Quotulatiousness

August 3, 2013

Energy efficiency does not equate to lower energy usage

Filed under: Britain, Economics, History — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 10:48

Tim Harford talks about an obscure 19th century prognosticator and the implications of one of his predictions:

Despite Keynes’s admiration, Jevons might now be forgotten, save for one famous prediction and one intriguing argument. The famous prediction — that the UK’s economic prosperity was at risk because the country would run out of viable reserves of coal — was contained in The Coal Question (1865), a book that made Jevons a celebrated pundit at the age of 29. The coal industry did fall into decline. Production peaked exactly a century ago, when there were 1.1 million coal miners — four times as many as when Margaret Thatcher was elected in 1979. Whether this had much to do with the fall of the Empire is a fascinating question.

Jevons remains notable in some circles for an argument he made in The Coal Question, rebutting critics who claimed that a coal shortage was no problem because steam engines would become dramatically more efficient. Jevons replied: “It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth.” This idea became known as the Jevons paradox: that energy efficiency does not reduce energy consumption. When light was hugely expensive, a person might read by the fickle flame of a single candle; now it’s so cheap we flood our cities with it. Double glazing could mean lower heating bills but in practice it means warmer houses.

So was Jevons right? That’s a hotly contested topic. On a microeconomic level, he was not: a 50 per cent increase in the energy efficiency of a device will lead to increased use, but rarely to the doubling in usage that would be necessary for Jevons to be correct. Aha, reply Jevons’s defenders: even if a fuel-sipping car does not induce me to drive much further, I may still spend my cash savings on some other energy-guzzling device. True. But energy is a small enough part of the economy — about 6 to 10 per cent — that the actual cash savings available to spend elsewhere will usually be modest.

Obama may avoid meeting Putin at the G20 summit

Filed under: Government, Russia, USA — Tags: , , , , — Nicholas @ 09:35

An interesting sidelight to the suddenly more acrimonious relationship between the Russian and American leaders:

Now that Edward Snowden has been granted temporary asylum in Russia and he has been allowed to leave the airport, things are starting to hot up between the US and Russia. Washington has expressed that they are ‘disappointed’ by the reaction of Moscow and there have been allusions to the fact that President Obama may even go as far as to snub President Vladimir Putin and refuse to meet with him in September 2013.

Russia agreed yesterday to grant Edward Snowden asylum but as a consequence this has put a strain on the relations between Russia and the USA, despite the fact that Putin said that he wanted in no way to jeopardize the relations with the US. Although, sometimes, unbelievably in politics what a politician states is neither firstly necessarily what he thinks nor secondly necessarily what he does; or neither at the same time in the majority of the cases.

But, certainly Putin is probably thinking of himself rather than Obama at the present time. Sheltering Snowden means that he will be able to publically slap Obama in the face and send a strong message of propaganda to his own citizens, telling them that he is not the only one in the world not to respect human rights. If the US does it, then anyone can do it. Secondly, there are 90% of Russians that believe that Snowden’s actions are positive, rekindling the great East-West divide of old, or at least keeping that ideological fire burning bright. There is also the added bonus of it being now possible for Putin to rally up some support in the wake of criticism for arresting opposition leader Alexey Navalny and slapping a five-year prison sentence on him. Putin also has to wage war upon the detractors of his economic policies and face criticism of the slowing down in the Russian economy, with a 30% possibility that the country will enter a recession in 2014 (up from a 20% risk last month), according to a survey by Bloomberg. This affair will help Putin rally support, but it will also galvanize his status in world affairs. He will be empowered to declare that Russia is still a force to be reckoned with and a role to play in geopolitical affairs taking place.

In a recent poll in Russia (Levada Center) there were 43% of Russians that supported Russia’s granting of asylum to Snowden towards the end of July. Only 29% were against it.

But, Putin had very little choice, didn’t he? Snowden was almost barred from leaving the country and flying elsewhere. Either Putin took the decision to hand over Snowden to the US authorities or to provide a safe haven for him in Russia. The first solution would have destroyed his public image and made it look as if he were obsequiously obeying Uncle Sam. The second was the only one that would boost the troops at home.

Now, Washington has hinted that Obama may snub a private meeting with Putin when Obama makes his first public visit to Russia since Putin was reelected in March last year, when Moscow hosts the G20 summit. According to sources at the White House, Obama is presently weighing up the “utility” of the meeting and may even cancel going all together to the summit.

Sherlock Series 3 Teaser Trailer

Filed under: Britain, Media — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 00:09

More about this programme: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b018ttws Sherlock returns but will things ever be the same again?

“RCMP officers stopping American citizens on the Buffalo side of their border”

Filed under: Cancon, Law, USA — Tags: , , , — Nicholas @ 00:03

Where’s the outrage? Nobody seems to care! Oh, but I got the nationalities confused in that headline:

Bit by bit, agreement by agreement, Canada is giving away more and more in the name of trade. To Conservatives, none of this is a threat to our sovereignty, as if the very act of stating so makes it so.

But let us consider this fantasy scenario: RCMP officers stopping American citizens on the Buffalo side of their border. Picture the horrified expression of those resilient New Yorkers as they are forced to slow down on their Interstate highway so as to be greeted by a smiling RCMP officer who is to inspect their property, ask questions about where they live, where they’ve come from, and the like — all part of a so called “pre-clearing” program.

Of course, this scene would never occur. The United States protects, obsessively, their sovereignty. But here in Canada, armed American police officers will now be able to stop Canadians, in Canada, inspecting, checking and asking questions.

Again, the Conservatives will tell us that an armed American cop in Canada is all about trade, jobs and security, not sovereignty. If this is true, then can we not expect to see Mounties stopping Americans on the Buffalo side?

I blogged about this issue last year, too.

Wendy McElroy on the “invasive weed” threatening public schooling

Filed under: Bureaucracy, Education, Government, Liberty — Tags: , — Nicholas @ 00:01

Her most recent article in The Freeman talks about homeschooling in the United States:

To government, homeschooling resembles a weed that spreads and resists control. To homeschooling parents, it is the flowering of knowledge and values within children who have been abandoned or betrayed by public schools. A great tension exists between the two perspectives. Homeschooling’s continued growth has only heightened it.

The federal government has reacted by attempting to increase its control over homeschooling, for example, by pushing for increased regulation of homeschool curricula. But the federal government is hindered by certain factors. For one thing, education is generally the prerogative of individual states. Nevertheless, the federal government can often impose its will by threatening to withhold federal funds from states that do not comply with its measures.

But homeschooling parents cannot be threatened by a withdrawal of money they don’t receive. As it is, they are paying double. They pay taxes to support public schools from which they draw no benefit and they pay again in homeschooling money and in terms of lost opportunities such as the full-time employment of both parents. The “profit” they receive is a solid education for their children. What they want from the government is to be left alone.

The federal government is also hindered by not being able to play the “it’s for the children” card that justifies so many intrusive policies. Homeschooled children routinely display better development than public school students.

A 2012 article in Education News called the “consistently high placement of homeschooled kids on standardized assessment exams … one of the most celebrated benefits of homeschooling.” Education News compared the quality of homeschooling to that of public schooling. “Those who are independently educated typically score between the 65th and 89th percentile on such exams, while those attending traditional schools average on the 50th percentile. Furthermore, the achievement gaps, long plaguing school systems … aren’t present in the homeschooling environment. There’s no difference in achievement between sexes, income levels, or race/ethnicity.” Studies also indicate that homeschooled children are better socialized with both peers and adults.

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