I’ve met Andrew Coyne. We had a pleasant chat about political matters a few years ago (although I was one of dozens of Toronto-area bloggers he talked with that night: I doubt he remembers me). I often agree with his writings (and even when I don’t, he’s usually quotable). But how would he fare as a candidate for the Liberal leadership? Abacus ran the numbers:
Nationally, most Canadians told us they didn’t know enough about Mr. Coyne to say whether they had a favourable or unfavourable impression of him. Sixty-four percent were not sure of their opinion while 15% said they had a favourable impression while 21% had an unfavourable impression. Unfortunately for Mr. Coyne, the percentage of respondents who had “very unfavourable” was higher than those who had a “very favourable” impression of him (9% very unfavourable vs. 3% very favourable).
Nonetheless, there are “pockets” of Coynemania out there.
- Men are slightly more likely to have a favourable impression of him than women (men 18% favourable, women 12% – women were also much more likely to be unsure).
- There was no significant age difference although older Canadians (no surprisingly) were more likely to be aware of Mr. Coyne.
- Regionally, he is more popular in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (25% favourable) than in other regions of the country. He is a tough sell in Quebec where his favourable rating is a mere 8%.
- Considering his occupation and the audience likely to read and watch him, it is no surprise that respondents with a university degree were most aware and favourable to Mr. Coyne. 24% of those with a bachelor’s degree and 29% of those with a post-graduate degree had a favourable impression of the National Post columnist.
- He is also more likely to be viewed favourably by those who live in urban communities (urban 18% favourable, suburban 13% favourable, rural 12% favourable).
- Mr. Coyne is also viewed more favourable by those who own stocks, bonds, or mutual funds: 20% favourable vs. 10% among those who don’t own those kinds of investments.
- Finally, there isn’t a significant partisan difference. Those who voted Liberal in 2011 are only slightly more likely to view him positively than NDP and CPC voters but the differences are marginal. He is a post-partisan candidate!
I don’t know if he’s actually interested in a political career, but he’d at least be a different kind of candidate than the Liberals have had in decades. I’ve never voted Liberal in my life, but I could imagine voting for a Liberal if Andrew Coyne was the Liberal leader. He appears to actually believe in smaller government and free markets — which is why he’d never be able to run as a Conservative. He’s on the record as being almost libertarian in his views on individual rights (especially on Nanny State issues) — which is why he couldn’t run as a New Democrat.
It’s not clear whether there are any members of today’s Liberal Party of Canada who could cope with a classical liberal as leader. But it would create a viable third choice in federal politics: that’s worth a lot in my books.
Update: There’s a Twitter hashtag for the movement: #coyne4lpc, and Jesse Helmer points out that there’s a Facebook group, too:
@nrusson you may want to check out http://t.co/HeQMo71H. Started by Liberals, so there's certainly some who support the idea.
— Jesse Helmer (@jesse_helmer) June 26, 2012
Update, the second: Apparently Andrew Coyne is getting into the swing of being a big-time politician, having already fired his first campaign manager:
Can't believe the way @acoyne callously sacked campaign manager @NPSteve. Will hurt him with the prized cartoon-reading-illiterate demo.
— Colby Cosh (@colbycosh) June 26, 2012
This really is a dumb idea. Why would Andrew Coyne give up his lucrative position at Postmedia to do this? He has no experience in the political arena. He’s never suggested he’s even interested in this position. This “movement” is silly and a waste of time.
Comment by LyndonCanada — June 26, 2012 @ 11:12
Well, you can read it one of two ways: 1) the Liberals really are out of potential candidates for leader other than Justin Trudeau and are desperate for anyone else to join the race so it’s not a coronation. 2) Coyne would be an absolutely kick-ass leader who might be able to lead the Liberals back to power.
Whether Andrew Coyne is interested is beside the point, as it’s a “draft” movement not an “exploratory committee” or what-have-you.
Personally, I think you’re right that Mr. Coyne is better placed to have influence in Canadian politics as a columnist than spending his next five years trying to apply CPR to a dying party.
But it’d be all kinds of fun for those of us on the sidelines if he did take this on. (But what do I know … I think Maxime “Mad Max” Bernier would be a heck of a leader for the Tories.
Comment by Nicholas — June 26, 2012 @ 11:21
So… Coyne can play spoiler to the Young Pretender to the Liberal Throne, and whether he wins or loses the leadership, merely delays the inevitable moment when Trudeau the Lesser gets anointed. If he wins, he has to stop being snarky in print and apply a veneer of gilding to whatever crazy ideas the caucus and rank and file make him adopt, and try to sell Canadians on those ideas, too. If he loses, he has to be less snarky in print, attempt to be a Liberal retainer for a couple years until the next election, in the hope of being a star candidate and ministry hopeful. And sell the public on whatever crazy ideas the caucus and the rank and file come up with.
Whereas if he doesn’t run at all, he can watch the grand spectacle of The Last Liberal Leader—headed by the scion of a legendary family—fight the Last Great Fight, either preserving the brand or consigning it to the ash heap of history. Beholden to no political masters, he can snark all he wants and play the wise old journalist in doing so. Or in short, remember how brilliant we all thought Michael Ignatieff was, back when he was a Harvard professor? How smart do you think he is now? Ever wonder why David Miller’s at Harvard but Ignatieff is working at much less lofty UofT?
I don’t see an upside to getting on the Liberal train, unless you are 110% sure the party will not just survive, but resume its role as the nation’s Natural Governing Party.
Comment by Chris Taylor — June 26, 2012 @ 11:56
Yes, that would be the danger, assuming that after losing he would still be interested in staying in party politics. And I’d hate to lose such a useful source of quotations. 😉
Comment by Nicholas — June 26, 2012 @ 12:22