Quotulatiousness

October 7, 2013

I didn’t see this deal coming

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 08:32

The bye week is supposed to be a fairly quiet time for an NFL team … get away from the team facilities, rest up, and (especially) stay out of trouble. It’s not such a quiet time for the coaches or the front office, of course, as the business side of the league year continues through the bye week pretty much without a pause. One of the things a team will often do during a bye is look for players who could help the team out due to injuries or sub-par play. I would not have been surprised to see the Vikings work out a number of defensive backs over the last week — the corners have been a significant weak spot so far this season.

What I didn’t expect, however, was a move to sign another quarterback:

1500ESPN‘s Andrew Krammer has more:

Freeman, 25, was in his fourth full season as the starter in Tampa Bay before the Buccaneers benched their former 17th-overall pick after an 0-3 start. A reported schism between Freeman and coach Greg Schiano led to Freeman’s attempted trade and ultimate release.

He’s got a 24-35 record as a starter, regressing after his best statistical season in 2010, when the Buccaneers finished 10-6 off of Freeman’s Pro Bowl year — 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

In a little more than two seasons since, Freeman is 11-23 as a starter, with 45 touchdowns to 42 interceptions. He lost eight of his last nine games in Tampa Bay.

Freeman was the third quarterback selected in the 2009 draft, behind Matthew Stafford (1st) and Mark Sanchez (5th). He’s the only of the three without a playoff appearance.

The Vikings now find themselves with three somewhat serviceable quarterbacks in Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and Freeman. Ponder began the season to the tune of five interceptions and two fumbles in an 0-3 start before a rib injury sidelined him before the team’s Sept. 29 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers in London. Cassel threw for two touchdown and no interceptions in the 34-27 win, but coach Leslie Frazier was noncommital during the bye week in choosing a starter.

Last week, when Freeman’s release from the Buccaneers was announced, Arif Hasan was quick to point out that he might be an excellent fit for Minnesota:

But there’s significant reason to believe that’s not the final chapter on Josh Freeman. Over the last two years, Freeman generated 6.5 net yards per passing attempt and 6 adjusted net yards per passing attempt-good for 11th and 16th in the league, respectively.

He hasn’t been the most accurate passer, but he generally makes up for it with deep throws, having hit 13.3 yards per completion was the second-best in the league, just after Cam Newton. In fact, his average depth of target-passes completed and missed-was an astonishing 10.7, tied for first in the league alongside Colin Kaepernick and Andrew Luck (second was Joe Flacco at 10.6).

It would be a far cry from the offense that Minnesota has run so far, and it may even turn out that Josh Freeman isn’t a fit in the Bill Musgrave offense.

But the designs of an offensive coordinator who may not even be around next year shouldn’t hold back signing a talented young quarterback who could take full advantage of Cordarrelle Patterson, Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings.

[…]

in Pro Football Focus‘ game tracking, Josh Freeman was asked to throw outside the numbers on deep passes nearly twice as often as an average NFL quarterback.

And he does better than the average quarterback on those passes, too. Generally speaking, quarterbacks in the NFL will connect on deep, outside the numbers passes 32.8 percent of the time and average 10.8 yards an attempt.

Josh Freeman has a lower completion rate on those passes (30.8 percent) but better yards per attempt (11.8) along with better touchdown and interception rates.

But being asked to pass those difficult throws without much outlet relief or other options makes him too easy to defend and creates a wholly inconsistent offense. It cannot be overstated how important it is to have intermediate and shorter routes available (especially over the middle of the field) if there are a number of routes that go deep. It is one thing to have a poor deep ball passing completion accuracy, but it is another thing entirely to be forced to throw passes, even when covered, because there are no other options available because of the scheme.

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