green Bank, West Virginia at the new National Radio Astronomy Observatory, a young astrophysicist named Frank Drake runs a two-week project called Ozma, to search for extraterrestrial signals. A signal is received, to great excitement. It turns out to be false, but the excitement remains. In 1960, Drake organizes the first SETI conference, and came up with the now-famous Drake equation:

N=N*fp ne fl fi fc fL

[where N is the number of stars in the Milky Way galaxy; fp is the fraction with planets; ne is the number of planets per star capable of supporting life; fl is the fraction of planets where life evolves; fi is the fraction where intelligent life evolves; and fc is the fraction that communicates; and fL is the fraction of the planet’s life during which the communicating civilizations live.]

This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry. The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses — just so we’re clear — are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be “informed guesses.” If you need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make an informed guess. It’s simply prejudice.

As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science involves the creation of testable hypotheses. The Drake equation cannot be tested and therefore SETI is not science. SETI is unquestionably a religion. Faith is defined as the firm belief in something for which there is no proof. The belief that the Koran is the word of God is a matter of faith. The belief that God created the universe in seven days is a matter of faith. The belief that there are other life forms in the universe is a matter of faith. There is not a single shred of evidence for any other life forms, and in forty years of searching, none has been discovered. There is absolutely no evidentiary reason to maintain this belief. SETI is a religion.

Michael Crichton, “Aliens Cause Global Warming”: the Caltech Michelin Lecture, 2003-01-17.

April 29, 2016

Minnesota Vikings 2016 draft – first round

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 08:45

At the start of the first round of the draft, the Minnesota Vikings held the #23 pick. Given how frequently the team has depended on the wheeling-and-dealing skills of general manager “Trader Rick” Spielman, few of us were anticipating that the team would actually use that pick (although the Vikings actually did use their original first round pick in 2015).

Laquon Treadwell

The most frequently mentioned wide receiver to be drafted by the Vikings was Josh Doctson, but he went to the Washington Redskins just ahead of Minnesota’s pick, so Laquon Treadwell ended up being the team’s first round pick at the #23 slot. Before the draft began, ESPN’s Ben Goessling had bucked the trend by selecting Treadwell in the NFL Nation mock draft, saying:

The Vikings brought both Treadwell and Doctson to their top 30 event earlier this month, and either one would fit a need for a big receiver on the roster. Either could be a viable option for the Vikings on Thursday night. But I leaned toward Treadwell for a couple of reasons.

First, while the Ole Miss receiver has slipped in mock drafts after his slow 40 time (4.63 seconds at his pro day), he still brings much of what the Vikings need for their offense. At 6-foot-2 and 221 pounds, he has plenty of size to deal with press coverage, and he has shown an ability to both be physical with cornerbacks and separate from them with his footwork. His size and mentality also should help him as a run blocker — no small part of playing wide receiver in the Vikings’ offense — and he has displayed an impressive understanding of positioning while competing against cornerbacks in the SEC.

Doctson is the better deep threat, and he’ll do a better job of plucking balls over the top of defensive backs. But Teddy Bridgewater might benefit more from a receiver who can box out defenders and present a reliable target in the red zone.

It’s also worth noting that Treadwell doesn’t turn 21 until June, while Doctson will be 24 in December. They typically haven’t taken players as old as Doctson in the first round; in fact, he’d be the Vikings’ oldest first-round selection since Todd Steussie in 1994. That doesn’t rule him out, but especially when the Vikings are looking for a receiver who can grow with their 23-year-old quarterback, it shouldn’t be discounted.

(more…)

Dividing Up The Middle East – The Sykes-Picot Agreement I THE GREAT WAR Week 92

Filed under: Britain, Europe, France, History, Middle East, Military, WW1 — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 08:22

Published on 28 Apr 2016

The secret agreement between France, Britain and Russia that was signed this week 100 years ago was a turning point in the relations to the Arab world. It negated all future promises made by the British and still has consequences 100 years later. The Middle East was becoming more and more important to the British in 1916 and people like T.E. Lawrence are starting to become major players in the background.

QotD: American liberty

The American of today, in fact, probably enjoys less personal liberty than any other man of Christendom, and even his political liberty is fast succumbing to the new dogma that certain theories of government are virtuous and lawful, and others abhorrent and felonious. Laws limiting the radius of his free activity multiply year by year: It is now practically impossible for him to exhibit anything describable as genuine individuality, either in action or in thought, without running afoul of some harsh and unintelligible penalty. It would surprise no impartial observer if the motto “In God we trust” were one day expunged from the coins of the republic by the Junkers at Washington, and the far more appropriate word, “verboten,” substituted. Nor would it astound any save the most romantic if, at the same time, the goddess of liberty were taken off the silver dollars to make room for a bas-relief of a policeman in a spiked helmet. Moreover, this gradual (and, of late, rapidly progressive) decay of freedom goes almost without challenge; the American has grown so accustomed to the denial of his constitutional rights and to the minute regulation of his conduct by swarms of spies, letter-openers, informers and agents provocateurs that he no longer makes any serious protest.

H.L. Mencken, The American Credo: A Contribution toward the Interpretation of the National Mind, 1920.

April 28, 2016

Vikings draft needs for 2016

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 03:00

As I say every year at around this time, I don’t know who the Vikings are planning to draft this year (because I don’t follow college football), but there are some positional needs that the team will probably address between Thursday and Saturday as the 2016 NFL draft unfolds. One position we can confidently predict won’t be high on the list is quarterback: the 32nd pick of the 2014 draft is still the incumbent starting quarterback and (most of us hope) Teddy Bridgewater will continue to develop in his third season in the league. Which leads to the first few draft needs most fans can readily identify:

  • Wide receiver. The Greg Jennings experiment didn’t yield the results the team had hoped for in 2014 (even though Greg Jennings is always open). The Mike Wallace experiment likewise failed to live up to eleven-million-dollars-worth of expectations in 2015. Will the (fill-in-the-blank) experiment finally energize the Vikings’ passing attack in 2016? The mock drafts this year are pretty insistent that the Vikings will draft TCU receiver Josh Doctson with the 23rd pick, unless Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss) is still available … or (fill-in-the-blank).
  • Offensive line. Teddy Bridgewater apologists can reasonably point to the fact that the Vikings’ offensive line was … sub-optimal in 2015, which translated into Bridgewater being pressured more than any other NFL quarterback last season. Shoring up the line is a pretty good way to give the QB enough time to finally find his downfield receivers. Veteran center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt should be back from serious injuries that kept them off the field for the entire 2015 regular season. Free agent additions of guard Alex Boone and tackle Andre Smith provide depth and flexibility (particularly in allowing Brandon Fusco to return to his natural right guard position after a terrible season at left guard). It wouldn’t be surprising to see the team add a high draft pick to the OL group this year.
  • Safety. While Harrison Smith has been establishing himself as one of the best safeties in the league, the team hasn’t been able to provide him with a complementary player to allow Smith to fully exploit his opportunities. While there’s still a chance that the “other” safety is already on the roster (Andrew Sendejo?, Antone Exum?, Anthony Harris? free agent addition Michael Griffin?), a number of players have rotated through that position without really establishing a legitimate claim. According to several stories, this isn’t a draft that is deep in potential safety help, it wouldn’t be surprising to find the Vikings drafting a safety during the first three rounds this week.
  • Linebacker. Much has been written over the last few months about the Vikings’ need for another linebacker, but with the team having used a first (Anthony Barr, 2014) and a second round pick (Eric Kendricks, 2015) on the linebacker position in the last two years, it would have to be a phenomenal player falling unexpectedly to tempt Spielman and company to draft yet another linebacker this high.
  • Defensive tackle. On first glance, this is a strength of the team, but injuries exposed some unexpected weaknesses in the depth chart in 2015 (Linval Joseph’s turf toe, Shamar Stephan went to IR, Sharif Floyd had multiple injuries, and Tom Johnson turns 32 this year). Adding a developmental player here makes a good deal of sense in this year’s draft.
  • Punter. It would not be a huge surprise to see the Vikings draft a punter this year. It would be a surprise to see them draft one before the sixth round, however. Incumbent Jeff Locke hasn’t been covering himself in glory since he was drafted in the fifth round of the 2013 draft.

Wargaming at the Marine Corps War College

Filed under: Gaming, Military, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 02:00

Professor James Lacey explains why he introduced commercial wargames into his curriculum for USMC officers at the war college:

As every team plotted their strategic “ends,” students soon realized that neither side had the resources — “means” — to do everything they wanted. Strategic decisions quickly became a matter of tradeoffs, as the competitors struggled to find the “ways” to secure sufficient “means” to achieve their objectives (“ends”). For the first time, students were able to examine the strategic options of the Peloponnesian War within the strictures that limited the actual participants in that struggle.

Remarkably, four of the five Athenian teams actually attacked Syracuse on Sicily’s east coast! As they were all aware that such a course had led to an Athenian disaster 2,500 years before, I queried them about their decision. Their replies were the same: Each had noted that the Persians were stirring, which meant there was a growing threat to Athens’ supply of wheat from the Black Sea. As there was an abundance of wheat near Syracuse, each Athenian team decided to secure it as a second food source (and simultaneously deny it to Sparta and its allies) in the event the wheat from the Black Sea was lost to them. Along the way, two of the teams secured Pylos so as to raise helot revolts that would damage the Spartan breadbasket. Two of the teams also ended revolts in Corcyra, which secured that island’s fleet for Athenian purposes, and had the practical effect of blockading Corinth. So, it turns out there were a number of good strategic reasons for Athens to attack Syracuse. Who knew? Certainly not any War College graduate over the past few decades.

All of these courses of action were thoroughly discussed by each team, as were Spartan counter moves. For the first time in my six years at the Marine Corps War College, I was convinced that the students actually understood the range of strategies and options Thucydides wrote about. In the following days, I was stopped dozens of times by students who wanted discuss other options they might have employed, and, even better, to compare their decisions to what actually happened. A number of students told me they were still thinking about various options and decisions weeks later. I assure you that no one even spent even a car ride home thinking about my Thucydides lectures.

[…]

At the end of each wargame, students walked away with a new appreciation of the historical circumstances of the period and the events they had read about and discussed in class. And even though all wargames are an abstract of actual events, I am sure that no student exposed to historical gaming will ever again read about the Peloponnesian War without thinking about Sicily’s wheat, the crucial importance of holding the Isthmus of Corinth, or what could have been done with a bit more Persian silver in the coffers of one side or the other’s treasury. Similarly, the next time one of this year’s students reads about Lee and Grant in 1864, they will also be thinking about how the truly decisive actions took place out west. For, as it was during the actual conflict, in every game the students played, Grant’s role was to pin down the Army of Northern Virginia, while the western armies ripped out the economic heart of the Confederacy.

In fact, I was astounded at the number of students who approached me after the Civil War exercise to mention that despite having studied the Civil War before, this was the first time they realized that the war was won in the west. I could go on for another few thousand words discussing other revelations students experienced through gaming and simulations, but the key point is that these experiential learning experiences linger in students’ minds for a very long time. I once asked my seminars how many of them had discussed the games and their results with their spouses. Every hand went up. I am quite sure that very few of them ever discussed one of my lectures with their spouses.

QotD: That’s why they call it “Sex Education”

Filed under: Education, Health, Humour, Quotations — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 01:00

I’m on the road in Thailand, speaking at a U.N. conference on sustainable A development in the Third World. Earlier today I listened to a presentation on the effects of sex education for women. The presentation mentioned some cultural value conflicts about sex education, but it occurred to me that it didn’t touch the biggest one. To wit: worldwide, the teachers want the kids to learn abstinence, but what the kids [want] to learn is technique.

Eric S. Raymond, “That’s Why They Call It ‘Sex Education'”, Armed and Dangerous, 2002-05-20.

April 27, 2016

Suleiman the Magnificent – III: Sultan of Sultans – Extra History

Filed under: History, Middle East — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 03:00

Published on 26 Mar 2016

The victorious Suleiman begins to consolidate his empire and his home. With Ibrahim and his favorite concubine, Roxelana, by his side, he reorganizes the empire and begins his great work: a book of laws. But Hungary still stands untaken, and he must have it.

Suleiman had made so many decisions out of earnest love, but now he could only look back with regret…

Suleiman returned from his campaigns to find that two of his sons had died of illness that year, but also that his favorite concubine had borne him a new son. Her name was Roxelana, and although she was only a Polish slave, he loved her deeply and soon elevated her to become his legal wife, the Hürrem Sultan. He also promoted his best friend, Ibrahim, up the ranks until he finally appointed him grand vizier. With these two ruling at his side, he felt ready to take on the world. But Ahmed Pasha, his second vizier, was jealous of Ibrahim. He’d expected to get the position of grand vizier for himself, and when he didn’t, he asked for a governorship of Egypt instead – which he then used to mount a rebellion against Suleiman. His rebellion triggered a wave of uprisings through the empire. Suleiman sent Ibrahim to quell them all, which he did, and then reorganized the provinces to break up the power blocs that had acted against his sultan. At the same time, Suleiman had begun working on a great work of law, reforming the hodgepodge legal heritage of the Ottmans into a unified code that would guide the empire for the rest of its days. While it was still in progress, he saw an opportunity to reach for Hungary again and he took it. His troops marched through a torrential downpour of rain until they encountered the Hungarian troops on the Field of Mohács. Impetuous nobles had pushed the young King Louis II to take the field and go on the offensive, despite being outnumbered and outgunned by the vast Ottoman force. Their brave but foolhardy charge failed, and the Ottomans surrounded and destroyed them. Although Suleiman wept over the corpse of the young king, calling his death a tragedy, he did not shy from claiming his victory and declaring Hungary his own.

QotD: The essentially bipolar nature of progressive ideology

Filed under: Politics, Quotations, USA — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 01:00

Historians and political theorists have long puzzled over how to resolve the glaring contradiction of Progressive ideology — namely, that Progressive “reform” emphasizes greater “democracy,” and championed innovations like the direct election of Senators, the initiative and referendum, etc. Give the people what they want! Up with democracy! At the same time, Progressives also advanced the theory of government administration deliberately remote from politics and popular accountability — the Administrative State staffed by elite “experts.” We can’t have those grubby people telling the government what to do! Down with democracy!

Steven Hayward, “Resolving the Contradiction of ‘Progressivism'”, Power Line, 2016-04-18.

April 26, 2016

Body Armor – Fortress Design – Belgian Armoured Car Division I OUT OF THE TRENCHES

Filed under: Europe, History, Military, WW1 — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 02:00

Published on 25 Apr 2016

It’s Chair of Wisdom time again and this week we talk about the experiments with body armor of World War 1, fortress design and the Belgian Armoured Car Division.

QotD: Sadly, looks do matter

Filed under: Health, Media, Quotations — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 01:00

If you’re a woman who wants to land a man, there’s this notion that you should be able to go around looking like Ernest Borgnine: If you’re “beautiful on the inside,” that’s all that should count. Right. And I should have a flying car and a mansion in Bel Air with servants and a moat.

Welcome to Uglytopia — the world reimagined as a place where it’s the content of a woman’s character, not her pushup bra, that puts her on the cover of Maxim. It just doesn’t seem fair to us that some people come into life with certain advantages — whether it’s a movie star chin or a multimillion-dollar shipbuilding inheritance. Maybe we need affirmative action for ugly people; make George Clooney rotate in some homely women between all his gorgeous girlfriends. While we wish things were different, we’d best accept the ugly reality: No man will turn his head to ogle a woman because she looks like the type to buy a turkey sandwich for a homeless man or read to the blind.

[…]

It turns out that the real beauty myth is the damaging one Wolf and other feminists are perpetuating — the absurd notion that it serves women to thumb their noses at standards of beauty. Of course, looks aren’t all that matter (as I’m lectured by female readers of my newspaper column when I point out that male lust seems to have a weight limit). But looks matter a great deal. The more attractive the woman is, the wider her pool of romantic partners and range of opportunities in her work and day-to-day life. We all know this, and numerous studies confirm it — it’s just heresy to say so.

Amy Alkon, “The Truth About Beauty”, Psychology Today, 2010-11-01.

April 25, 2016

The Battle of Jutland

Filed under: Britain, Europe, Germany, History, Military, WW1 — Tags: — Nicholas @ 02:00

The Battle of Jutland Animation from NIck on Vimeo.

QotD: Epitaph

Filed under: Humour, Quotations — Tags: — Nicholas @ 01:00

If, after I depart this vale, you ever remember me and have thought to please my ghost, forgive some sinner and wink your eye at some homely girl.

H.L. Mencken, “Epitaph”, Smart Set, 1921-12.

April 24, 2016

The Easter Rising – Ireland in World War 1 I THE GREAT WAR Special

Filed under: Britain, Europe, History, Military, WW1 — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 03:00

Published on 23 Apr 2016

Easter 1916 was a turning point for Ireland and its situation between Home Rule and Irish soldiers serving on the fronts of Gallipoli and the Western Front. And even though the Easter Rising, the first armed uprising against the British was unsuccessful, the spark for Irish nationalism ultimately led to the establishment of the Irish Republic.

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