Quotulatiousness

September 15, 2015

Monday Night Football – Vikings at San Francisco … well, that happened

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:23

Minnesota Vikings fans were very optimistic about the first game of the regular season, with hopes that Teddy Bridgewater would continue his ascent from the end of last season, excitement over Adrian Peterson returning after nearly a full year away from the game, and the promise of speedy new wide receiver Mike Wallace to stretch the field. In a few cases, that optimism might have lasted into the second quarter. Last night was a bad, bad game for the Vikings. The defensive line, supposedly a strength of the team, was giving up first downs like party favours. When the Vikings got the ball, we saw three quick incomplete passes and the punting unit came out. The offensive line was worse than advertised: at one point Teddy basically got sacked by his own right tackle as he ran for his life deep in the backfield (http://streamable.com/p0oa). It was almost as if the preseason had been extended one more game, and nobody in a Vikings jersey seemed to be mentally prepared to play a real football game.

At the Daily Norseman, Ted Glover delivers the Stock Market Report on the game:

Blue Chip Stocks:

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, you’re kidding me, right?

Well, Mike Zimmer’s press conference tomorrow might be an all time epic rant. But that’s about it.

Solid Investments:

Mike Wallace, WR: The guy that came over in a trade with Miami has to be thinking what the hell, yo? But he was about the only guy that provided an offensive spark, at least while the game was still competitive–I SEE YOU KYLE RUDOLPH.

[…]

Junk Bonds:

The Offensive Line: One of the big concerns we collectively had coming in to the season was how the offensive line would hold up. If week one was any indication, we should be having a funeral and wake for Teddy Bridgewater sometime about the third quarter in week seven. That was brutal, man. Worse than brutal. I don’t know what’s more brutal–the o-line play in week one, or Trent Dilfer on the mic. We had to endure both.

Adrian Peterson, former Gulag Prisoner: So this is a funny story. Right after my fantasy draft, I damn near traded Aaron Rodgers for AP, straight up. I hedged at the last minute, because of the o-line. I am a genius for not making that trade. Peterson wasn’t able to get anything going, except for one pretty ridiculous catch and pinball wizard run, and overall, he was quieter than than a mute in a soundproof room.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB: Man, I had such high hopes for Teddy coming into week one. But as the game went on, he was running for his life, and making decisions that were more questionable than a drunk teenager. I think this game is an anomaly, but still…Teddy gave me a sad.

Blair Walsh, K: I don’t know about you guys, but personally, I’m going to JUST FREAKING LOVE chewing my fingernails to the bone wondering if, on any given kick this year, Walsh might actually make it, becase right now it’s 50-50, at best. It will give us a lot of excitement in what is looking to be a possibly grim season.

(more…)

Sweden during World War 1 – Balancing Neutrality I THE GREAT WAR Special

Filed under: Europe, History, WW1 — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 07:36

Published on 14 Sep 2015

Sweden was neutral during the Great War and like all neutral countries in World War 1 it was affected by the global conflict. Balancing neutrality between the Central Powers and the Entente while also maintaining trade with both sides was not easy – but very profitable. Especially the trade with Germany was very lucrative since it was circumventing the British Naval Blockade. But that was not the only effect the war had on Sweden which became the nation it is today during WW1.

Tyler Cowen’s primer on Chinese economics

Filed under: China, Economics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 03:00

At Marginal Revolution Tyler Cowen pulls together the key economic points you need to know to understand what is happening in China’s economic downturn:

1. You can’t invest 45-50 percent of your GDP very well forever. It’s amazing how long China’s run has been, but it is over. The quality of their marginal investments is now low and that means their growth rate will be much lower too. The low hanging fruit is gone, at least for the time being. They might later on resurrect some new low-hanging fruit through institutional reform, we’ll see if they end up stuck in the middle income trap but right now they are at a sharp discontinuity.

2. There is no simple way to switch to a “consumption-driven” economy without the growth rate both falling and staying permanently lower. Structural reforms are absolutely called for, but in this context they represent a surrender to a lower rate of growth and thus they are especially difficult to pull off in a politically sustainable manner.

3. The Chinese have been growing at ten percent or nearly ten percent for about thirty-five years. More than a generation of Chinese is used to treating the risk premium as if they don’t have to worry about it. I shudder to think what economic and also political decisions have been made on that basis.

4. The Chinese economic response to the dwindling of their low-hanging fruit is sharp rather than smooth because there is a sudden revision of expectations, as people realize the risk premium isn’t zero after all. And seeing the others see that causes the new set of beliefs to spread pretty quickly. That is a very painful process for a macroeconomy, and it is not well captured by simple AD-AS analysis, although of course it has implications for both AD and AS.

5. I would not so quickly infer that the Chinese government is stupid when it comes to economics. It is true their actions do not correspond to what professional economists would recommend. But they are painted into a very unpleasant corner and have lots of interest groups to feed. Their observed response is possibly explained by some kind of public choice-constrained, nested game, internal conflict-driven seventh-best response. They were smart a few years ago, and they are still smart now. That doesn’t mean they will end up doing a good job.

6. Avoid mood affiliation! You can be a pessimist about the Chinese recession now without being a) a pessimist about China in the longer run, or b) a pessimist about Chinese political stability. Those are separate albeit related questions, and you are not forced to have the same mood response to all of them.

Ontario wineries and the demands of the Chinese market

Filed under: Business, Cancon, China, Wine — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 02:00

In the most recent edition of his wine review newsletter, Michael Pinkus just barely avoids sounding like an editorialist from the anti-Chinese era of American yellow journalism (er, sorry) over Chinese money being used to buy up Ontario wineries to concentrate on icewine production for the Chinese market:

Hinterbrook, Joseph’s, Marynissen, Alvento, Lailey – all wineries in Niagara that have seen a major shake-up of ownership over the past few years; in fact it is reported that about 8 or so wineries have seen new ownership, which potentially can be seen as a good thing: a revitalized interest in wineries in Ontario’s largest growing area.

Now before I go any further, I’m sure this topic is going to spark some controversy and some of the comments I’ll make might come off a tad inflammatory, but hear me out over the next few paragraphs.

The majority of these wineries have been purchased by those of Oriental decent, namely Chinese interests, who see exporting Ontario Icewine back to the homeland as a path paved with gold … On the positive side this provides wineries and workers with jobs, another bonus is that Icewine is still being made here at home, instead of being falsified, forged, misappropriated, and wrongly-labelled elsewhere; and some longtime growers and owners are finally cashing-in after a lifetime of tilling the soil, and growing the grapes to make the wines we all know and love … but at what cost to the industry and reputation of Ontario wine?

We have been battling a snake-belly-low reputation for years – one that never lets us forget we put Baby Duck and inferior Baco Noirs (with apologies to Henry of Pelham) into bottle. Now we have some of our most beloved names (namely Lailey and Marynissen) seemingly on the brink of becoming Icewine houses. The fear here is that Ontario will be bought up by foreign interests and our wines moved off-shore, and most, if not all our grapes used for the purpose of making Icewine – for all intents and purposes killing off our quality domestic dry wine production.

These fears were realized once again in July after reports were confirmed that Lailey had been sold. They then closed their doors for “renovations”, subsequently re-opened to sell their remaining inventory, and netted their entire 2015 crop to be used in the production of Icewine … As the French say, “quel domage!” (what a pity) – those beautiful old vines of Chardonnay and Pinot Noir, that fantastic Syrah, the Sauvignon Blanc … all the grapes that were lovingly nurtured so that they produced the fruit to make wines full of terroir / character will go into lifeless sweet Icewine. Frustration and dismay were echoed time and time again on Twitter and FaceBook with the hashtag “RIPLailey”.

No matter how we may try to romanticize them, wineries are just businesses. Not only businesses, but farm-related businesses. Farming is a hell of a way to earn a living — ask any farmer — so if someone comes up to your farm gate and offers you enough money to sell up … at least some farmers/grape growers/winery owners are going to take the cash and split. From the list of wineries that Michael lists, I’d had poor experiences at three of them … bad enough that I’ve never been back. If my experiences were typical of other customers, then selling up was a great thing for the former owners. Treat your customers like shit, don’t expect them to come back (but do expect them to mention you to all their friends).

If someone thinks that it’s worth the money to buy up these places and convert them to all-icewine production and concentrate on exporting to China, great. More wineries are opening every month, so the loss of a few under-performing (and customer-abusing) “old names” has more chance to improve the overall wine scene in Ontario.

QotD: The Ex-Im Bank

Filed under: Business, Politics, Quotations, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 01:00

… every time the Ex-Im Bank gets involved in a deal, there are only two possibilities: The government is needlessly subsidizing something that would have happened anyway, giving away cheap money to a huge corporation. Or else it’s subsidizing a deal that wouldn’t have happened anyway, in which case we are defending the use of taxpayer dollars to sell cheap manufactured goods to foreigners. It’s not even as if we’re picking out especially needy foreigners, who may require a charitable contribution from the prosperous citizens of the United States; the subsidy is distributed on the basis of who is willing to, say, buy cut-rate U.S. airframes. And guess who benefits? U.S. corporations that export a lot.

This is not a good use of taxpayer dollars, and conservative ideologues, bless their hearts, are quite right to want to get rid of it. Their passion is a little out of proportion to the harm that this agency does, but even a small step in the right direction is better than none. The bank’s opponents concede that. For them, the appeal of taking on Ex-Im is that they might be able to take it down.

Against this impeccable economic and political logic, the bank’s supporters marshal a few arguments. First, they often claim (as Nocera implies) that the Ex-Im Bank generates a lot of money for the Treasury. Which is sort of true … except. First of all, it doesn’t account for the opportunity costs of the distortion; resources are diverted into production of certain goods, and away from others. And second of all, government accounting for loans is rather weird. According to the Congressional Budget Office, if we used a fair value accounting method, which would account for the risk of changing market conditions, the Ex-Im Bank’s six largest programs would be generating a deficit, not a surplus.

We are also told that Ex-Im is a vital matter of national security. I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m pretty sure that if the U.S. government needs to find some money to give foreigners as a vital matter of national security, they will manage to find it even if the Ex-Im Bank is shuttered and its silent halls hold only the lingering ghosts of departed exporters.

Megan McArdle, “Ex-Im Bank Is a Tiny But Tempting Target”, Bloomberg View, 2015-08-03.

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