Quotulatiousness

September 23, 2013

Merkel’s victory

Filed under: Economics, Europe, Germany, Politics — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 11:06

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives won re-election yesterday, but their Free Democrat coalition partners did not earn enough votes to retain their seats in the Bundestag, so a new coalition will may have to be formed. The Economist has more:

Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany for eight years, seems likely to stay in office for a few more. She has won for her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a sparkling election result, with about 42% of the vote when including its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, according to exit polls and estimates. Depending on how the smaller parties fare, that may even suffice for an absolute majority of seats in parliament, allowing Mrs Merkel to govern without a coalition partner as only Konrad Adenauer, also of the CDU, did in the 1950s.

But as of the evening of this election day, September 22nd, other outcomes were still possible. For one, voters delivered a stinging rebuke to Mrs Merkel’s current coalition partner, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP). Having been thrown out of the Bavarian state parliament a week ago, and the state parliament of Hesse today, the FDP seemed likely to be ejected from the federal parliament as well. Its leadership will have to go, its message will have to be renewed, if it is to have any future in German politics.

The greatest unknown on this Sunday evening is the fate of the newest party in German politics, the euro-sceptic (as in: sceptic about the euro, not necessarily the European Union) Alternative for Germany. At 4.9% in the exit polls, it teeters on the edge of the 5% threshold necessary to get into parliament.

Earlier this year, I linked to a Zero Hedge piece which predicted if not the end of the world, the end of stability in Europe following this particular electoral outcome:

There will be nothing but lying until September 22, 2013 which is the date of the German elections. This is the drop dead date that I have been asked about for so long. Then, as soon as the celebration is over that Ms. Merkel is to remain in power, the world will turn on its axis. The status quo will disappear and there will be a “shock and horror” campaign as the Southern nations of Europe demand more help and Germany squirms and then refuses to provide it because it does not have the assets to do so.

Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and even Italy are all going to line up at the trough only to discover that the promise of water was just that, a promise, and does not exist. A Biblical drought will be upon the Continent and from the political battles will emerge new alliances and new screams calling the traitors by name. The twin towers upon which the markets rest, money from nothing and fairy tale financials, will decompose in the light of this new sun and our old friend, Fear, will return to haunt us.

Let us cast our eyes toward Berlin and see whether this is prophecy or mere doom-mongering.

The venerable B-52 – “sturdy, cheap, and good enough for government work”

Filed under: Military, USA — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 10:24

Steve Chapman talks about the BUFF:

This bomber is the combat aircraft that will not die. In 1977, when Congress was debating whether to build a replacement called the B-1, the complaint was that the B-52 was older than the pilots flying it. This fact was supposed to capture its obsolete character and sagging decrepitude.

The pilots of the 1970s may no longer be fit for duty, and other planes of that era can be found only in museums. But the B-52, which began production in 1952 and stopped in 1962, has defied the actuarial tables. Air Force Capt. Daniel Welch is piloting a plane that his father flew during the Cold War and his grandfather flew in Vietnam, The Los Angeles Times recently reported.

Don’t be surprised if another generation of the family is in the cockpit before it goes into retirement. The Air Force plans improvements that will keep the plane around till 2040.

[…]

One of its virtues is relatively low cost, which presumably makes the Pentagon more willing to use it. The high price tags on the B-1 and the B-2 Stealth bomber mean the Air Force can’t buy as many of them and has to exercise more caution about putting them in harm’s way.

Another factor is that while more advanced aircraft possess capabilities that are rarely needed, the B-52 is perfectly adequate for most real-world contingencies. MIT defense scholar Owen Cote told me that since the 1990s, “we’ve been essentially continuously at war against smaller powers with weak or nonexistent air defenses, against whom the range, persistence and versatile payloads of the B-52 can be invaluable.”

The inevitable late-night infomercial of the very near future

Filed under: Humour, Media, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 09:42

Zero Hedge peeks just a short distance into your insomniac TV watching future:

(A middle-aged man in an military uniform, loaded with medals, four stars on his epaulets, is sitting in a futuristic office setting on a chair occupying a command position. He puts down a folder he is reading and looks up at the camera.)

Do you know me? Well, I know you.

(He wags his finger as if counting)

Each and every one of you.

I know everything there is to know about you. But enough about that. I’m here today to tell you about a special offer, a first time offer never before available to the general public.

(Man assumes a more relaxed mien, stands and walks slowly toward camera)

Hi, I’m General Keith Alexander, coming to you from the flight deck of the starship… well, it’s just my office, but it’s The Bomb, no? Hey, don’t you repeat that or you might get some unwanted attention. I want to tell you today about something we call simply: The NSA Tapes. This is the greatest and most complete collection of audio and video recordings every assembled anywhere in one place. You cannot buy this in stores, or over the internet. Only here, at the NSA, does the technology exist to capture at this level and at this quality.

The Prism Collection, our basic model, has everything you’d expect in a surreptitious data grab. It has “Phone Sex America: The Connoisseur Series”. It has “Hollywood Sex-ting Kittens”.

(He pauses, looks over the top of his reading glasses, and speaks.)

And let me tell you, if you enjoyed Miley Cyrus twerking, you are going to love what she tells Liam Hemsworth about things he can do to that little booty of hers.

It also has one of my favorites, and I’m sure it will be a favorite of yours, too. Yes, from the Instagram Album we have “Buck Naked Coed Selfies of the Ivy League”. If you’re like me, you’ll know where you’d like to cram for that upcoming exam.

[…]

And if you order in the next ten minutes, we’ll also throw in, just to say thanks, a one year supply of bathroom tissue, each sheet embossed with the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution of this once great nation.

(Another voice breaks in and speaks rapidly)

Shipping and handling $4.95 per item, $7.95 by black van, and rush orders $11.95 by drone.)

(Alexander speaks again)

Call now. Our operators are already listening.

The growth of Canadian cities in the postwar era

Filed under: Cancon, Economics, Government — Tags: , , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:23

Caleb McMillan has a brief history of the Canadian city after World War 2:

The end of World War 2 marks a good beginning point for this history. North American society went through some big changes and the cities reflect that. In Canada, The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation was created and with it came the regulatory framework that vastly increased the government’s presence in housing. Government intervention — however — always has its unintended consequences. Post WW2, the Canadian government expanded its highway system, got involved in the mortgage business, and allowed provincial and municipal governments to plan and amalgamate city communities. Through monopoly power, central plans have a tendency to hollow out downtown cores that serve the interests of the market. The “Suburban City” is the result of government control over zoning laws and highway construction. These types of communities are sometimes very different from ones created by market means.

While high urban density can be viewed as good or bad, in terms of city functionality, density is a prerequisite for prosperity. City downtowns are market centres. Resources from the periphery are brought to market centres for trade, and within these centres live the people who deal with this market everyday. It has always been the rural farmers and trappers who were the ones on the edge of poverty — surviving the bare elements of nature to reap the rewards later in the city. The city was the centrepiece in the division of labour; a place to go to make a name of ones self. “Simple country living” that suburbia is supposed to reflect was always a Utopian dream. That somehow one could live out in the boonies yet receive the luxuries of a city.

The very idea of “simple country living” was probably an aristocratic notion that somehow took hold of the middle class imagination, because until the 20th century, only the upper classes could afford the luxury of maintaining a residence well outside the cities, yet still well-supplied with the comforts otherwise only available in the city.

This Utopian dream became a reality with the advent of the car. And with government roads, the possibility of suburbia became technically possible. But just because something is technically possible, doesn’t mean that it should necessarily be done. Market signals are the best means of discovering this information. Individual prices revealed through exchange embody information entrepreneurs use to discover consumer demand and determine scarcity. A major factor in Post WW2 Canada was exempt from this process. Roads, and the whole highway system, were already monopolized by the centralized state. The sudden profitability found in developing rural lands for residential purposes was aided by the non-market actions of building government roads.

Critics of suburban life (usually urban types themselves) are at least somewhat correct in their criticism of the suburbs:

But markets in the Suburban City are, in a way, non-existent. For many, the suburban home is an island of private life surrounded by other private islands. Everyone commutes somewhere. The suburban neighbourhood offers nothing more than residential homes, ensuring that streets remain empty and void of commercial activities. Children may play in the streets, but there is no natural adult supervision. Contrast this to a city neighbourhood, where the streets are the best places for children. With a mixture of commercial activity, residential homes, apartments and other city neighbourhoods immediately adjacent to either side — the presence of people is always guaranteed. There is a natural “eyes on the street,” where people ensure law and order through their everyday actions.

At 0 and 3, the Vikings bandwagon is pretty much empty

Filed under: Football — Tags: , , — Nicholas @ 07:41

Yesterday’s game at the Metrodome was supposed to be an easy romp for the Minnesota Vikings. The visiting Cleveland Browns had supposedly given up on the season, starting their third-string quarterback and trading away their top running back to the Colts. The only challenge was to be whether Adrian Peterson would score his first touchdown before Jared Allen recorded a sack. That’s certainly not how the game worked out…

Right after the final whistle blew on this mess, 1500ESPN‘s Jeff Dubay and Judd Zulgad have a few thoughts on the catastrophe:

The strength of the Vikings is supposed to be their running game and the offensive and defensive lines. Adrian Peterson can’t do much if there are no holes being opened for him — just as Christian Ponder can’t do much if the defenders are getting to him (six sacks yesterday). The Vikings’ defensive scheme depends on the front four getting pressure on the opposing quarterback, but Cleveland’s third-string guy, starting his second career game, threw the ball more than fifty times. The weakest area for Minnesota is the defensive secondary, and they were about to suit up the head trainer to go in by the end of the game — Chris Cook was injured, Jamarca Sanford was injured, A.J. Jefferson was injured … there were no more fresh bodies to throw on to the field after that.

Even the special teams — normally a strength — gave up some highlight reel plays including falling for a fake punt and a fake field goal. Cleveland’s Spencer Lanning was apparently the first player since 1968 to have a punt, PAT, and a touchdown pass in the same game.

Adam Carlson of The Viking Age had this to say:

  • The Vikings secondary got beat on a regular basis. We saw AJ Jefferson get burned so bad by Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon that the fire department is still working on putting out the flames. The injures to Cook and Sanford didn’t help, but today Josh Gordon looked like Calvin Johnson out there.
  • The offensive line struggled. There’s no polite way to say this. For the Vikings to win games, the offensive line needs to play better. Pressure came from everywhere to get to Ponder and Peterson before they had time to get things going.
  • The play calling and personnel were questionable at best all day. When the Vikings needed to go the distance of the field in less than a minute with only one time out, short passes to the middle of the field were called. In that situation, the team needs to be more aggressive.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Overall, the Minnesota Vikings should be extremely disappointed to be at 0-3 right now will have to have a major turnaround soon to even try to get back into this season. If the Vikings fail to get things going, we could see major changes to this team coming much sooner than expected.

The Daily Norseman‘s Ted Glover calls this week’s Stock Market Report the ‘Cleveland Steamer’ edition (don’t Google that term if you don’t recognize it):

Junk Bonds:

The Offensive Line. Mother of God, how can you be so terrible? HOW? There is very little running room for Adrian Peterson, Christian Ponder has zero time to throw, and collectively, this group got pushed around more than the French Army. Do you guys remember when we were relieved that Phil Loadholt got re-signed to his big contract right as free agency was beginning? Me either.

The Defensive Line. Mother of God, how can you be so terrible? HOW? Run defense was okay today, but quite frankly, the Browns didn’t need to run. Brian Hoyer…BRIAN HOYER…looked like a first ballot hall of famer. Why? Because there was zero pressure for almost the entire game. None. Look, I’m aware that the Tampa-2 scheme is one that emphasizes pressure from the line…but this isn’t 2009. Pat Williams is gone, and Kevin Williams isn’t what he was, and Jared Allen and Brian Robison have been non-factors to this point (although Robison did get a sack today). This line has gotten old and ineffective, and they need help generating pressure.

The Entire Coaching Staff. Other than the first offensive and defensive series of the game, this team looked and played uninspired football, and it seemed like they were expecting Cleveland to just throw in the towel. It doesn’t work that way in the NFL, and all credit to the Browns here. They played like they wanted it, and the Browns coaching staff ran circles around the Vikings staff all day. Leslie Frazier challenged a play he couldn’t, Bill Musgrave…oh, Bill Musgrave…apparently only has two plays in the playbook (more later), Alan Williams let Brian Hoyer become the talk of the NFL, and Mike Priefer was caught flat footed on special teams not once, but twice.

AJ Jefferson. In the litany of terrible Vikings defensive backs, AJ Jefferson is moving into Wasswa Serwanga territory. He leaves more cushion on a receiver than you would find on an oversized couch, is more allergic to contact than Miley Cyrus is to normal, and has absolutely no ability to make a play. Other than that, he has all the qualities one would possess to play in the NFL.

Update: Arif passes on some PFF grades for yesterday’s game:

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